639
FXAK69 PAFG 242204
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 PM AKDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active, wet and cool weather persists for much of the Interior
with the North Slope mostly staying dry with near normal
temperatures. Thunderstorms will remain from the Central/Eastern
Brooks Range south to the White Mountains and east to the AlCan
today. Rain showers will be scattered around the rest of the
Interior today and tonight. Expect temperatures in the 50s/60s in
the higher terrain with 60s and low 70s in the valleys. Along the
North Slope, expect 40s along the coast with 60s inland.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Continued showers and storms today with storms centered from the
  White Mountains north/east.

- Heavy rain likely Wednesday night through Thursday morning with
  showers lingering in the afternoon.
- Some spots may see up to 1" of accumulation with most areas
   around 0.25 to 0.50".

- Temperatures remain cooler with highs in the 60s/low 70s in the
  valleys and 50s/60s in the terrain.

- Alaska Range south gap winds gusting up to 35 mph on Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Cool and wet conditions persist with rain showers everyday
  through the weekend.

- Heavy rain is expected on Thursday and potentially into Friday,
  especially south of Hughes.
- Uncertainty in exact timing and placement, but there will be
   heavy rain, potentially 0.50 to 1.00" in portions of the
   Western Interior.

- Temperatures remain cool with most valleys in the mid to upper
  60s and terrain in the 50s and 60s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Mostly dry over the Slope with showers and thunderstorms each
  day in the Brooks Range.

- Temperatures will be seasonable across the area.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 565 decameter high remains in northeast Alaska but gradually
retreats to the Arctic through the week. Easterly flow remains int
he Interior with a low continuously in the Gulf of Alaska. One of
these lows aims to bring some heavy rain to portions of the
Interior. This will occur Wednesday through Friday. There is
uncertainty with where the bulk of this lows energy goes. The
ECMWF which has been the fastest and farthest west with it, has
been trending much slower and farther east. This would bring the
energy up and around the Alaska Range, then west through the
Interior on Thursday. There will be heavy rain with this, wherever
it sets up. Right now, expect around 0.25 to 0.50 inches in most
spots south of the Brooks Range with 1 inch or more in the Alaska
Range and higher terrain of the Interior. The 12Z CMC, GFS, and
NAM all aim at giving most spots from the White Mountains to
Alaska Range 0.50 to 1 inch or more. This is definitely a little
extreme and would go with lower totals such as the ECMWF ENS which
has a mean around 0.30 inches and max around 0.75 inches by midday
Thursday. Otherwise, as this moves into the Western Interior,
there will be heavy rain Thursday into Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued wet and cool weather for the Interior with Min RHs in
the 40s/50% range in most spots. The Upper Tanana Valley will dry
out Thursday afternoon and Friday with min RHs in the 30% range.
Otherwise, we are expecting wetting rains mostly everywhere in the
Interior Wednesday and Thursday with widespread rainfall amounts
of 0.25 to 0.50 inches and higher terrain seeing 1 inch or more,
especially in the hills around Fairbanks and in the Alaska Range.
Otherwise, thunderstorms are expected each afternoon with the
widest footprint coming tomorrow. Isolated storms are expected
from the Southern Seward Peninsula to the AlCan and everywhere in
between. Widely scattered storms are expected from Chicken to
Anaktuvuk Pass east. Thursday, there will be stratiform
precipitation from the White Mountains south with isolated thunder
north and west of there. As the strong front moves west through
the afternoon, widely scattered storms are possible from Huslia to
the Brooks Range. Friday looks to quiet down thunderstorm wise
with slight chances for storms around the Interior and most in the
Brooks Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No real concerns as the North Slope Rivers continue to regress.
Interior rivers will be monitored as glacial melt will be combined
with heavy rain Wednesday and Thursday. The Tanana is around 1 to
2 feet from action stage and while we don`t foresee any issues, it
will be monitored closely. Luckily our temperatures are cooler so
there aren`t as many significant melting days this week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Not a whole lot of change compared to yesterdays outlook. The
ridge over Canada will build in a bit into the Eastern Interior
this weekend causing a slight warm up of temperatures to more
seasonal norms. Otherwise, the Gulf of Alaska low will keep
sending waves of moisture and shortwaves to the Interior which
keeps chances for rain and storms through next week. There is a
chance that a piece of the ridge from the Central Pacific gets cut
off by a remnant tropical system and it plants itself over the
Interior. This is pretty low confidence but the ECMWF is showing
this solution. Nonetheless, it does look like more ridging overall
is expected next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Bianco