326
FXAK69 PAFG 101428
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
628 AM AKDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Overall, this week will be quite a bit warmer, clearer,
& drier with winds on the lighter side as general high pressure
ridging will be over the entire area. Also, some isolated afternoon
& evening thunderstorms may pop-up over the Western Interior, near
the West Coast, over the western Brooks Range, & the western North
Slope as we get into mid-to-late in the work-week from a weak
disturbance that moves up & around the ridge of high pressure that
will be setup over the region & ample daytime heating.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- A few rain showers are possible Monday & Tuesday as a quick moving
weak disturbance drops south across the area. Any rainfall will be
light and most places will be dry most of the time.

- Temperatures warm steadily through the week with highs climbing
through the 70s to the low 80s by Thursday through the weekend.
Mostly clear skies allow low temps falling into the 50s each night.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- High pressure results in mostly sunny skies and drier weather with
high temperatures approaching 70 along the coast and mid 70s to
around 80 across the Western Interior.

- After a dry Monday, diurnal shower chances return along with a
disturbance on Tuesday and become scattered on Wednesday before
diminishing on Thursday evening. Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances generally shift from south to north Tue-Thu.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Highs generally stay mainly in the 60s with 70s likely near Umiat
by Wednesday when southerly downslope flow develops north of the
Brooks Range. This includes the western Arctic Coast where east-
southerly offshore flow prevails.

- Rain shower chances increase across the eastern Brooks Range and
eastern Arctic Coast on Monday then diminish on Tuesday. Farther
west, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday evening
into late work-week from a combination of the weak trough rotating
northward around the ridge of high pressure that will be setup over
the area & afternoon heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday Night/...The weakening low
that was bringing the west coast some showers & clouds is crossing
over the Aleutians this morning, & it will get absorbed into a
stronger low in the western Gulf today. A general clearing, warming,
& drying trend takes place over the entire area as a ridge of high
pressure generally dominates from east to west. Warm air advection
over the region can easily be seen with the 850mb model temperature
forecast. Light winds are in store over the region as the pressure
gradient is rather relaxed. There really isn`t a risk for gap winds
to develop through the AK Range through the entire week as there
isn`t enough of a southerly component to the pressure gradient &
upper-level support is not there for it. High temperatures are
expected to warm to the mid-70s to around 80 for the Interior &
from the mid-60s to mid-70s for the central & western North Slope
through the short term forecast period. Areas near the coast will
primarily be in the 60s. The eastern North Slope & near the
eastern Arctic Coast will be the main exceptions as they will
primarily be in the 40s & 50s for highs as they will continue to
see some clouds, onshore flow, & some showers through the short
term forecast period around a weakening low pressure system to
their NE.

A weak trough of low pressure moves northward around the
aforementioned ridge of high pressure starting on Wednesday,
bringing afternoon & evening popcorn scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from a combination of lift from ample daytime heating
& upper level support over the western Interior & near the West
Coast to the south of the Brooks Range. You can see this via model
forecast 500mb PVA & 700mb enhanced moisture advection over that
area. Model CAPE values look high enough along with low enough LI
for this to be reasonably possible.

&&

.LONG RANGE.../Thursday through Sunday/...Model consensus is that
the combined low in the NW Gulf that was talked about in the short
term discussion will drift northward, crossing into the Bering, once
again, while falling apart, not bringing any further impacts to our
area of responsibility. Besides that, general ridging remains setup
over the state, continuing to bring with it the decreasing
cloudiness, warming SFC temperatures, & drying across our region
with decent warm air advection 850mb temperature anomalies reaching
around +3 to 7 deg C through the entire week, keeping high
temperatures up to between the lower 70s to the low 80s south of the
Brooks Range & into the lower-to-middle 70s for the inland western
2/3 of the North Slope. Eastern Arctic Coastal areas remain
cooler with high temps in the 40s into the 50s through the end of
the forecast period. The main change that we made to the forecast
was to bring in some chances for some scattered showers &
isolated thunderstorms afternoon into the evening hours as the
mid-to- upper level(700-500mb) support looks to be there, model
CAPE values look to be high enough, & LI values look to be low
enough from daytime heating & the aforementioned trof of low
pressure from the short range discussion continuing to push
northward around the ridge of high pressure for the western Brooks
Range into the western North Slope for Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Through the work-week, conditions will continue to
warm & dry across the entire forecast area with high temperatures in
the mid-to-upper 70s, approaching the lower 80s for some areas in
the western & eastern Interior. At the same time, high temperatures
will warm into the 60s well into the 70s across the western North
Slope, with warmth spreading eastward as we progress through the
work-week, getting into the middle 60s to around 70 for only into
the inland portions of the eastern third of the North Slope for
Wednesday through the end of the week. Scattered popcorn showers &
isolated thunderstorms from the daytime heating and energy from a
weak trof pushing northward over the area are possible for the
western Interior & westward toward the west coast for Wednesday
afternoon into the evening hours. This risk will move into the
western Brooks Range & western North Slope for Thursday afternoon
through the evening as the trof moves northward. Afternoon minimum
RH values will gradually decrease along with the warming
temperatures through the week with eastern portions of the eastern
interior like 40 Mile Country, Northway, & around the ALCAN HWY
dipping to around 25-30% for late in the workweek. Winds should
remain on the lighter side as the gradient stays lax &.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Chambers
KEY MESSAGES...Chambers
SHORT TERM...Chambers
LONG RANGE...Chambers
FIRE WEATHER...Chambers