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FNAK79 PAFG 160751 AAA
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Birch Lake Fire...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1151 PM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 AKDT on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...*Mixed up inversion burnoff/setup times*
A dry day with temperatures around 70 and min RHs in the 35 to
40% range on Wednesday. Ridgetop winds will be increasing up to 15
mph from the west Wednesday night. West-northwest winds continue
through Thursday morning before weakening in the afternoon. There
is a slight chance for a shower on Thursday, though there is a
minimal chance for wetting rain as the showers will be few and far
between.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph in the morning
                    becoming light.
Ridgetop wind.......Southeast winds 5 mph, shift northeast
                    become light and variable in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 7 mph.
Inversion burnoff...6 AM AKDT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph
                    overnight.
Ridgetop wind.......Light winds become west after midnight at
                    8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 mph.
Inversion setup.....10 PM AKDT.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......West-northwest winds 10 to 15 mph in the
                    morning becoming light in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 12 mph.
Inversion burnoff...6 AM AKDT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Light winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Light winds.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 50. Highs in
the lower 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BIANCO
Requested by...Bryan Quimby
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517024.12/AFG
.DELDT 07/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brittany.stillie@alaska.gov,bryan_quimby@fws.gov,colten.hines98@gmail.com