288
FXAK69 PAFG 242235
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
Issued by National Weather Service Juneau AK
235 PM AKDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- High pressure building in out of the southwest will continue
  to bring clearer skies, dry conditions, and warmer
  temperatures through the weekend.

- Afternoon highs will climb to the mid 40s to upper 50s, as
  overnight lows remain cooler with clearer skies, holding in
  the 20s and 30s, with locally colder spots in the teens.

- Gusty south winds are expected to pick up through the Alaska
  Range passes tonight into Friday, remaining elevated through
  Saturday night. Wind gusts will peak around 60 to 70 mph, with
  a Wind Advisory remaining in effect.

- Rain and high elevation snow chances will return to the Alaska
  Range Friday through the weekend. Isolated rain/snow chances
  look to return to the rest of the Interior Monday onwards, as
  temperatures trend cooler heading towards early October.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A strong Bering Sea low will bring gusty east/southwest winds
  and rain to Southwest Alaska, with peak gusts through Friday
  expected to be around 40 to 60 mph across the Norton Sound
  region, Yukon Delta, and St. Lawrence Island.

- Strong winds will lift northeast into tonight, with gusts
  around 30 to 45 mph across the West Coast from the Kotzbue
  Sound to the Bering Strait and in the far Southwest Interior.

- Rainfall amounts through Saturday will be the highest in the
  Yukon Delta, Lower Yukon Valley, and Nulato Hills, with
  lighter amounts elsewhere across the West Coast and Southwest
  Interior. Highest amounts could approach 0.50 to 1.25 inches
  in these areas.

- Water levels will see minor rises with the Bering Sea low, up
  to around 1 to 2 feet above the normal high tide line south of
  and including the Seward Peninsula through Friday.

- Daily light chances will then continue through the weekend as
  winds lessen but remain breezy, with highs holding in the 40s
  to mid 50s with lows in the 30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow showers across far Northern Alaska will come to a
  close this evening, as high pressure builds in out of the
  southwest with drier conditions and clearer skies.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into the weekend as
  conditions remain predominantly dry, with isolated showers
  possible out across the Western Arctic Coast and Western
  Brooks Range Friday into the weekend.

- Rain/snow chances will lift northeast early next week to
  encompass all of the North Slope and Brooks Range, as
  temperatures begin to trend cooler heading towards early
  October.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into Northern Alaska southwest to
northeast will continue to bring clearer skies, drier
conditions, and warming temperatures into the weekend across
much the region, as a strong Bering Sea low moves towards
Southwest Alaska into Friday with widespread rain and gusty
winds. A front will move onshore to the Y-K Delta and St.
Lawrence Island throughout the day this evening, with the
heaviest rain and strongest winds expected along this boundary.
Gusty winds and lighter rain will move up along the West Coast
and also into the Western Interior later into tonight. Coastal
concerns look to remain minimal north of Hooper Bay, with the
strongest winds favoring an offshore east/southeast direction.
Up to around 1 to 2 feet of water level rises above the normal
high tide line are expected south of and including the Seward
Peninsula through Friday. Elsewhere, we are looking at a great
stretch of quiet fall weather through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows a strong 960-970 mb surface
low in the Central Bering Sea moving east, with a ridge of high
pressure ahead of this system tracking northeast across the
interior and North Slope. A strong front associated with the
main H5 low in the Bering will lift northeast as another strong
surface low through the Aleutians towards Southwest Alaska
becomes incorporated in it, further supporting widespread rain
and gusty winds building in throughout the evening in this
region. Wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph out of the east/southeast
will persist over the Yukon Delta, Lower Yukon Valley, and St.
Lawrence Island tonight, with wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph
lifting north along the West Coast and Southwest Interior
tonight into Friday. Rain will be heaviest along the leading
edge of this front across the Lower Yukon Valley and Yukon
Delta, with precipitation becoming more showery in nature
tonight into Saturday. Farther southwest is where we are
expecting to see the highest precipitation totals, with lighter
totals elsewhere across the West Coast and Western Interior.

Across the North Slope and Interior, high pressure building in
out of the southwest will continue to promote clearer skies,
warming afternoon highs, and drier conditions, as any remaining
rain/snow showers dissipate later today. A pressure gradient
between this ridge of high pressure and the storm in the Bering
Sea will support an uptick in southerly gap winds through the
Alaska Range passes tonight through Saturday night, with gusts
up to 60 to 70 mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect
for these locations. Elsewhere, we are looking at a great
stretch of quiet fall weather through the weekend. Highs will be
climbing to the mid 40s to upper 50s, as overnight lows stay
cooler in the 20s/30s with locally colder spots dropping to the
teens. This will likely be the last period of mid to upper 50s
for 2026 of the season, as temperatures trend colder next week
as we head towards early October.
&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday.
Having already tracked inland, the weakening Bering Sea low
will continue to dissipate on Sunday as energy from the system
shifts to another low entering the Gulf of Alaska. This will
help establish an upper-level troughing pattern across Northern
Alaska. As this feature in the Gulf shifts northward, it will
likely draw moisture into the Interior, bringing chances of
isolated showers to the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a widespread cooling trend will take hold across the
state, dropping daytime highs into the 30s and 40s and overnight
lows into the 20s and 30s for most areas by Tuesday, where they
will remain for the remainder of the period. Farther north,
another round of energy sweeping across the northwest Arctic
Coast will bring relatively light rain and snow chances to the
North Slope and Seward Peninsula Monday night into Tuesday
morning. As this round of energy drives southward along the
Chukchi Sea coast through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence
Island, it will likely produce gusty winds approaching 45 mph
Tuesday into Wednesday, before conditions begin to settle moving
into Thursday.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
As a strong low in the Bering Sea moves east towards Western
Alaska into Friday, widespread rain and gusty winds are
expected to build into Southwest Alaska. The strongest winds
along the West Coast are expected to remain east/southeast,
keeping the bulk of of strongest winds as offshore flow. This
setup will lead to minimal coastal concerns, with water level
rises only expected to be up to 1 to 2 feet above the normal
high tide line south of and including the Seward Peninsula
through Friday. In Hooper Bay at these levels, we could see
minor coastal erosion on the bay side.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Quiet and dry conditions will continue across the Upper Tanana
Valley and Fortymile Country through the weekend under the
increasing influence of high pressure. Expect lows to persist in
the 20s through the weekend (locally coldest in the teens) with
highs warming and min RHs drying as we head into the weekend.
Highs get back into the 50s in the valleys with min RHs as low
as 35 to 45% Thursday through Sunday. The next chance of
precipitation may come on Monday with a few showers possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers continue to drop towards normal values across Northern
Alaska with no significant risks for flooding in the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM AKDT Sunday for
     AKZ847.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM AKDT Sunday for
     AKZ849.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ801-802-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ801-809-856.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ802>806-816-
     817-852>854.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ805-817.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Friday for PKZ807-808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM AKDT
     Friday for PKZ810-850-851.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ850.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay/eal
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay/eal
SHORT TERM.....MacKay/eal
COASTAL........MacKay/eal
LONG TERM......Satcher/eal
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay/eal
HYDROLOGY......MacKay/eal