773
FXAK69 PAFG 111452
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
652 AM AKDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front currently extends eastward across the Seward
Peninsula and the far-northern Bering Sea and is gradually
lifting to the north, bringing rain and snow showers to the West
Coast and Western Interior. As it shifts out of the area, the
remnant circulation of Typhoon Halong, which is currently just
south of the Aleutians, will rapidly intensify as it quickly
enters the Bering Sea and starts bringing widespread impacts to
the state. The storm will bring strong wind gusts, in some cases
upwards of 80 mph, to St. Lawrence Island and the YK Delta.
Widespread 60 to 70 mph wind gusts will be possible elsewhere,
including over the northern Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound.
Potential flooding for parts of the Bering Sea coast may be major
if not record-breaking. To the east, much of the Interior will
see breezy conditions with rain in valleys and mixed rain and snow
and snow over higher terrain. Blowing snow and low visibility is
likely across the eastern North Slope Friday and Friday night.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures will be near normal (mid 30s to low 40s) with sunny
  conditions today.

- A coastal storm arrives Sunday with warming temperatures, rain
  showers, and areas of gusty winds. Winds through the Alaska
  Range Passes and along the northern foothills will increase
  Saturday afternoon with gusts to 80 mph possible by Saturday
  night. Strong winds are expected across the southern slopes of
  the Brooks Range by Sunday and through Monday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...

The Main Story:

Coastal Flood Watches and High Wind Watches have been upgraded to
Warnings for late Saturday through Monday ahead of the remnants
of Typhoon Halong.

The remnants of Typhoon Halong will make their way into the
Bering Sea on Saturday with a track slightly to the east of the
previously forecasted track. This slight change in track will
only cause minor changes in most areas as this storm is very
strong. This may be the strongest storm to hit the West Coast of
Alaska since Ex-Typhoon Merbok, with the potential for historic
water level rises in some spots. Possible impacts consist of major
coastal flooding and erosion and power outages with south wind
gusts up to 60 to 80 mph or stronger tonight through Sunday
night.

- Conditions will rapidly deteriorate today, especially south of
  the Seward Peninsula.

- Residual light rain and snow with a north-moving warm front will
  shift north of the Seward Peninsula and into northwestern Alaska
  and the Arctic by Sunday morning.

- The remnants of Typhoon Halong arrive and move north just to the
  east of St. Matthew Island tonight as a powerful storm. The
  Yukon Delta will begins to see its worst impacts tonight and
  into Monday morning. Across the YK Delta, wind gusts in the
  80-100 mph range will be possible along the coast, with gusts to
  80 mph inland. The highest water levels are expected to occur
  from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon.

- Very strong south winds move north into the Seward Peninsula by
  Sunday morning, when the Bering Strait region begins to see its
  worst impacts. Water levels will rise through the day on Sunday
  and may be very high overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

- Strong wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible across the
  Western Interior, especially in the higher terrain, as the storm
  lifts north Sunday into Monday.

- There is still some uncertainty with exact strength and track of
  the storm. Please continue to monitor this dangerous storm.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Coastal Flood Watches Issued for the next storm Sunday-Monday.

- Westerly winds gusting up to 50 mph continue this morning at
  Kaktovik, with weaker but still gusty conditions to the west.

- Snow will pick up Saturday night in Atigun Pass and combined
  with strong winds will produce low visibility in blowing snow.
  Snow will become heavy in the Brooks Range on Sunday and Monday
  with the heaviest snow west of the Atigun Pass.

- The next storm, the remnants of Typhoon Halong, arrives in the
  Bering on Saturday and moves towards the Bering Strait on
  Sunday.

- Significant impacts are possible once again with erosion and
  coastal flooding being a concern once again. It is too early to
  give specific impacts, but it could be a repeat of the storm we
  just had.

- Heavy snow in the Brooks Range is likely Sunday into Monday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A warm front currently transiting the Bering Sea and the Seward
Peninsula will quickly move north into northwest Alaska and the
Arctic while producing light rain and snow. It will quickly move
north of the area. The ~980 mb low that was formerly Typhoon
Halong is just south of the Aleutians and will quickly move to
the north while intensifying into a powerful extratropical
cyclone. As the storm enters the northernmost reaches of the
Bering Sea on Sunday and begins to bring very strong wind gusts to
the coastal areas (as high as 80 to 100 mph over the YK Delta),
there is some disagreement on the exact track it will take as well
as timing. Some models lean more towards having it just clip the
western tip of the Seward Peninsula, while others have it cross
the western half of the peninsula as it enters the Chukchi Sea /
Kotzebue Sound, where there will be additional flooding concerns.
These differences in storm motion and timing could have some
notable impacts on water levels in some areas, but there is
uncertainty on specific details at this time. Regardless of the
track, significant to severe coastal flooding is expected to be
extensive in coverage, with some areas potentially seeing
historic levels of flooding. Aside from just coastal areas,
inland parts of the Western Interior may see winds gusting to
upwards of 50 mph, while strong winds gust upwards of 70 mph in
the Alaska and Brooks Range. As the storm first enters the Chukchi
Sea and then moves east-northeast through the North Slope, heavy
snow will be possible in the Brooks Range, with additional high
water concerns for coastal areas of the Arctic. Additional storms
are likely in the following days, although they do not look
comparable to the current storm as of this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM AKDT Fri Oct 10 2025/

..EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Monday through next Thursday.

The remnants of Typhoon Halong greatly weakened to around 970 mb
will be exiting the North Slope Monday night and Tuesday and will
be 250 nm north of Deadhorse as yet another low pressure system
deepens in the Southwest Bering Sea and moves east along the
Aleutians to be located south of Cold Bay as a 968 mb low Tuesday
afternoon. This low will bring another round of rain and wind to
the West Coast mainly south of the Seward Peninsula into
Wednesday. This low will not be anywhere near as strong as the
remnants of Typhoon Halong. Expect scattered rain/snow showers
over the Interior and West Coast. Low ceilings and fog will
persist on the North Slope. Another deep low will push into the
southwest Bering Sea Thursday night and Friday of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

No significant coastal hazards are expected for days 3 and 4 south
south of Kotzebue Sound, however strong winds and high water
levels will continue along the northwest and north coasts into
day 3. Conditions will improve as this low moves north into the
Beaufort Sea. Another deep low pressures system will move into the
Central Bering Sea by the end of next week. Please see
Weather.gov/AFG for ongoing Coastal Warnings and Advisories.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ801.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ802.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ847-849.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ807-809-813.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ814>818-820>824-826.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ815.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ816>818.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ819-828>830.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ803.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ822.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ824.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ825-827.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ825-827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-817-853-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803>806-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809-810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Storm Warning for PKZ816.
     Storm Warning for PKZ850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

DS