939
FXAK69 PAFG 192256
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
256 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Isolated showers remain over the Interior tomorrow with an
  area of light rain in the Fortymile and around Eagle Sunday
  morning. 0.10" to 0.25" of rain expected in Eagle.

- Showers continue on Monday, especially east of Fairbanks over
  the Yukon Flats.

- Temperatures will be near average through Sunday with a drop
  early next week. Most spots struggle to exceed the low 40s
  during the daytime and lows will reach near or below freezing
  beginning Monday night.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain showers linger along the coast through Monday. The
  interior is mostly dry from Sunday onwards.

- Today is warmest in the Interior with highs in the upper
  40s/low 50s. Temps along the coast will be chilly, in the
  upper 30s to low 40s. 40 to 45 degrees everywhere from Sunday
  through early next week.

- A strong Bering Sea Low arrives Thursday with potential
  impacts being moderate to heavy rain, strong wind and coastal
  impacts which are dependent on the track.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers along the Chukchi Sea Coast today and tomorrow
  with accumulations around 1 inch or less.

- Light snow for the Brooks Range and Eastern Arctic Coast
  Saturday evening through Sunday. Snowfall totals remain light
  around 1 to 3 inches. Highest in the Brooks Range.

- A mix of rain and snow showers continues into early next week
  with temperatures hovering near or slightly above freezing.

- A weak front moves through beginning late Tuesday, bringing
  light snow with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible in the
  Brooks Range.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A relative lull in the active pattern sets up with a dearth of
strong systems impacting our area until we approach the end of
the upcoming week. A low in the Gulf of AK will move into south
central, sending a weak front northward which keeps some
scattered showers through the interior through the middle of the
weekend. Scattered snow and rain showers will linger along the
W Coast as onshore NW flow brings in oceanic moisture.
Relatively drier weather through the first half of the week,
with showers becoming more isolated in nature. A weak arctic
front moves into the north slope through the middle of the week,
bringing some chances of minor snow accumulations to the Brooks
Range. A strong system moves into the southern Bering late in
the week, bringing widespread wind and rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A relative lull in the
active pattern for parts of south central and the western interior
through the short term. Satellite and radar as of the time of
writing show ocean effect showers moving in along the NW Coast,
being driven by cold air advection from the arctic moving over
the still comparatively warm waters of the Bering and the
Chukchi Sea. A decaying frontal band which moved through the
central interior during the morning hours on Saturday will move
further north across the Brooks Range and the North Slope
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Expect minor snow
accumulations (1-3") for areas at elevation like Atigun Pass and
Anaktuvuk.

Through the remainder of the weekend, the weather remains on the
less active side - though not quiet. A low moving into south central
AK from the Gulf will send a weak front moving northward. This front
will bring scattered showers for the central and eastern interior on
Sunday, particularly for the Yukon Flats. Monday will see the
aforementioned front stall over the interior, with chances of
showers lingering through the day, and the front itself receiving
some additional moisture support from the by now all-but-dead low
over south central. Still not expecting to see anything in the
way of significant precip totals though.

Tuesday will prove to be a mixed bag of conditions. Across the
western, central, and even eastern interior, shower coverage will be
diminishing through the morning as a ridge builds over Western AK.
Dry weather is likely for most locations south of the Brooks Range
by the latter half of the day. A weak arctic front will ridge along
the northern axis of the building ridge, and sweep through the North
Slope and the Brooks Range late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing
chances of minor snowfall accumulations - mainly for areas at
elevation. For additional information, see the long term forecast
discussion.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Model guidance is slowly starting to converge in regards to the low
in the Bering on Thursday/Friday. Both GFS and ECMWF ensembles have
been favoring ridging in the Central/Eastern Interior, as well as a
weaker/farther south North Pacific High, which would track the low
to the general vicinity of St. Matthew Island before it stalls.
This would keep areas of potentially significant coastal flooding
south of the Yukon Delta, though minor coastal impacts are possible
in the Delta and in the Northern Norton Sound. Strong winds are
likely along the West Coast south of Wales as the low moves in on
Thursday. There will be an area of heavy precipitation somewhere on
the West Coast and in the Western Interior, but discrepancies in low
location and level of moisture make it difficult to say where and
how much. Models are in decent agreement that the ridge over Alaska
will move east Friday into Saturday, allowing the low to make
landfall. However, there is still a lack of consensus as to where it
makes landfall. A track east into/around Bristol Bay is more likely,
but a track north towards the Norton Sound cannot be ruled out at
this time.

Elsewhere in Northern Alaska, the ridge over the state late week
will bring about a brief calm period for the Central and Eastern
Interior, especially on Thursday. With mostly clear and calm
conditions, Wednesday and Thursday mornings will likely have the
coldest temperatures so far this season. Lows at/below freezing are
likely for the entire region. These clear overnight conditions could
also support patchy overnight fog in Central/Eastern Interior
valleys. Meanwhile, conditions remain unsettled on the North Slope
through the end of next week as a series of shortwaves bring light
snow showers through next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential... The strong low in the Bering continues
to trend south which would lead to a lesser extent of coastal
impacts for our area. Currently, the favored wind direction is
south/southeast which for most areas, would lean towards some higher
water than normal, but nothing too concerning. The Yukon Delta is
the exception where water levels may be higher in this scenario. As
far as exact impacts, once we have a better grasp on the track and
position of the low, there will be more details. We will continue to
monitor this as it evolves.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No major fire weather concerns are expected across the region
through the weekend as cool temperatures and elevated relative
humidity levels persist through the weekend. High temperatures will
hold in the 40s to low 50s across valley locations Sunday and Monday
before dropping into the lower 40s midweek, while minimum relative
humidity values remain above 50 percent. Chances of precipitation
reach 50 to 80 percent Sunday through Monday, followed by a
transition to rain and snow showers on Tuesday. Light and variable
winds persist Saturday night through Monday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Chena River upstream of
Moose Creek Dam. While we aren`t expecting widespread flooding,
minor pooling and ponding of water is expected in low-lying, flood
prone areas through weekend. Water levels have crested in Fairbanks
this afternoon then gradually drop thereafter.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ801-802-
806-     850-854.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ804-853.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for
   PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for
PKZ807>809-817-855.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Sunday for PKZ856.
&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...SPANN
SYNOPSIS.......SPANN
SHORT TERM.....SPANN
LONG TERM......SCHLEZINGER
COASTAL........SPANN
FIRE WEATHER...SATCHER
HYDROLOGY......SPANN/BIANCO