625
FXAK69 PAFG 241355
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
455 AM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will continue to influence the Eastern Interior
until Tuesday. As high pressure over the Chuckchi Sea strengthens
it will move east bringing blustery, colder, and drier conditions
to much of Northern Alaska by Wednesday. This high pressure will
be the story for the remainder of the week. This weekend we are
anticipating a pattern shift, as another round of storms move into
the region. These storms will bring warmer temperatures and
chances for heavy precipitation across Northern Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A quick round of light snow is possible in the Yukon Flats,
  Dalton Highway Summits, and the White Mountains Monday night and
  into Tuesday. Accumulations would be from a dusting to an inch.
- Fairbanks could see some flurries on Tuesday, but confidence
   is not high on accumulating snow.

- Colder and drier conditions return Tuesday night. Nighttime
  temperatures will be in the single digits to teens below zero.

- Clouds will continue to clear through the week. Temperatures
  decrease further in valley locations under clear skies as
  stronger temperature inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds begin Tuesday night and last through
  much of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing
  snow are possible as are difficult travel conditions over
  Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when
  we see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.
- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
   pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the
   inversion that develops.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast today through
  tomorrow and increase into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts 20 to
  30 mph by Wednesday.

- Wednesday night to Thursday evening there is a chance to see
  snow showers in the Y-K Delta. Accumulations from these snow
  showers would be up to 2". Thursday evening as warmer air begins
  to move into the area, these snow showers could turn into a
  rain/snow mix.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low Stratus and light snow is continuing this morning across
  the Eastern Arctic Coastline. Kaktovik is anticipated to
  accumulate another inch of snow today.

- Conditions will begin to dry out tonight, bringing clear skies
  and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will remain near normal
  with lows near 0 on the coast and teens below on the arctic
  plains.

- Easterly winds across the Arctic Coast will develop this
  afternoon as a high pressure moves east across the Arctic Ocean.
  These winds will be 20 to 30 mph, and will hang around for the
  rest of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 1030 mb high pressure in the Chuckchi Sea will be the main
driver of the weather here in Northern Alaska this week. This
feature will continue to strengthen as it moves east across the
Arctic Ocean. This high will bring northeasterly winds which will
advect Arctic air into the Interior. This colder and drier air
will dry out the Interior, allowing for stronger valley inversions
to potentially develop. Conditions will be fairly persistent
across Northern Alaska this week ahead of a pattern shift this
weekend. This pattern shift will be talked about in detail in the
Extended Forecast Section down below.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Looking towards the weekend, there is good agreement that the
North Pacific High will strengthen off the coast of California,
and a broad area of low pressure will move into the northern parts
of the Pacific Ocean. The high pressure will steer the low
towards the Aleutian Islands, and then inevitably to Western
Alaska. Accompanying this area of low pressure, there is a large
moisture plume from around 20 degrees North. This would brings
periods of heavy precipitation to Western Alaska, as well as some
precipitation towards the Eastern Interior as the low moves east.

While the major features have good agreement, there is a lot of
uncertainty on the details. The GFS and ECMWF are producing two
different results with this system. The GFS is making the low much
faster, and would see heavy precipitation across the West Coast
as early as Friday. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has a weak feature ahead
of the main low which will slow it down. The timing and the track
of the low will be farther to the east, and would bring impacts to
the Eastern Interior Sunday morning. The track from the ECMWF
would also downslope a good chunk of the moisture, while the GFS
produces a much wetter solution on the western track. No matter
which track this low takes, there will be ample moisture and warm
temperatures. These warm temperatures have a potential to be near
or above freezing across the Western and Eastern Interior
including the Fairbanks Area introducing the possibility of
freezing precipitation, a rain/snow mix, or pure rain. We are
still 5 days until the earliest potential impacts are seen, and
models should begin to come into better agreement in the coming
days as smaller features move through the area ahead of the
pattern shift.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-807.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-850-853-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Dennis