837
FXAK69 PAFG 051346
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
546 AM AKDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
More summer like weather will continue across the Eastern
Interior for the next couple of days as temperatures rise, skies
clear, isolated thunderstorm chances return, and the potential for
elevated fire weather concerns. On the West Coast, however a
different story will play out as rain showers and cooler weather
will continue for the next couple of days. By Thursday night these
rain showers will be shifting north and east to the Northern
Interior and North Slope. As we turn towards early next week, high
pressure is looking likely to build across the North Slope and
the Central and Eastern Interior. This will bring warmer than
normal temperatures and drier conditions. Meanwhile, on the west
coast a broad area of low pressure is possible keeping it cooler
and wetter.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warm and drier weather will continue as daytime highs will be in
  the mid to upper 70s with the Upper Tanana Valley potentially
  reaching 80.

- Gusty southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range passes will
  continue through Thursday with wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph. The
  strongest winds will be in Windy Pass.

- Outside of isolated showers through Wednesday farther west,
  those chances will expand east on Thursday with accompanying
  isolated thunderstorms. Best thunderstorm chances will be
  Thursday afternoon and evening along the Alcan Border north of
  the Tanana Valley northwest to the Brooks Range. Very isolated
  dry thunderstorms could also be possible.

- Temperatures will cool slightly for most on Friday and Saturday
  with highs in the 60s to mid 70s as isolated showers persist.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A stalling front is bringing more rain showers to the region
  through Thursday night. An additional 0.5" to 1.0" of rainfall
  will be possible with the highest amounts on the Southern Seward
  Peninsula and the Nulato Hills.

- Gusty winds southerly to southeasterly winds of 25 to 35 mph
  will continue today before weakening overnight Wednesday.

- The stalling front will begin to be pushed northeast out of the
  region on Thursday bringing a brief period of warmer and drier
  weather to the region Thursday and Friday.

- Another low will potentially move into the Bering Sea this
  weekend bringing more rain showers and cooler temperatures
  across the region.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Above seasonable normal temperatures will continue across the
  North Slope as the Arctic Plains will be in the mid 70s and even
  near 80 on Thursday. The Arctic Coastline will be in the upper
  50s to low 60s. These warmer temperatures will continue through
  Friday.

- Steady rain will continue for the western Brooks Range north of
  the Kobuk Valley today. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
  lift northeast on Thursday across the Brooks Range and North
  Slope as a Bering Sea low tracks towards the Arctic Coast.

- As the Bering Sea low works over the North Slope Friday into
  Saturday, expect cooler and wetter conditions to finish out the
  week as winds remain light overall.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The 545 decameter closed off upper-level low is continuing to
meander over Norton Sound. There is a stalling front stretching
from the Northwest Interior south towards the Kuskokwim Delta.
This front is allowing for continued rain showers to continue
across the region, even with the surface low beginning to weaken
completely. Along the front rain showers will be lighter, but as
you get closer to the upper-level low we will see higher rain
rates from upslope flow. An additional 0.5" to 1.0" of rain is
expected over the next 24 to 36 hours in the Southern Seward
Peninsula and Nulato Hills due to this upslope flow. With the
showery nature these rain totals will not be widespread, and will
be heavily dependent on rain bands.

With the closed off low stuck between a ridge to it`s west and
east it will continue to meander in Norton Sound until Thursday
afternoon. The aforementioned ridge over the eastern half of the
state is keeping 850 mb temperatures of 9C to 12C. These
temperatures will help to support the widespread mid to upper 70s
and even 80 in the Eastern Interior valleys. As we see a low
pressure moving east off of Eastern Siberia on Thursday, it will
begin to push the closed off low from the West Coast northeast
towards the North Slope. As this low moves northeast it will
create some instability across the Interior bringing chances for
isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

Thursday afternoon there are some concerns in the far eastern
Interior that some of the isolated thunderstorms could be dry.
Model soundings at Northway and Eagle are showing a decent dry
layer at the bottom 5000` to 7000` of the atmosphere. This could
be a big enough dry layer to have all of the falling precipitation
be virga, but with PWATs of 0.75" to 1.25" in the region, there
should be enough moisture to overcome this dry layer. The chances
for dry thunder remains extremely low as of now, but with current
fuel statuses across the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile country
it is worth to mention.

Friday afternoon ridging will begin to build back in across the
Interior with troughing from the Siberian low along the West
Coast. This pattern looks to be what holds for the weekend and
even through early next week, but model confidence is low and will
be discussed in more detail in the Extended Forecast section.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large, quite wet, low over the Bering Strait region keeps steady
rain falling and gusty winds blowing over the West Coast and
westernmost portions of the Interior. Less consistent, more showery,
rain continues over the Central Interior and Chukchi Sea Coast. The
heaviest rain is expected from the Lower Yukon north to the southern
half of the Seward Peninsula. Total accumulations through Thursday
lie in the 0.5 to around 2 inches with greater totals possible along
south facing slopes in the Nulato Hills, Seward Peninsula, and the
Western Brooks Range. Wind gusts will be strongest along the Norton
Sound Coast with gusts up to 35 mph. Weaker winds up to 25 mph are
possible through the Western Interior.

A ridge of high pressure over the Yukon Territory keeps the low
stalled in place over the West Coast and keeps warmer, drier,
conditions over the Eastern Interior through Thursday. Highs in the
mid 70s to near 80 are expected for areas from Fairbanks east with
minimum RHs in the 30s to 40s for most areas. The Upper Tanana
Valley and the Fortymile Country could see slightly lower values in
the 20s to 30s.

On Thursday another low near the North Pole pushes front into
Siberia which then causes the stalled low to begin moving
northeast. This pulls much of the remaining moisture into the
south side of the Central Brooks Range and suppresses the ridge
over the Eastern Interior. Temperatures decrease over the Eastern
Interior Friday and Saturday with the suppressed ridge, but
chances of wetting rain remain low despite the low moving closer.
As the low approaches isolated thunderstorms are possible in the
Eastern Interior amongst the isolated to scattered showers
Thursday and Friday. The greatest thunderstorm potential lies in
the Northeastern Interior Thursday and along the Canadian border
Friday. Minimum RH values look to recover slightly faster than
anticipated yesterday slightly limiting the potential for dry
lightning over the Southeastern Interior, but there still remains
a non-zero chance of isolated thunderstorms dropping a few dry
lightning strikes as the remaining dry air limits precipitation.
This chance remains highest Thursday with Friday seeing slightly
greater thunderstorm potential, but less chance for dry lightning
due to recovering RHs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A very wet past couple of days along the West Coast and Western
Interior. In the past 72 hours 1" to 3" of rain has fallen, and
more rain is expected over the next 48 hours across the region. No
flooding is occuring or expected, but smaller creaks and streams
could still become bankfull.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
Moving into the weekend the forecast is in decent agreement, but
the models have large spreads for qpf and temperatures, as the
models struggle to resolve what will happen to the current low
meandering in Norton Sound. Cluster analysis of the ensembles for
Saturday and Sunday shows ridging building throughout the Interior
keeping the region warmer and drier, and broadscale troughing
along the West Coast keeping it cooler and wetter. This analysis
is in alignment with the deterministic models, so there is fairly
decent confidence looking through at least Sunday night.

As we look to Monday, however, Cluster analysis is split on what
will happen to the ridge axis that builds over the Interior. THe
GFS is very aggressive with an arctic trough dipping down into
the Northeast portion of the state. This kind of solution would
weaken the ridge axis over the Interior bringing the temperatures
to a bit more seasonable. The ECMWF on the other hand keeps that
feature further north allowing temperatures to continue to rise,
as warmer 850 mb temperatures could be advected into the region.
As of now we are leaning towards the ridge remaining fairly strong
therefor it being warmer across Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-808-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-810-855.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......Dennis
KEY MESSAGES...Dennis
SHORT TERM.....Dennis
LONG TERM......Dennis
FIRE WEATHER...Stokes
HYDROLOGY......Dennis