Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
534
FXAK69 PAFG 151516
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
716 AM AKDT Tue Sep 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...Central and Eastern Interior...
- A series of fronts are expected to move across the
Interior through the latter half of the week. These front are
expected to bring a period of gusty winds and moderate to
heavy rainfall.
- Generally, rainfall Totals through Thursday afternoon: (Below
1000ft) 0.5" to 1.5", (Above 1000ft) 1.5" to 2.5".
- Gusty winds move in across the Interior Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Wind gusts between 30 to 40 mph possible
through the valleys with higher elevations expected to see
gusts between 40 and 45 mph. In Addition, gap winds through
the Alaska Range could see gusts up to 65 mph.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- High Surf Advisory in effect for the southern portions of the
YK Delta coast for water levels of 2 to 4 feet above the mean
high tide line. More info in the Coastal Hazard Section.
- A warm front will continue to move NE from the YK Delta Coast
throughout the day on Monday. A cold front is expected to
push east from Bering on Tuesday. This series of fronts is
expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds across the West
Coast and Western Interior.
- Expected rainfall totals through Thursday night: 0.5" and
1.5" expected along the West Coast (heaviest amounts along
southern portions), 1.5" to 2.5" expected across the Western
Interior (heavier amounts up to 3" possible along the higher
terrain). A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Upper
Kuskokwim.
- Strongest winds move into the YK Delta coast on Tuesday
with potential gusts up to 60 mph possible. Wind gusts along
the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valley expected to be
between 35 and 45 mph. A High Wind Watch and a series of Wind
Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday morning.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Mid to low-lying stratus clouds are expected to continue
across the North Slope, with periods of isolated showers
possible at times.
- The warm front reaches the Central Brooks Range Tuesday
afternoon, bringing another round of rain/snow showers. Most
of the snow will be confined to the Brooks Range with expected
totals between 1" and 3".
- A brief period of gusty, northeast winds around 50 mph
are possible along the NW Arctic Coast on Tuesday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...An impactful Bering Sea low & associated cold front is
in the process of riding up & over a ridge of high pressure centered
over the AK Gulf, strengthening as it approaches the West Coast,
moving northeastward. Then, it will rapidly weaken as its track
turns to the east, moving into Norton Sound Tuesday evening & the
Interior through mid-week, bringing impactful moderate-to-heavy
rainfall & gusty winds for St. Lawrence Island, the West Coast,
Interior, & Alaska Range, generally from the Brooks Range,
southward. This system has a good amount of moisture to work with a
nice plume associated with it. Enhanced IVT values & Precipitable
Water values between around 1 & 1.5 inches generally push in from
west to east from the West Coast through the Interior generally
south of the Brooks Range through mid-week. The higher elevations
may get more precipitation via topographic enhancement, receiving up
to around 2-2.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation from this
system in total. The low will be around 985mb in strength as it
enters Norton Sound. After that, the frontal system pushes eastward,
pushing the aforementioned ridge axis over & breaking it down, & the
low pressure system weakens as it pushes through the Interior.
After that, we move into a general pattern-shift to an overall
troughing-pattern, giving more northwesterly flow, for the rest of
the forecast period, which will give us cooler weather & a series of
weak shortwave troughs moving over, which may bring chances for some
snow showers for some areas, particularly for the northern half of
our AOR & at higher elevations. This pattern-change will shift the
steering-flow for the stronger weather systems away from our area &
toward the Anchorage & Juneau areas to the south of us. For the
north Slope & Brooks Range, they will be on the relatively drier
side of this through midweek after which an upper-level disturbance
moves-in, bringing chances for some light wintry precipitation with
light accumulations for the Brooks Range & northward through the
rest of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY/...The North Slope, Arctic
Coast, & Brooks Range(especially eastern portions & north-facing
slopes) will be generally dry for Tuesday. Light precipitation &
some enhanced winds move into the rest of that area from the
weakening area of low pressure & associated warm front approaching
from the south starting Tuesday evening into Thursday morning.
Temperatures will be cold enough for some of the precipitation to be
of the frozen variety with generally light accumulations of up
to a few inches with the highest accumulations being at higher
elevations of the Brooks Range. Some light freezing rain may
occur for a few hours late Tuesday night through early Wednesday
morning before changing over to snow near Deadhorse due to
warmer air overrunning the cold sub-freezing air that will be in
place at the SFC. After this system completely weakens, the
weather will generally be benign, once again.
For the central & eastern Interior, including Fairbanks: Notably, we
have been continuing to watch the streams in the Chena River Basin
around Fairbanks following the moderate-to-heavy rainfall that fell
in the basin from the Atmospheric River that moved through a few
days ago & the subsequent light rain showers that the basin received
into Sunday that brought the river to near action stage from a
disturbance pushing overhead. The Chena River is expected to remain
just shy of bankful until Wednesday night, which is when the basin
will appreciably start to feel the effects of the moderate to heavy
rainfall that will start today after a bit of response-lag. The
aforementioned system will approach & move through, bringing up to
between around 1 to 1.75 inches of rainfall to the Chena River basin
from Tuesday through mid-week. Thus, the Chena River & Little Chena
River are anticipated to reach Minor Flood Stage starting around
midday Thursday & continuing onward into later in the work-week
before cresting. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued for the
Chena River Basin for the aforementioned timeframe. More about that
can be seen in the Hydrology section.
The Alaska Range passes will experience some quite strong frequent
wind gusts of up to around 60-65 mph generally for Tuesday into
Wednesday morning as that low moves eastward over the ridge,
creating more of a south to north orientation of the tightened
pressure gradient & good enough upper-LVL cold mixing-layer support.
Therefore, a Wind Advisory has also been issued for both Isabel &
Windy Passes from late Tuesday morning into the overnight hours.
Also, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas surrounding
Fairbanks & now expanded to include the lower elevations, which
includes Fairbanks proper. The strongest winds are expected to be
experienced in the higher terrain areas surrounding Fairbanks. These
advisories are in effect for the Lake Minchumina area, the White
Mountains, high terrain south of the Yukon River, & for the lower
elevations, including the City of Fairbanks from 4am Wednesday until
4am Thursday for frequent southwest wind gusts up to between 30 & 40
mph. The wind Advisories were expanded to include the lower
elevations around Fairbanks due to 925mb model forecast wind speeds
being around 45-50kt associated with an approaching LLJ & frontal
forcing & a little bit of CAA that look to be enough to mix
those gusty conditions into the lower elevations in town.
For the western Interior & Bering Sea coast, another bering sea low
approaching & will push into the general Norton Sound area from
southwest to northeast, once again, bringing in strong gusty winds
moderate-to-heavy rainfall to the Bering Sea Coast area & into the
western Interior lasting through the majority of the short term
forecast period as it comes ashore & moves inland. As it comes
ashore Tuesday night around the east-central Norton Sound, the low`s
track will shift eastward, pushing into & through the Western
Interior & Brooks Range through the mid-week timeframe while
weakening. Due to the forecast prolonged moderate-to-heavy rainfall
for early through midweek & subsequent light showers thereafter, the
Kuskokwim River area has also been placed under a Flood Watch for
Monday afternoon through Friday afternoon. The basin could receive
around 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall, & the river is currently near
bankful in McGrath.
There is also a Wind Advisory for the Lower Yukon and Innoko
Valleys, North Slopes of the Western Alaska Range, and Upper
Kuskokwim Valley for frequent wind gusts of up to around 45 mph
expected from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon due
to the tightened south-to-north pressure gradient as the low
pressure system approaches & moves past the area. The strongest
winds are expected at higher elevations as not as much upper-level
support is necessary for those winds to mix down to those
elevations. There is also a High Wind Warning in effect from Tuesday
morning until 4am Wednesday for the Yukon Delta Coast for frequent
south wind gusts up to around 60 mph expected as that Bering Sea low
moves by that area with its tightened pressure gradient.
Additionally, due to this, increased surf is possible for the Yukon
Delta Coast as the low approaches & moves past that area until late
Tuesday night for water levels of around 2 to 4 feet above the
normal high tide line. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory has been
issued for that area until 1am Wednesday. Refer to that product for
more details.
By Tuesday evening & through midweek, the broad area of rain will
have solidly extended primarily across much of the Interior into the
Brooks Range/North Slope in association with the aforementioned low
moving inland from the Eastern Bering Sea. Most of the Interior will
see the potential for between around an additional 0.5 & 1.5 inches
of rainfall as the low shifts eastward. In higher elevations of the
Brooks and Alaska Ranges, precipitation will likely fall as snow,
with a few inches of accumulation possible, & higher terrain, in
general, will see more precipitation via topographical enhancement.
&&
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A weak 1003mb low
approaches the Yukon Delta Coast from the west & dives southward out
of our AOR & toward Bristol Bay & the AK Peninsula emerging into the
Gulf of Alaska, primarily impacting the Anchorage & Juneau AORs
through the weekend. It looks to bring a bit of rain, increased
seas, & wind to the general Yukon Delta Coast area, the Norton
Sound, & western Interior for Wednesday night through the end of the
work-week, with a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch
possible on each of Thursday and Friday, with locally higher amounts
up to a few tenths of an inch in higher elevation locations that
experience any orographic enhancement in the AK Range, but nothing
really too impactful. Overall, for the remainder of the forecast
period through the weekend, general troughing with northwest flow &
cooler temperatures are in store with weak shortwaves rotating
through the flow, bringing continued increased cloud-cover &
isolated to scattered light showery precipitation of the frozen &
liquid variety, more of the frozen variety from the Brooks Range,
northward, & upper elevations of the AK Range, & more liquid for
lower elevations & the Interior & West Coast areas. No significant
accumulations are expected from these light showers.
Coastal Hazard Potential...There is low-end High Surf expected for
the Yukon Delta Coast area. We are currently tracking a low that is
moving northeast just off the coast of the YK Delta through Tuesday.
As of right now, the southern portion of the YK Delta coast looks to
see water levels rise to around 2 to 4 feet above the mean high
water line. Some localized beach erosion may occur. Therefore, a
High Surf Advisory has been issued for that area until 1am
Wednesday. Refer to that product for more details.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...For the Upper Tanana Valley / Mukluk Fire area:
There are no major fire weather concerns with high temperatures
staying on the cooler side & atmospheric conditions remaining on
the moist side with minimum RH values generally remaining around
50% or above through the period. More rain chances move in for
Tuesday through the week with another approaching frontal system
moving northeastward across the Alaska Range. Accumulations from
that will remain light at up to around 0.2 inches or less as the
Upper Tanana Valley area will be generally rain-shadowed by the
Alaska Range to the southwest.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Periods of rain and showers will persist through at least Wednesday
evening with totals upwards of 2.00" in portions of the Western
Interior. The Kuskokwim River is currently running near bankfull in
McGrath & it is expected to rise from the rain received today.
With heavy rain and saturated ground conditions, much of the Western
Interior has the potential for pooling and/or ponding of water
beginning on Tuesday. While the Yukon River is not expected to
flood, smaller creeks and streams will see rises with localized
flooding possible.
In the Central Interior, the Chena River is running higher than
normal. It will approach bankfull conditions again Tuesday,
especially east of Fairbanks. With incoming rainfall potentially
upwards of 0.50" to 1.00" from Tuesday to Wednesday, the river may
exceed bankfull later this week. While flooding is not expected to
be widespread, some localized flooding is possible later this week.
The highest potential for flooding would be upriver from Moose Creek
Dam from Friday through the weekend. Latest river forecasts are
hinting at the Chena and Little Chena Rivers approaching or
exceeding minor flood stage later this week.
After all of this rain falls, rivers will likely be slow to recover
because it looks to remain wet through the weekend. So, if any minor
flooding does materialize, it may linger for quite a while.
In addition to the rivers, there is a potential for pooling and
ponding of water in and around the Interior due to the saturated
grounds. Any areas of standing water may make travel difficult. We
will continue to update as details become clearer.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ825.
High Surf Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ825.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ827.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ830-851-852.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM AKDT Thursday for
AKZ834-838>845.
Flood Watch from noon AKDT today through Saturday afternoon
for AKZ843-844.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ846.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this
evening for AKZ847.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ849.
Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AKZ852.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for
PKZ801.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday
for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ802>804-
806-807-850-852>854-856.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday
for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-
808-809-855.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
Wednesday for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM AKDT
Wednesday for PKZ810.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ811-857.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM AKDT
Wednesday for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
Wednesday for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ816-851.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ817.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT this
evening for PKZ850.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this
afternoon for PKZ855.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for PKZ858.
&&
$$
KEY MESSAGES...Chambers
SYNOPSIS.......Chambers
SHORT TERM.....Chambers
LONG TERM......Chambers
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL........Chambers
FIRE WEATHER...Chambers
HYDROLOGY......Bianco/Chambers