032
FXAK69 PAFG 022128
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
128 PM AKDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A line of showers is drifting southwest across the
Richardson Highway and east of Chena Hot Springs this afternoon.
Elsewhere, high pressure continues to dominate over the state with
warm and dry conditions. Coastal sites along the west coast and
Arctic coast are even well into the 70s this afternoon. Warm temps
continue Sunday before an Arctic trough comes crashing into the
North Slope where temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees cooler on
Monday. Expect increasing thunderstorm activity across the
Interior Sunday and Monday, with above normal temperatures and
plenty of sunshine continuing through the week before cooling next
weekend. The West Coast looks to remain dry and mild through the
week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Dry and warm weather with plenty of sunshine through Monday for
  most areas. Highs mainly in the 70s continue through the week
  before cooling over the weekend.

- Increasing thunderstorm activity Sunday and Monday with widely
  scattered thunderstorms from Galena to Manley Hot Springs on
  Sunday and from Minchumina to Tanana to the White Mountains on
  Monday. Isolated storms east of Chena Hot Springs on Saturday,
  and near Tanana and along the Taylor Highway on Sunday.

- Southerly gap winds gusting to 40 mph through Alaska Range
  passes diminish Sunday.

- Southwest winds gusting to 25 mph over high terrain on Monday as
  the Arctic trough swings south.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Dry and warmer weather through the weekend with highs 5 to 15
  degrees above normal. Warm conditions continue through the week
  with gradual cooling.

- Isolated thunderstorms in the Lower Yukon/Kusko Valley on
  Saturday, widely scattered storms across the Middle Yukon Valley
  on Sunday, and isolated from McGrath to Huslia on Monday.

- Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm this evening from
  Emmonak to Unalakleet and over Norton Sound.

- Conditions remain mostly dry along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Clear skies along the coast as offshore flow dominates through
  the weekend. There may be some stratus or fog returning each
  night, but the afternoons will be warm.

- Isolated showers in the Brooks Range, but overall it will be a
  warmer and drier weekend.

- Increasing rain and 15 to 25 degrees cooler for all areas on
  Monday as an Arctic trough drops south over the area.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Currently as of 1pm AKDT
Saturday, a line of showers is drifting southwest from just east
of Chena Hot Springs to Birch Lake. A vorticity maxima that
produced an impressive amount of lightning early this morning
southwest of McGrath is now initiating convection move offshore
from the southeast Norton Sound coast. No lightning has been
detected yet, but will need to watch this feature this evening for
possible thunderstorm activity in an area where thunderstorms are
uncommon.

A ridge of high pressure persists over mainland Alaska
with low pressure systems in the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and
High Arctic. Moisture continues to be advected into Interior
Alaska both from the low in the Bering Sea from the southwest and
from the low in the Gulf of Alaska from the southeast. The low in
the Gulf will move east over Northern British Columbia by Monday
morning as the trough associated with the low in the high arctic
drops south over the North Slope. This will bring the first of a
series of rounds of significant precipitation to the area. Colder
air aloft dropping south over the Interior associated with this
trough will bring increasing thunderstorm activity Sunday and
Monday, especially over the Central Interior. Northwest flow kicks
in Monday night through Tuesday behind the trough passage as a
ridge of high pressure begins to rebuild over the area. This will
all bring drier conditions and modest warming for
Wednesday/Thursday. With systems dropping southeast from the
Arctic and a low persisting in the Western Bering, the West Coast
will remain mostly dry, mild, and calm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry weather persists across the state
through Sunday under a ridge of high pressure before an Arctic
trough crashes into the North Slope and brings about some change.
A vorticity maxima over the Lower Yukon produced an impressive
amount of lightning southwest of McGrath early Saturday morning.
The focus of convection with this feature has shifting northwest
to be near Norton Sound Saturday afternoon and evening. Expect
increasing thunderstorm activity across the Central Interior
Sunday and Monday with widely scattered thunderstorms from Galena
to Manley Hot Springs on Sunday and from Minchumina to Tanana to
the White Mountains on Monday. Temperatures will moderate some on
Sunday and Monday but then warm again Tuesday-Thursday across the
Interior with a few 80 degree readings possible again Thursday as
the ridge of high pressure restrengthens. Today (Saturday) will
be the driest day before RHs begin to climb with moisture being
advecting into the ridge from the southwest and the southeast.
Expect breezy southwest winds Sunday and Monday afternoons across
the Interior with gusts to 15 mph. Southerly gap winds through
Alaska Range passes gusting to 40 mph Saturday afternoon will
diminish Saturday night and Sunday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...A ridge of high pressure builds back
over the Interior and West Coast for Wednesday and Thursday while
systems continue to bring rounds of rainfall to the North Slope.
The low in the Bering Sea finally skirts east into the Gulf of
Alaska on Thursday night, bringing southerly Chinook flow to the
central and eastern Interior and a deep trough to the West Coast.
Expect cooling over the West Coast as this happens. After that,
there is a lot of uncertainty on the fate of a low swinging south
from the high Arctic for next weekend. Models are trending toward
bringing the low south along the West Coast or even as far west as
Kamchatka, which would keep conditions cooler with showers across
most of the area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Chriest