532
FXAK69 PAFG 192210
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
210 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet weather continue across Western Alaska today while the
eastern half of the state experiences a warming & drying trend as
an upper-level ridge over Eastern Alaska reinforces southerly
Chinook flow over the state. Southerly gap winds through the
Alaska Range Passes have continued to gust upwards of around 55 to
70 mph today, which will gradually weaken from this evening
through Monday morning. Out west, a low sitting around Bristol Bay
will support continuous rain showers along the coast well into
next week. By Tuesday, the ridge over Eastern Alaska starts to
break down and allows for southwest flow to set up over the state.
With this new pattern, an increase in thunderstorm activity &
widespread rain showers across the Interior become likely. In the
meantime, we are continuing to monitor the development of another
low pressure system moving into the Bering Sea for the latter half
of the week for minor coastal impacts & high surf due to gusty
WSW winds. There is high uncertainty with the track of this
system, however, with the models placing the track anywhere
between the Bering Strait to the Yukon Delta. We will publish
necessary updates through the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Warming temperatures into the mid 70s/low 80s this afternoon
  with low to mid 80s on Monday and some upper 80s in the Yukon
  Flats. Temperatures cool back into the 60s and 70s again on
  Tuesday.

- There has been a brief lull in thunderstorm activity today with
  chances returning Monday and Tuesday afternoon in the Eastern
  Interior and north towards the Eastern Brooks Range.

- Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range Passes and Delta
  Junction continued today with gusts upwards of around 55 to 70
  mph. Winds will gradually diminish this evening into Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Widespread continuous showers are expected through early next
  week with the highest rainfall totals in the YK Delta, southern
  Seward Peninsula, & Kobuk Valleys. Rainfall totals between 0.25
  to 0.50 inches, with locally higher amounts near 0.75" possible
  through Tuesday.

- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over
  the extreme northern Seward Peninsula & western Brooks Range,
  shifting southward to encompass the entire Seward Peninsula by
  Monday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances diminish from Tuesday,
  onward.

- Another low making its way into the Bering Sea for the latter
  half of next week may support additional widespread showers &
  breezy winds across Western Alaska. Minor coastal impacts are
  possible, primarily high surf. (See the coastal section for
  additional information)

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in store for
  the Western Brooks Range & Western Arctic Plains for this
  afternoon. Shower & thunderstorm coverage shifts southeastward
  for Monday through Tuesday.

- Temperatures warm through early next week with 70s to near 80F
  possible in the Arctic Plains. Cooler temperatures in the
  50s/60s are expected along coastal areas through midweek.

- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog may continue to develop
  during the evenings & overnights along the Arctic Coast into
  next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The ongoing forecast remains on track with troughing out west and
ridging building in the east. Wedged in between is southerly
chinook flow over the AK Range and Brooks Range. Western Alaska
will remain cool and wet for the foreseeable future as several
shortwave troughs and weak low pressure systems move through from
south to north. Wind through the AK Range Passes and in Delta
Junction have been around 50 to 60 mph and will peak tonight.
North of both ranges we are expecting significantly warmer
temperatures in the 70s and 80s with the warmest spots being in
the Yukon Flats where high temperatures approach 90 degrees on
Monday. In addition to warming temperatures, we will see an
increase in thunderstorm activity on Monday and Tuesday in the
Interior and Brooks Range as a front lifts northward. This front
will cool things down significantly from Tuesday onward, bringing
a persistent cool and wet pattern once again. On the North Slope,
it will remain warm through the middle of the week but the broad
scale troughing will win out by the end of the week, cooling
things down significantly and bringing more active weather.

Overall, the summer-like weather on the North Slope and in the
Central/Eastern Interior will be short-lived as cooler and wetter
weather prevails towards the middle and end of the week. The West
Coast will continue to see areas of rain/showers with cool
temperatures. One thing we will be monitoring, which will be
elaborated on in the Extended Discussion and Coastal Hazard
section below, is the potential Bering Sea low by the end of the
week. Significant impacts are not expected but minor coastal
impacts/high surf and heavy rain/gusty winds appear to be on the
agenda right now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With broad troughing to the west and ridging to the east, strong
southerly flow continues to work over the Alaska Range. Warmer and
dry conditions are expected for areas just north of the Alaska Range
with strong gusty winds up to 65 mph expected through the passes and
up to 55 mph in Delta Junction. Peak observed gusts so far today
have been up to 62 mph in the passes and 53 mph at Delta. Wind
Advisories remain in effect for this region tonight into Monday.
Another round of southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes is
expected late Tuesday into Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Temperatures have already begun warming across the Interior north to
the Arctic Coast, which are expected to peak on Monday as highs
climb well into the 70s/80s. Heat Advisories remain in effect for
Monday for the Yukon Flats and Fortymile Country for highs around 85-
90F and the Arctic Plains for highs up to around 80F. Minimum RHs
through Monday will drop to around 25-35% across much of the
Interior north to the Brooks Range and Central Arctic Plains, with
improvement expected Tuesday onwards. There is a limited overlap of
critical wind and low RH expected, with elevated conditions possible
where the warmest and dries conditions overlap with breezy winds.

Dry conditions across the Interior today through Monday morning with
will give way to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
lifting north along a NW to SE oriented front that will build in
Monday afternoon and shift north on Tuesday. The best thunderstorm
chances Monday afternoon and evening will be from the Upper Tanana
Valley northwest to the Central Brooks Range, with isolated activity
continuing Monday night for the Yukon Flats and Brooks Range.
Tuesday is shaping up to see the highest thunderstorm coverage
across the Yukon Flats north through the Brooks Range, peaking
during the afternoon and evening.

Across Western Alaska, isolated to scattered showers and very
isolated thunderstorms will continue through Monday, with heavy
precipitation expected in the Western Alaska Range. A closed low
moving into Southwest Alaska on Tuesday will bring steadier rain for
the Y-K Delta and Southwest Interior north to the Seward Peninsula.

Looking ahead, a coastal storm is expected to move into Western
Alaska Wednesday into Thursday, with widespread precipitation and
gusty winds moving across all of Northern Alaska mid to late week.
Colder temperatures will accompany this system as widespread highs
in the 50s/60s return, with locally colder conditions farther north.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
Wednesday afternoon an approximately 540 decameter closed off low
will move towards St. Lawrence Island. Accompanying this low will be
gusty winds, heavy rain, and minor coastal concerns. The 12z model
guidance is in good agreement that the surface low should be around
990 mbs. This would allow for wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph being
possible across the West Coast and Western Interior. Attached to the
low pressure system, a stout atmospheric river will also be pushed
into the West Coast. This additional moisture could produce
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the West Coast. As the
low moves east on Thursday, this rain will move east and north
towards the Brooks Range and Eastern Interior.

Looking towards the weekend there is large model uncertainty
regarding the pattern. A ridge axis extending north into the
Interior from the North Pacific High is the source of this
uncertainty. Depending on the strength of the ridge axis would
dictate how far into the Interior an arctic trough is able to dig
southwards. This arctic trough will move onto the North Slope
Saturday morning, bringing very cold 850mb temperatures. These
temperatures are introducing the possibility of light to moderate
snowfall in the Brooks Range on Saturday and Sunday. If the ridge
axis is on the weaker side than snow chances could be possible in
the higher terrain of the Interior. On the flip side of that if the
ridge holds than it would just be more rain.

&&

.Coastal Hazard Potential...
We have issued a Special Weather Statement for potential coastal
impacts later this week from a Bering Sea storm. The main things
we are monitoring are the track and strength of the storm but
there is uncertainty with both of these. The good news is, the
storm doesnt look to intensify too much and impacts should be
minor. The West Coast from the Yukon Delta to Kivalina should
monitor the latest forecasts at weather.gov/afg to stay aware of
potential impacts from this storm.

Current coastal flood guidance is hinting at high surf and
potentially minor flooding. Fortunately, significant impacts are
not expected. We will continue to update as necessary.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847-849.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ833-835.
     Heat Advisory for AKZ806-808.
PK...None.
&&

$$

Synopsis...Chambers
Key Messages...Chambers
Forecast Analysis and Discussion...Bianco
Fire Weather Discussion...MacKay
Extended Forecast Discussion...Dennis
Coastal Hazard Potential... Bianco