208
FXAK69 PAFG 052354
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 PM AKDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Generally quiet conditions are expected to continue
today with similar conditions across much of the state in
comparison to yesterday. A deep Arctic low continues to be the
main driver for the forecast period and is expected to swing a
series of fronts across the state from the Chukchi. As the weekend
progresses, instability will continue to develop allowing for
isolated thunderstorm chances to return to the Interior. A cold
Arctic airmass will begin to move south by the end of the weekend.
This will bring a period of seasonably cold temperature across
northern Alaska to start the upcoming week, with increasingly
scattered showers and a broad increase in winds. A Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for the Central Brooks Range Sunday and
Monday to capture heavier snowfall amounts along the Dalton
Highway. Looking ahead, warmer and drier conditions look to build
back in Wednesday onwards.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Warm and dry conditions will continue across the Interior to
  finish out the week, with highs reaching well into the 60s and
  70s.

- Isolated showers are possible for the Alaska Range, Upper Tanana
  Valley, and Forty Mile Country this afternoon/evening. These
  isolated chances will expand across the Interior for Saturday
  afternoon/evening, with isolated thunderstorms joining the mix.

- Gradually cooling temperatures are expected through the weekend
  into early next week as increasingly scattered showers and
  isolated thunderstorm chances build in starting Sunday through
  midweek next week.

- Dependent on clearing skies, low temperatures Monday night
  through Wednesday night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s for
  most, with coldest valleys dropping to around freezing.

- Gusty west/southwest wind speeds will increase across the
  Northern Interior on Sunday. The strongest winds are expected at
  higher elevations with gusts up to 35 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Dry conditions will continue across Western Alaska through the
  end of the week, with highs cooler on the coast in the
  30s/40s/50s and warmer inland in the 50s/60s/70s.

- Areas of low stratus and fog will continue along the West Coast,
  particularly from the northern Seward Peninsula through the
  Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island.

- Very isolated showers will build in northwest to southeast
  today, with rain/snow showers and pockets of freezing drizzle
  possible as conditions remain predominantly dry regionwide.

- Isolated showers will then continue through the weekend as
  temperatures see a gradual cooling trend. Lows will be in the
  20s/30s/40s.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into early
  next week north of the Brooks Range with highs/lows in the
  20s/30s while warmer air remains situated to the south of the
  Brooks Range where highs in the 40s/50s/60s and lows in the
  30s/40s continue.

- Isolated to scattered showers expected to continue across the
  North Slope throughout the day, expanding to the Brooks Range
  over the weekend into next week. Light snow accumulations are
  expected across the Arctic Coast/Plains, with heavier amounts in
  the Brooks Range.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Central Brooks
  Range for Sunday and Monday to capture heavier snowfall amounts
  along the Dalton Highway, with snowfall amounts up to around
  6-12 inches and wind gusts around 30 mph at Atigun Pass.

- Temperatures will hold steady or see a cooling trend this
  weekend into early next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday Night.

Broad troughing continues across much of northern Alaska. A 500
decameter, Arctic low continues to spin near the North Pole while
ridging in the Bering continues to weaken. This will help lighten
the overall gradient across the state, however some peak diurnal
winds could still gust between 10 and 15 mph during the afternoon.
A shortwave system will be moving south/southeast from the
Chukchi throughout the day, bringing isolated chances for showers
across the West Coast. West/northwesterly flow, aloft, continues
over much of the Arctic Plains with the placement of the 500
decameter low. A series of weak shortwaves will work their way
across the North Slope, providing light snow showers over the next
several days. The shortwave from the Chukchi will eventually
reach the YK-Delta where it will stall out due to another low
moving westerly across the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow some of
the energy from the shortwave to elongate along the southwesterly
flow that is set up across the Interior, setting up a weak
frontal boundary by Saturday. With instability increasing as well,
this will provide the SE portions of the Interior with isolated
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. These thunderstorm chances will
spread to the rest of the Interior on Sunday as the Arctic low
shifts slightly south, allowing more prominent energy from the low
to move across the state. In addition, this will also set-up the
potential for seasonably cold conditions across Northern Alaska. A
Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Central Brooks Range
for Sunday and Monday to capture heavier snowfall amounts along
the Dalton Highway, with snowfall amounts up to around 6-12 inches
and wind gusts around 30 mph at Atigun Pass.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Friday.

The beginning of next week will be unsettled for Northern Alaska
as an Arctic low moves over the northern half of the state,
bringing a front along with it. The front first impacts the
Northwest Arctic Coast on Monday, moving southeast into the
Interior throughout Monday and into Tuesday morning. Widespread
precipitation will accompany the front as rain for the West Coast
and Interior. Precipitation will primarily be snow for the Brooks
Range and North Slope, with a chance for rain to mix in Monday
afternoon and evening. The front will also bring some stronger
wind gusts, especially at higher elevations, as it moves over the
state. Temperatures will trend below seasonal norms on Monday and
Tuesday, with temperatures expected to stay in the 50s for a
majority of the Interior and around freezing on the North Slope.
Overnight frost/freeze is a concern for low valleys around
Fairbanks on Monday and Tuesday night, though temperatures are
currently expected to hover at or just above freezing.

Model confidence is increasing for a ridge to start building on
Wednesday into the following weekend. This would bring the warm and
dry conditions, as well as chances for thunderstorm activity
typically expected of mid-June at least through next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected to persist today, though a pattern
shift is expected towards the end of the week and into the
weekend. Upper- level troughing is expected to build into the
state from the north, leading to the increased possibility of
isolated showers and thunderstorms returning as shortwaves move
into northern Alaska. The greatest chance for thunderstorms are on
Sunday for the Interior and SW Interior with the possibility of
gusty winds accompanying these thunderstorms. High temperatures
will begin to steadily decrease and minimum relative humidities
will steadily rise over the next couple of days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ809.
PK...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....Twombly/MacKay
LONG TERM......Schlezinger
FIRE WEATHER...Twombly/MacKay