424
FXAK69 PAFG 052114
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1214 PM AKST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and windy conditions expected through the weekend, especially
in the Interior. Gusty winds lead to dangerous wind chills and
areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow, especially a
higher elevations in the Interior and where much of the recent
snow from earlier this week fell. Winds peak Saturday, decrease
slightly Sunday, and decrease significantly Monday. The cold
conditions continue well into next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold everywhere with the coldest spots being in the valleys,
  especially the Yukon Flats.

- Some thin low clouds in Interior Valleys Friday keep
  temperatures slightly warmer by

- Wind increases this weekend with significant blowing snow
  possible in the Southern AK Range Passes, White Mtns and Dalton
  Highway summits. Very cold wind chills expected for most of the
  Interior as well.
 - N/NE wind increases significantly on Saturday from the Yukon
    Flats southwest. Gusts above 1000ft may be upwards of 30 to
    50 mph whereas valleys can see gusts up to 35 mph (WHEN the
    inversion breaks). This continues into Sunday PM, then
    weakens.
 - Ambient temperatures through Sunday, with no clouds or wind,
    will drop into the 20s and 30s below zero. A few colder
    spots, especially north and east of Fairbanks may hit 40
    below.
 - Wind chill values may be as low as 60 below zero from Tanana
    to the Yukon Flats this weekend. Significant blowing snow is
    expected in the higher terrain above 1000ft. Periods of
    blizzard conditions are expected along
 - This could be a significant wind event and end up being
    impactful as it could lead to tree damage and power outages.
 - Blizzard conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday
    afternoon along the Parks Highway from Carlo Creek to Cantwell
    and from Trims Camp to Fielding Lake along the Richardson
    Highway. Through Sunday night along the Dalton/Steese Summits.

- Cold weather continues into next week with temperatures
  dropping into the 40s and 50s below zero in the Central and
  Eastern Interior Valleys.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A cold trend continues through the weekend. Expect minimum
  temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 along the
  coast and in the teens to 30s below zero in the Interior
  Valleys.

- North-northeast winds increase this weekend. Wind gusts may be
  up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast from the Seward Peninsula
  south and in higher terrain.

- Winter weather advisories have been issued for the Middle to
  Lower Yukon Valleys and the Eastern Norton Sound for blowing
  snow and dangerous wind chills. Gusts of 35 to 50 mph could lead
  to periods of blowing snow and wind chills as low as -50F.

- Blizzard warnings have been issued for the Upper Kuskokwim and
  Western Brooks Range. Recent snowfall increases the risk for
  prolonged periods of blizzard conditions. Valleys and channels
  open to the northeast are most likely to see the worst
  conditions. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph could lead to wind chills
  as low as -50F.

- Winds weaken Monday and temperatures decrease again next week.
  Lows potentially in the 30s/40s below zero in the Interior and
  single digits/teens below zero along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow possible today as a front moves overhead,
  especially from Deadhorse east and the Eastern Brooks Range.
  Snow accumulations up to 1 inch.

- Expect temps in the negative teens along the coast with 20s
  below zero inland today, then widespread temps in the 30s below
  zero with some 40F below readings possible in the coldest
  locations this weekend.

- Northerly winds increase today up to 10 to 15 mph along the
  coast and up to 25 to 35 mph through Brooks Range passes. Wind
  chills fall to as cold as -60F through the Brooks Range passes.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Friday through Monday.
At the start of the forecast period Friday, the overall pattern is
dominated by a strong 555 decameter upper level high over the
Chukotsk Peninsula and a weak trough over the Eastern half of the
state. A 502 decameter upper level low moves through the trough
Friday night into Saturday pulling very cold air with 850mb
temperatures around -30F across the Interior towards the Alaska
Peninsula. The cold, dense air that is being pulled along with
this low brings gusty winds across the Interior Friday night
through Sunday and sets up a high amplitude pattern over the
Western Interior supporting a very strong upper level jet. These
strong winds aloft promote slightly weaker winds at elevation and
may occasionally mix all the way to valley floor, especially for
valleys open to the northeast. Frequent gusts up to 50 mph above
1000 feet are expected with occasional gusts of 30 to 50 mph
possible in Interior Valleys. Recent snowfall from the system
earlier this week is likely to blow creating periods and areas of
low visibility due to blowing snow. Areas that received more
substantial snow and are at a greater risk of seeing more frequent
gusts are currently under blizzard warnings Friday night through
early Sunday. The strongest winds diminish slightly Sunday and
weaken significantly Monday.

Ambient temperatures in Interior Valleys are likely to warm into
the teens to 20s below 0 due to these winds weakening strong
temperature inversions. Sunday night into Monday winds will have
weakened enough that ambient temperatures will fall once more as
those inversions recover and strengthen. Winds, however will not
be a factor by then and so dangerous wind chills are not expected.
These colder temperatures continue through most of next week and
perhaps even further.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Monday night through next Friday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Monday night, cold
conditions across the region continue under high pressure. A ridge
pattern in the Bering Sea supports rising pressure across the
region which will help keep the area cold. Models begin to have
significant difficulty determining how to handle shortwave
features and weaker lows that move through the pattern around the
ridge Thursday and Friday. Should these features rotate further
south over the top of the ridge and reach into the Interior,
significant warming is to be expected. If these features instead
move further north and pass the region, then the cold weather
could continue well into mid December. The North Slope is most
likely to see some of these systems bringing warmer temperatures
and some light snow late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809>811.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ848-850.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ851-852.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-829-830.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ832-834.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ833-838>847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804-805-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Stokes