Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
895 FXAK69 PAFG 232005 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1205 PM AKDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An arctic trough will keep light snow over the N Slope and Arctic into mid week. A deep but weakening low over the Gulf shifts inland tonight, increasing chances for rain/snow showers (snow levels 1000 feet or less over the Central Interior). It`ll be fairly cloudy through this week for most of the Interior. This will push Fairbanks International towards the latest "first freeze" of the season of all-time (Sept 27, 1974). && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... There is a large sprawling low over the Mainland and Gulf of AK, with the center currently over the Gulf at 526 dam. Underneath that is a strong 976 mb low. Arctic troughing persists over the Beaufort Sea. North gradient over the Mainland is in response to the deep Gulf of AK low. Snow showers are still ongoing over the Arctic and N Slope. Forecast and Model Discussion... Models are pretty well clustered as the low in the Gulf of AK shifts north and weakens. with arctic troughing shifting into the W Interior. The only noteworthy discrepancy is with a possible weak low moving into the E Arctic on Wednesday, with the NAM and Canadian being the strongest. The net effect is to spread more snow over the Prudhoe Bay to Kaktovik. We favor more of a GFS/ECMWF which has lighter snowfall. Central and Eastern Interior... A wave of energy from the Gulf of AK will rotate inland tonight, bringing rain showers mixed with snow to higher elevations. Most valley locations will remain dry, with the best chance for lower elevation showers being over the Upper Tanana Valley, as well as over the Minto Flats. Snow levels drop to 300-400 feet by Tue night over the Central Interior, so some light snow accumulations of an inch or less are possible. 1 to 3 inches of snow through midweek is likely over the high elevations of the Steese Hwy, with 1 to 2 inches down by the AK Range. Otherwise, it will be fairly cloudy. West Coast and Western Interior... North winds continue through Tuesday night then begin to slowly wane. However, they will continue as an arctic trough persists over the region. Moisture spreading west will bring in rain/snow shower chances to the Interior and eventually the West Coast for the second half of the week. North Slope and Brooks Range... Snow showers are north winds will continue over the Brooks Range with minor blowing snow through Tue. Light snow accumulations will persist all the way through the end of the week with another 3 to 6 inches of snow for the higher elevations of the Brooks Range, with a skiff to 3 inches elsewhere. North winds to 30 mph will continue near Point Hope. Extended Forecast Days 4-7... An arctic trough will persist over the western half of the Mainland and West Coast while several stronger storms move into the Gulf of AK this weekend into early next week. This pattern will keep the Interior on the drier side as a general northeast wind regime persists. Ridging aloft may build in over the E Interior late weekend and early next week which may allow for some partial clearing over the E Interior. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .HYDROLOGY... None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-805-806-850-853-854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-852-856. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-810-851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809-859. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ855. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857. && $$ Ahsenmacher