110
FXAK69 PAFG 282331
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
331 PM AKDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A ~996 mb surface low pressure currently near Kotzebue tracks
northeast toward the Beaufort Sea through Friday. At the say time,
this system drives a seasonably strong cold front across the
interior with falling temperatures and gusty west-southwest winds
within the cold air advection regime. A weak and transient ridge
axis shifts northeast across the state from the YK Delta Friday
afternoon to the Canada border by Saturday afternoon. The next storm
system spins across the west-central Bering Sea late Saturday
through early next week with primarily light rain spreading
northeast along the West Coast and western interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

 - Southerly wind gusts up to 75 mph through the Alaska Range Passes
including Delta Junction before diminishing late this evening.
Strong south winds continue until the cold front passage on Friday.

 - Chinook flow continues ahead of a cold front passage that tracks
east across the interior on Friday. This front brings rain then
breezy west-southwest winds up to 35 mph and dropping temperatures.

- Heavy rain is expected on the southern slopes of the Alaska Range
ahead of the cold front passage with heavy snow above ~9000 ft.

 - Except for a few peaks of clear skies Friday evening through
Saturday morning, mostly cloudy skies and chances for light rain
showers later on Saturday into Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

 - A cold front moves east late tonight or Friday with spotty light
showers on Friday. The next system spreads steady rain chances
northeast along the West Coast late Friday night through Saturday.

- Rainfall totals through Saturday afternoon primarily stay below
0.75", but coastal portions and higher elevations of the Seward Pen
and YK Delta and southern slopes of the Brooks Range up to 1.25".

 - A coastal system brings a sustained period of southerly winds to
the coast that may result in another High Surf Advisory and
continued rain chances early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

 - The final area of mixed precipitation is tracking north across
the western North Slope with rain across the eastern slope this
afternoon and will be ending Friday morning.

 - Up to 3 inches of wet snowfall and a thin glaze of ice is also
possible on elevated surfaces, but warm ground temperatures have
thus far limited accumulations.

&&

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

The primary short term hazards continue to be strong south winds
through the Alaska Range gaps and wintry mixed precipitation across
the North Slope. The secondary hazards are associated with heavy
rain that fell over the past few days with a pulse of floodwater
moving downstream along the Koyukuk and Kobuk Rivers. These hazards
are associated with a seasonably strong low pressure currently near
Kotzebue at ~996 mb. A deformation zone sets up across the northwest
Arctic Coast tonight into Friday with moderate precipitation rates
that may be high enough to temporarily overwhelm warm ground
temperatures, particularly overnight. As a result, there may be a
few inches of wet snow accumulation between Point Lay, Utqiagvik,
and adjacent interior portions of the western North Slope. This
system drags a seasonably strong cold front across the state tonight
through Friday with falling temperatures (non-diurnal) behind the
front. Gusty west-southwest winds develop behind the front due to
steep low level lapse rates aided by modest cold air advection aloft
atop warm/wet soils across the interior. EFI guidance is
highlighting unseasonably strong winds across most of interior
Alaska on Friday afternoon and evening with wind gusts possibly
reaching toward Wind Advisory criteria. A brief period of calmer
weather and surface ridging moves across the interior on Saturday,
but the reprieve is is brief with the upper level pattern amplifying
again late this weekend. Upper level ridging builds across much of
Alaska early next week with persistent south-southwest flow becoming
established across the West Coast and western interior through early
next week. Fortunately rainfall amounts appear considerably lighter
than what fell earlier this week and warmer/drier conditions may
become similarly established across the eastern interior.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

The Upper Tanana Valley remains relatively dry with warmer and drier
conditions than the rest of northern Alaska. Temperatures remain in
the upper 60s to low 70s with min RHs in the mid 30% range through
early next week. There aren`t many chances for rain, but a front
Friday afternoon into Saturday may bring a few showers. Strong south
winds continue through the Alaska Range passes, particularly the
area between Isabel Pass and Delta Junction where gusts up to 75
mph are possible through this evening. These winds gradually
diminish ahead of the front then ending quickly behind the frontal
passage. Otherwise, no thunderstorms are expected.

&&

HYDROLOGY...

A flood watch remains in effect for the Kobuk, Koyukuk and Noatak
Valleys through Friday. A flood advisory is in effect for Kobuk and
Allakaket as water levels remain high. Lighter rainfall will
continue in the Western Interior and especially the higher
elevations of the Western Brooks Range where up to 1.25" of rain is
possible along the south facing slopes through Friday night.
Additional rainfall is expected late this weekend into early next
week, but early forecast information indicates lighter rainfall
amounts than what fell earlier this week.

Recent heavy rainfall results in elevated water levels persisting
into the weekend. Keep up to date with all hydro needs at
weather.gov/afg and weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

There won`t be too much change to what we`re getting currently
across Northern Alaska. A low in the Bering Sea will provide more
rain to Western Alaska on Monday as it pulls moisture in from the
Northern Pacific. Another 0.50" to 1.00" is possible from this event
along with south wind gusts up to 40 mph on the coast. At this time,
a high pressure will be developed in the Gulf of Alaska, this will
keep persistent southwest to west flow across much of Northern
Alaska through the week. Several more waves of moisture are looking
likely next week, allowing for more wet weather. The exact placement
of the different waves of rain is uncertain, but Western AK is
looking primed to stay in the bullseye. Temperatures will be near or
below average for much of the week.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

Persistent southerly winds ahead of the next Bering Sea storm may
result in high surf and water levels of 2-4 ft above normal high
tides starting Saturday night and continuing into early next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849-850.
     Flood Watch for AKZ813-814-819-828-831.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ847.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ806-807.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-805>807-810>812-852>854-856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ814-860-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
&&

$$