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FNAK79 PAFG 202318
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Mukluk...State of Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
318 PM AKDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 AKDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will generally continue to be on an
improving trend through the next few days as cloud cover helps to
moderate temperatures and min RHs. Wind gusts of up to 15 mph will
subside through the evening and overnight period. Very isolated rain
showers could produce wetting rains, although these are expected to
be few and far between. If these very isolated showers develop over
terrain north of the fire, they could produce lightning and gusty
outflow winds.

The best chance for and greatest extent of isolated thunderstorms in
the region will be Friday afternoon, where storms could develop both
in the valley and in the terrain north of the fire. Chances for more
widespread wetting rains look to stay northwest and southeast of Tok
Friday and Saturday. Even though wetting rains are unlikely,
increased cloud cover should continue to help moderate temperatures
and RHs through the weekend. High temperatures in particular trend
down into the low to mid 60s through the weekend while Min RHs will
trend up towards 40-50 percent by Sunday.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the evening, then isolated rain
                    showers overnight.
CWR.................8 percent.
CWR25...............0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None (0 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Ridgetop wind.......West winds at 5-15 mph becoming southwest
                    and increasing to 20 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 mph.
Inversion setup.....2200 AKDT, but will be weak due to cloud cover.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
CWR25...............0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Iso (20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds at 15-20 mph decreasing
                    to 5-10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 4800 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 7 mph.
Inversion burnoff...0700 AKDT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms and rain showers.
CWR.................10 percent.
CWR25...............0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Iso (20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........98 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 10-15 mph.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph.
Inversion setup.....2200 AKDT, but will be weak due to cloud cover.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the lower 60s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in
the upper 60s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in
the lower 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...SPANN
Requested by...Patrick Johnson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620028.1/AFG
.DELDT 08/20/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL patrick.c.johnson@usda.gov, michael.ottenweller@noaa.gov