841
FXAK69 PAFG 011400
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
600 AM AKDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions will trend drier across the Interior today as attention
turns to North Slope, where a series of fronts tracking E/SE will
bring scattered to widespread rain/snow showers today into
Wednesday farther north. Convective snow showers could lead to
heavy snow at times, with highest snow accumulations through
Wednesday expected in the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast.
Light rain and high elevation snow showers will track southeast
across the Interior later today into tonight and Wednesday
associated with an Arctic front working over the Brooks Range.
Out west, a strong low pressure system is expected to move into
the Bering Sea midweek. Widespread moderate to heavy rain and
gusty winds will build into Western Alaska Wednesday into
Thursday as a warm front moves in, with those impacts pushing
northeast into the Interior Thursday into Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Isolated rain and high elevation snow showers will continue
  across the Eastern Interior today. An Arctic front working
  southeast over the Brooks Range later today into tonight and
  Wednesday will support another round of scattered
  rain/mountain snow showers.

- Clearer skies this morning across much of the Interior has led
  to lows dropping to the upper 20s to low 30s, with warmer
  areas in the mid 30s to low 40s. Highs today will be in the
  upper 40s to mid 50s.

- Cloudier skies will build in tonight into early Wednesday with
  the Arctic front, with lows dropping to the low to mid 30s.
  Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. Winds out of
  the W/NW will pick up throughout the day Wednesday, with gusts
  around 20 to 30 mph.

- The first widespread hard freeze is expected across the
  Interior Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as clearing
  skies support the coldest temperatures we have seen so far
  this season. With lows dropping to the 20s to low 30s
  regionwide, Thursday morning is shaping up to the coldest in
  over three months.

- Atmospheric river moisture from a strong low pressure system
  in the Bering Sea will lift northeast into the Interior
  Thursday into Friday, with widespread rain and breezy gap
  winds through Alaska Range passes. Winds gusts at Windy Pass
  south of Healy and north of Isabel south of Delta could see
  gusts peak around 40 to 50 mph.

- A first look at rainfall amounts Thursday through Friday night
  shows around 0.50 to 1.00 inches for the Central Interior west
  of and including FNSB, and 0.10 to 0.25 inches east of FNSB.
  Driest conditions will be just north of the Alaska Range and
  Alcan Border, with dry conditions expected in the Upper
  Tanana/Fortymile region.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue to build
  into Northwest Alaska and the Northern Interior today into
  Wednesday as a series of fronts drop southeast from the
  Chukchi Sea. Winds will remain breezy in this corridor out of
  the W/NW with gusts to around 20 to 30 mph.

- Atmospheric river moisture from a strong low pressure system
  in the Bering Sea will lift northeast across the West Coast
  throughout the day Wednesday, pushing into the Western
  Interior Wednesday night into Thursday. Widespread moderate to
  heavy rain and gusty winds are expected regionwide with this
  system.

- A first look at rainfall amounts Wednesday through Thursday
  night shows around 0.50 to 1.50 inches across all of Western
  Alaska, with highest totals at St. Lawrence Island and the
  Southern Seward Peninsula. Locally wetter spots could approach
  two inches.

- Strongest winds Wednesday through Thursday will be out of the
  E/SE, shifting to the S/SW late Thursday into Friday as winds
  lessen. Peaks wind gusts are expected to be around 30 to 50
  mph across the West Coast (strongest at St. Lawrence Island)
  and 20 to 40 mph for the Western Interior.

- While minimal coastal concerns are expected as winds remain
  S/SE initially and favor more offshore flow, winds shifting to
  the S/SW late Thursday into Friday could lead to higher water
  around the Yukon Delta and Norton Sound region. High surf is
  possible in this area, with water levels potentially reaching
  1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide.

- Lows in the 30s/40s and highs in the 40s/50s will see a
  warming trend later this week as southwest flow builds into
  the region.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Scattered to widespread rain and snow showers will continue to
  track east today into Wednesday as a series of fronts track
  across far Northern Alaska from the Chukchi Sea.

- Convective snow showers could lead to heavy snow at times,
  with highest snow accumulations through Wednesday expected in
  the Central/Eastern Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast from
  Point Thomson to Kaktovik. Snow accumulations here are
  expected to be 3-6 inches above 2000 feet and 1-3 inches below
  2000 feet, with a Special Weather Statement now in effect.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend through
  Thursday, with highs in the 30s/40s and lows in the 20s/30s.
  High elevations of the Brooks Range tonight and Wednesday
  night could drop to around 10-20F with wind chills down around
  0-10F.

- A Bering Sea low will send a warm front into far northern
  Alaska Thursday into Friday, with widespread precipitation and
  warmer temperatures expected courtesy of southwest flow.

- A first look at rainfall/QPF amounts Thursday through Friday
  night shows around 0.25 to 0.75 inches for the Brooks Range,
  and 0.10 to 0.25 inches across the Arctic Coast/Plains. Colder
  temperatures out ahead of this system will support a rain/snow
  mix at higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday Night.
Early morning satellite shows a 990 mb surface low in the Gulf
of Alaska, a 522 dam upper level low around 75N over the High
Arctic, and a 595 dam upper level ridge centered over the North-
Central Pacific. Off to the west of the Aleutians, a 550 dam
upper level low has begun to slowly lift north towards the
Western Bering Sea. The main impacts from the low now in the
Gulf are behind us this morning, with residual moisture on the
back end of the low leading to isolated showers across the
Eastern Interior and Alaska Range today. Up north, that broad H5
low in the High Arctic continues to eject a series of shortwave
troughs and associated fronts into Northwest Alaska with
scattered to widespread rain/snow showers. The leading edge of
the Arctic front is currently situated over the Central North
Slope, draped southwest over the Seward Peninsula. This front
will continue to track southeast today into tonight and
Wednesday, supporting increasing coverage of isolated to
scattered rain/mountain snow showers across the Interior while
more persistent precipitation chances remain focused in the
Brooks Range north.

The latest forecast for this Arctic front remains on track with
respect to snow, with the bulk of accumulations expected across
the North Slope and Brooks Range, with lighter amounts across
higher elevations of the Interior and Alaska Range. Have gone
ahead with a Special Weather Statement for the Central/Eastern
Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast between Point Thomson and
Kaktovik for more widespread moderate snowfall amounts, with
amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches below 2000 feet and 3 to 6
inches above 2000 feet with locally higher totals above pass
level. High confidence supports these totals with northerly
upslope flow and colder temperatures supporting snow ratios up
to around 15:1 across the higher elevations as summit
temperatures drop to the teens. An initial rain/snow mix along
this section of the Arctic Coast will see a transition over to
all snow tonight into Wednesday. Farther west across the North
Slope, ocean effect rain/snow showers from the Chukchi Sea will
continue to build into the Western Arctic Coast/Plains, with
convective snow showers leading to locally heavy bands of snow.
Snow accumulations in this corridor have lower confidence given
more marginal temperatures along the coast, but just inland we
are expecting totals closer to that SPS amount above.

As this midweek Arctic front works southeast across the
Interior later today into tonight and Wednesday, clearing skies
behind the front will help lead to the coldest night for most
since May for Wednesday night particularly across the
Central/Eastern Interior. 850 mb temperatures around 0C to -5C
will support low temperatures by Thursday morning dropping to
the 20s to low 30s.

Looking back west towards the Bering Sea, confidence continues
to increase that the low entering the Bering will intensity as
it forms a triple point low, which will eject a strong warm
front into Western Alaska Wednesday into Thursday. This system
will be tapping into atmospheric river moisture from as far
south as 20-30N, which will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall
potential across Western Alaska, extending northeast into the
Interior and towards the Brooks Range. Rain will first reach the
Yukon Delta throughout the daytime hours Wednesday, lifting
northeast across the West Coast and into the Interior Wednesday
night into Thursday and Thursday night. Strongest winds
Wednesday through Thursday will be out of the E/SE, shifting to
the S/SW late Thursday into Friday as winds lessen overall.
Peaks wind gusts are expected to be around 30 to 50 mph across
the West Coast (strongest at St. Lawrence Island) and 20 to 40
mph for the Western Interior. A first look at rainfall amounts
Wednesday through Thursday night shows around 0.50 to 1.50
inches across all of Western Alaska, with highest totals at St.
Lawrence Island and the Southern Seward Peninsula. Locally
wetter spots could approach two inches. For forecast details and
amounts across the Interior, see the long term discussion
below, as the bulk of impacts shift into this region later
Thursday into Friday. Another driving force with this system
will be prevailing southwesterly flow, allowing for warming
temperatures regionwide as we finish out the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday.
The extended period begins with a 500mb pattern ideal for
southwest flow into the Interior. An upper-level ridge extends
northward from the north Pacific with the ridge axis over
eastern Alaska. Meanwhile a low in the Bering Sea is directing
moisture from the tropics into Interior Alaska. As mentioned in
the short term, a large amount of the rain associated with these
features will fall in Western Alaska. Still, models depict a
swath of precipitable water up to 1.25 inches coming into the
southern Interior Friday morning. Rain amounts in the Kuskokwim
Valley and even as far inland as the White Mountains could see
around a quarter to half an inch of rain on Friday with higher
totals expected near the source of the moisture in the southwest
Interior. Another push of moisture on Saturday appears to take
a more northerly track across South Central into the Interior,
but with similar rain amounts once again spread across the
western and central Interior, a quarter to half an inch. In
total through Friday and Saturday, areas of higher terrain in
the Central and Western Interior will likely see between 0.75
and 1 inch. Other parts of those regions could get between 0.25
and 0.75 inches. Fortymile Country to the Yukon Flats look to
get between 0.1 and 0.25 inches, and the Tanana Valley southeast
of Delta Junction looks to remain mostly dry, especially
southeast of Tok. The West Coast will also receive rain amounts
between a tenth to a quarter, and up to a half inch in the
Southern Seward Peninsula is possible during this time.

In addition to the rain it should be warmer than it has been
recently, with generally southerly flow bringing a warmer air
mass to Alaska. Temperature should warm up to around or above
seasonal normals by the weekend. The warmest temperatures will
be in the southeast Interior, where temperatures near 70F are
within the realm of possibility this weekend.

Conditions should be less wet on Sunday, but there is another
low making its way along the eastern Aleutians on Sunday morning
that models are unsure whether to send east towards the Gulf,
or more north into Western Alaska. Its trajectory will also have
an effect on southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range, which
look to strengthen as the low nears Bristol Bay Sunday night.
Regardless, the pattern of unsettled weather coming in from the
Pacific doesn`t look to end any time soon.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
With respect to our next coastal storm moving into Northern
Alaska, minimal coastal concerns are expected associated
initially as the strongest winds remain S/SE and favor more
offshore flow. Winds shifting to the S/SW late Thursday into
Friday however, could lead to higher storm surge around the
Yukon Delta and Norton Sound region. High surf is possible in
this area, with water levels potentially reaching 1 to 3 feet
above the normal high tide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The best chance for wrap around precipitation into the Upper
Tanana Valley was earlier Tuesday morning, as a low dropped from
South Central Alaska into the Gulf. However, light showers will
linger, diminishing through the Tuesday morning. Northwest
winds follow a similar trend. Their peak was Monday with the
passage of the low into the Gulf, but breezy conditions will
persist through Tuesday. More cool days are ahead of us as an
Arctic air mass descends from the north into the Interior on
Wednesday. Along with the passage of the cold front, there will
be light showers, generally less than a tenth of an inch, and
gusty west/northwest winds which will funnel through the Tanana
Valley, gusting up to 25 mph Wednesday afternoon. Thursday
morning will see chances for temperatures below freezing across
the Interior. Temperatures increase going into the weekend as
the cold air gets replaced by warmer, and wetter, air from the
south. Maximum temperatures should go from the 40s on Wednesday,
to mid/upper 50s on Thursday, to the 60s on Friday and through
the weekend. Relative humidity should be lowest on Thursday, as
temperatures rise but the moister air hasn`t arrived in the
southeast Interior. Minimum RHs may be as low as the 30s on
Thursday before increasing going into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Overall rainfall amounts Wednesday through Friday night continue
to have increasing confidence, showing around 0.5 to 1.5 inches
across the Central/Western Interior, Brooks Range, and Western
Alaska. Locally higher totals up to around 2 inches will be
possible across the West Coast. Expect water level rises on
area rivers and streams as a result of this rainfall, but no
flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     PKZ851.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Troyke
COASTAL........MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...Troyke
HYDROLOGY......MacKay