


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
550 FXAK69 PAFG 072148 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 148 PM AKDT Tue Oct 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Model guidance continues to converge on a more westward track of a powerful storm currently located in the NW Bering Sea with the storm now tracking into the Gulf of Anadyr. Even with the further west track the large wind field with this storm will continue to bring strong winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and coastal erosion to the West Coast and Western Arctic. The Interior will see moderate to heavy rain as well as gusty winds. The Alaska Range passes will see very strong winds. As this system moves northeast into the Chuckchi Sea, the North slope and the Brooks Range will receive a round of rain or snow showers and gusty southerly winds. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Lingering isolated showers and fog this morning in the Eastern Interior. - Moderate to heavy rain will continue through Thursday morning with 1 to 2 inches of rain for most of the Interior expected. The highest amounts will be in the terrain. - Strong winds in the AK Range with gusts to 80 mph or higher possible through Windy and Isabel Passes tonight through Wednesday afternoon, then weakening during the Wednesday evening. - Wind in the Interior will be strong as well, especially in the White Mountains and Dalton Highway Summits. Gusts will be up to 35 mph in the Tanana Valley and up to 55 mph in the higher terrain this evening through Thursday. West Coast and Western Interior... - The Bering Sea low continues to move north and then northwest into the Gulf of Anadyr. - The low will continue to strengthen early this evening and then begin to weaken tonight, periods of heavy rain and south/southwest and wind gusts to 65 mph have moved into into the Yukon Delta, St. Lawrence Island Norton Sound. - Rain and wind will increase this evening in Kotzebue Sound and and Southern Chukchi Sea Coast. - There will be a prolonged period of wind gusts of 40 to 60+ mph from the south/southwest from the Yukon Delta northward through late Wednesday night. Strongest winds will be in the Yukon Delta, St. Lawrence Island and through the Bering Strait. - Though most gusts will be capped around 60-65 mph, some gusts may be as high as 75 mph, especially in typical windy spots/higher terrain in the Bering Strait Region, and Yukon Delta. - Rainfall totals through Wednesday afternoon will be around 0.50 to 1 inch in St. Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and northern Seward Peninsula, up to 1.50 inches everywhere else. - Coastal impacts will be discussed in the "coastal hazard potential" section. BUT, Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories are issued and they have details about the flooding as well. - These can be found at weather.gov/afg North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Winds will generally be light through Wednesday morning. Wednesday evening winds shift southwesterly and then westerly. These westerly winds will bring coastal flooding concerns and significant erosion. These concerns are highlighted in the Coastal Hazard Potential section. - Widespread snow in the Central/Western Brooks Range and North Slope will continue through Wednesday night. Scattered snow showers could persist into Friday. - Storm total snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches in Anaktuvuk Pass and the North Slope, 5 to 10 inches in Atigun Pass and potentially upwards of 18 inches in the Western Brooks Range north/east of Shungnak. - There will also be very strong south winds in parts of Atigun Passes which will allow for significant blowing and/or drifting snow as well as very low visibility. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... The 966 mb in the northwest Bering Sea low is currently moving slowly north and will drift to the northwest moving into the Gulf of Anadyr this evening. Latest model guidance continues to converge on the storm deepening to around 964 mb before slowly weakening this evening as it makes landfall in the Gulf of Anadyr. The models continue to converge on both the track and the strength of this powerful storm. The large wind field associated with this storm will continue to impact western Alaska, the Bering Strait and the northern Bering Sea despite minor changes in the track of this storm with only minor updates to this afternoon`s forecast package and hazards. Please see the various high wind warnings for St Lawrence Island as well as the west coast of Alaska. Over the Yukon Delta and much of the Interior strong winds are expected to to accompany the warm front. There is still a very robust 850 mb jet with winds around 65 knots. With heavy precipitation expected, strong winds from aloft should be able to mix down towards the surface. Behind the front, arctic air will be rushing behind it. This would help to dry out the lower atmosphere, but also create a well mixed layer. This well mixed layer will keep conditions windy as there will still be plenty of winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Plenty of precipitation is expected to accompany this system as an atmospheric river is feeding moisture into Northern Alaska. Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain across the Interior is expected, and heavy snow ongoing in the Brooks Range. Snow levels for this system will be above 5000 feet for most areas until Wednesday afternoon when the cold air wraps back into the Interior. Please see weather.gov/afg for the latest updates on the ongoing and forecasted hazards associated with this powerful storm. && .HYDROLOGY... Southern Seward Peninsula: Moderate rain across the Southern Seward Peninsula will continue into Wednesday morning. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain are expected with higher amounts possible in localized areas, especially near the mountains. Small streams and rivers are expected to rise rapidly to near bankfull along inland areas. Higher than normal rivers levels will be combined with high coastal water levels as they drain into Norton Sound. Interior: Light to moderate rain in Interior Alaska will continue through Wednesday night. Rainfall totals of between 0.5 and 1.5 inches are expected in the uplands near Fairbanks and along the Dalton Highway. This rainfall is expected to melt 3 to 12 inches of snow that covers higher elevations above 2000 feet and will increase runoff into small streams and rivers. Water levels on small streams and rivers are expected to rise rapidly and cover gravel bars and in localized areas approach bankfull levels on Wednesday into Thursday. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... The remnants of a low pressure will bring scattered snow showers to the North Slope and parts of the Interior Friday morning before a high pressure sets in briefly for the Interior Friday evening. At the same time, a cold front will be making its way onto the West Coast, bringing rain and relatively gusty winds. Unfortunately, following the cold front, there will be another, stronger low making its way through the Bering Sea and will begin impacting the West Coast Saturday evening through Monday morning. This low will bring strong winds to the West Coast and especially St. Lawrence Island. This will also bring more coastal flooding concerns for communities along the coast. As the low travels north towards the Gulf of Anadyr, a cold front will make its way across the state and bring rain with the potential of mixed precipitation for parts of the North Slope and Interior on Sunday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 through 3... Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories are in place for the coast storm. The difference between warning/advisory doesn`t mean "impactful/non- impactful". This WILL impact every community in different ways, including significant flooding and/or significant erosion. While some places won`t see "warning level flooding" there will be significant impacts to beaches, air strips, dumps, and more. Please see weather.gov/afg for the latest updates on the ongoing and forecasted hazards associated with this powerful storm. We are expecting significant erosion for many communities along the coast with coastal flooding likely, especially in more vulnerable locations. Most, if not all communities will see some sort of impact with this current storm. We continue to monitor forecast guidance for an even more powerful storm moving into the Southern Bering Sea on Saturday and the Central Bering Sea and West Coast Saturday night and Sunday. This second storm is expected to take a track that may impact many of the same locations that are or will be impacted by today`s and tonight`s storm. Please continue to monitor this second and potentially even more powerful storm. The latest forecasts and updates can be found at weather.gov/afg. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ801-816>818. Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ802-803. High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849. Wind Advisory for AKZ828>830-851-852. Wind Advisory for AKZ837. Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ815. High Wind Warning for AKZ820-821-825-826. Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ820. Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ821. Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ822. Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ824. Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ825. High Wind Warning for AKZ827. Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ827. High Wind Warning for AKZ832-834. Wind Advisory for AKZ838-842. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809. PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801. Gale Warning for PKZ802>810-816-817-850-852>856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-859. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ813-814-860. Gale Warning for PKZ857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861. && $$ CC Extended:SCL