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FXAK69 PAFG 220009 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
409 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light rain and high elevation snow showers will continue to lift
  north into tonight. Best accumulating snow chances will
  remain confined above 2000 to 2500 feet, with flurries
  possible across lower elevations where temperatures allow.

- A few thunderstorms possible this evening in the Fortymile
  Country and Upper Tanana Valley.

- Conditions will trend cooler and drier on Tuesday, as
  lingering rain/snow showers dissipate.

- Highs on Tuesday in the upper 30s to mid 40s, while warmest
  conditions will be confined along the Alcan Border and Upper
  Tanana Valley region, where highs will remain around 50F.

- Overnight lows this morning in the 30s to low 40s will also trend
  cooler for tonight and Tuesday night, dropping to the mid to
  upper 20s to low 30s. Coldest spots could drop to the upper
  teens and lows 20s by midweek.

- Under the increasing influence of high pressure Wednesday into
  Thursday, drier and sunnier conditions will prevail, as
  afternoon highs begin to gradually trend warmer. Overnight
  lows however look to remain cool given increasingly clear
  skies.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- An Arctic front working southeast into the West Coast will
  work to support isolated to scattered rain and high elevation
  snow showers through the remainder of Monday.

- Another Arctic front building into Northwest Alaska tonight
  through Wednesday will support continued rain/high elevation
  snow showers along the West Coast, with isolated showers
  expanding east to include the Western Interior.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Highs will be in the 30s/40s through Wednesday, warming to the
  40s/50s on Thursday, and the low 50s on Friday. Overnight
  lows in the 20s/30s will persist, locally warmer along the
  West Coast in the low 40s.

- Increasing confidence supports a strong low moving into the
  Bering Sea mid to late week, with lower confidence on the
  exact track, timing, and associated impacts. At this time, the
  greatest impacts are more likely to be across the SW interior
  for areas from the Yukon Delta Southward. Stay tuned.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- A series of Arctic fronts working southeast from the Chukchi
  Sea into Northwest Alaska and the North Slope/Brooks Range
  will support several rounds of light rain/snow, with a
  stronger front Tuesday into Wednesday.

- This stronger front will support steadier, more widespread
  rain/snow chances, with peak wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph across
  the Arctic Coast. Falling snow and gusty winds could lead to
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

- Additional snow accumulations through Wednesday will remain
  light across much of the Arctic Coast/Plains, with totals up
  around 1 to 3 inches in the Brooks Range and Southern Arctic
  Plains at or below pass level, locally higher above pass
  level.

- Drier conditions are expected Thursday through the end of the
  week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A fairly quiet weather pattern continues through the first half of
the week. Chances of rain showers (with some snow showers in areas
of elevation and near the AK Range) will diminish through Tuesday
across the Central and Eastern Interior. Periods of light snow will
continue for the North Slope and the Brooks Range as weak arctic
fronts sweep through from the North. Along the West Coast, chances
of precip will wind down Tuesday into Wednesday, as a ridge begins
to build across the Interior. Thursday and Friday will see a
strong front associated with a system in the Bering sweep into
the area. With rain and wind across the SW interior -potentially
reaching further northward into the Seward Peninsula, depending
on the final track of the low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly quiet but synoptically complex pattern through the first
half of the week will give way in the face of a larger system moving
into the Bering arriving late in the week. Currently, a deep trough
remains over the interior, stretching down into the Gulf of AK. To
its east, a ridge has begun to build in response to energy moving
downstream of a low in central Siberia. Over the interior of the
state, a remnant front from an old low will keep chances of showers
across the central and eastern interior for areas south of the Yukon
Flats. Shower coverage will diminish Tuesday as the frontal remnant
dissipates fully, but not before bringing some potential light snow
accumulation to areas near the AK Range, elevated portions of the
White Mountains and parts of the upper Tanana Valley. At this time,
am not expecting much in the way of snow for Fairbanks, but cannot
rule out some flurries late Monday night into Tuesday morning for
the FNSB.

For the North Slope and NW Arctic Coast, a weak polar front will
move in beginning Monday night, replacing another system departing
the NE Brooks range. Expect minor snow accumulation of less than
inch for areas near sea level with this system for the N Slope, with
higher snowfall totals of 1-3" for parts of the Brooks Range
including locations like Anaktuvuk Pass. These chances of snow will
continue through Wednesday before diminishing on Thursday. In a
similar vein, chances of some isolated showers on the west coast
will also linger through Wednesday before diminishing Thursday, with
elevated portions of the Seward Peninsula and the Kobuk Valley
seeing the potential for some minor snow accumulations Monday night.

The general drying trend that takes hold Wednesday into Thursday
is courtesy of the ridge which was building over the Bering
moving E into the interior. The ridge will allow for a temporary
rebound in high temperatures the latter half of the week, with
mid or even upper 50s possible for parts of the central and
eastern interior, and upper 40s and lower 50s for the western
interior and west coast. Clearer overhead skies for areas N of
the AK range will help diurnal cooling bring overnight low
temperatures below freezing through the latter half of the week,
before cloud cover helps moderate conditions.

The other story of note is a strong low which will be moving into
the western Bering on Wednesday and then traversing E on Thursday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance alike have been struggling to
pinpoint the exact timing, strength, and location of the low.
Various factors like phasing with tropical moisture alongside
simultaneously phasing with another low moving in behind the initial
one have resulted in considerable instability in run-to-run
tracking. Generally speaking though, confidence has grown in the
system sending a strong front racing up from the S into the SW
interior during the latter half of Thursday, with the low itself
expected to ultimately make landfall somewhere between Nunivak
Island and the Alaska Peninsula, although we can`t completely rule
out the potential for the low to jog further north just yet. What
this means for the outer coast is that prevailing wind direction
will be largely offshore (SE to E), and not favorable for
substantial coastal impacts. We will continue to monitor the
situation closely, as some locations in the Yukon Delta like Hooper
Bay could potentially have some chance of seeing some coastal
concerns with this low through the end of the week, alongside some
minor rises in water level (below high surf advisory criteria) for
some communities along the southern Seward Peninsula. Otherwise
though, do not expect anything beyond rain and wind for our AOR,
although places further south in Anchorage`s area of responsibility
may experience additional impacts. A tightening southerly gradient
Thursday through Saturday will see gusty winds in the AK Range
Passes, with wind gusts likely reaching up to 65 mph, and a high
wind watch has been issued for these areas. For additional
information, refer to the long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The main
weather story for the extended forecast will be the low in the
Bering Sea, bringing the potential for high water and coastal
erosion, precipitation, and gusty winds for the West Coast,
especially the Y-K Delta. As the low approaches, the first round of
gusty winds will begin for the Y-K Delta Thursday morning before
shifting northward to the southern Seward Peninsula Thursday
afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight Thursday before the second
round will begin Friday morning. The first round of gusty winds is
expected to be stronger than the second, with the first round
expected to be as high as 45 mph and the second as high as 40 mph.
With these winds, precipitation as high as 0.75" is expected for the
Y-K Delta and southern Seward Peninsula Thursday night through
Saturday night. Finally, high water will be possible for the Y-K
Delta, but based on the current track of the low, only coastal
erosion is expected.

For the Interior, the main concern will be the the southerly flow
through the Alaska Range. The low will approach the West Coast
Thursday night, pushing weak ridging over mainland Alaska. This
ridging will bring near to slightly above average temperatures to
areas south of the Brooks Range Friday and into the weekend. With
the troughing in the West and ridging in the east, a pressure
gradient will set up over the Alaska Range, allowing for gusty
southerly winds to occur beginning Thursday afternoon. Winds are
expected to increase throughout the evening and into Friday, gusting
as high as 60 mph in Windy Pass and 65 in Isabel Pass. There is
still some uncertainty in the track, so these strengths may change
as we get closer to the event.

For the North Slope, the weather is expected to remain fairly quiet
with the exception being Sunday morning when the winds are expected
to increase along the coastal areas due to slight pressure gradient
changes. Precipitation will also be possible Sunday night into
Monday.


Coastal Hazard Potential... A strengthening low in the Bering Sea
late in the week will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Southwest
AK Thursday and Friday. Wind gusts south of the Seward Peninsula
could reach 30 to 50 mph at times, but prevailing S SE offshore flow
direction should prove unfavorable for high water impacts along our
forecast area of the west coast. However, we will continue to
monitor this system as details on the track and strength become
clearer, and make any necessary changes to this forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and wet conditions are expected to continue for the Interior
throughout the week for Fortymile Country and the Upper Tanana
Valley. Additional precipitation totals are likely to range from a
trace to 0.25 inches for most lower elevations through Tuesday
evening. High terrain could see more than 0.25 of additional
precipitation. Snow is likely over high terrain with snow levels
around 2000 to 2500 ft. However, precipitation could fall as snow
over lower elevation communities when temperatures near or drop
below freezing. As general troughing continues over the next few
days, high temperatures are expected to range in the mid to upper
50s with low temperatures likely to drop below freezing over most of
the Eastern Interior. By Thursday, a relatively weak ridge will move
over the Interior, warming high temperatures into the mid to upper
50s for the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values are likely to
drop from Wednesday to Thursday as the aforementioned ridge moves
in, bringing values into the mid to upper 40 percent range. Concern
for fire weather is very low.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rivers will continue to recede over the coming days
across Northern Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for AKZ847-849.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ811-
     857.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ812-
     858.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for
     PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814-
     860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM AKDT Tuesday for PKZ860.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...SPANN
SYNOPSIS.......SPANN
SHORT TERM.....SPANN
LONG TERM......LEWIS
COASTAL........SPANN
FIRE WEATHER...SRINIVASAN
HYDROLOGY......SPANN