202
FNAK79 PAFG 150813
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Birch Lake Fire...State of Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1213 AM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 AKDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
West-southwest ridgetop winds will be gusty through Tuesday
morning then weaken in the afternoon. Showers move towards the
fire during the afternoon/evening. There is a chance that most of
the rain is north of the fire, so the chances for wetting rain is
low. High pressure builds in after these showers pass, making for
a drier Wednesday and Thursday overall. High temperatures are
coolest on Tuesday, upwards of 65, then they warm up Wednesday and
Thursday into the lower 70s with min RHs around 35 to 40%.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Isolated rain showers
                    in the morning, then scattered rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................2 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning,
                    weakening and turning west 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL increasing to 3100 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph.
Inversion burnoff...9 AM AKDT.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    through the night.
CWR.................18 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Ridgetop wind.......West 5 mph in the evening become light and
                    variable overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph.
Inversion setup.....12 AM AKDT.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Ridgetop wind.......Light winds become east at 5 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL increasing to 4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 7 mph.
Inversion burnoff...9 AM AKDT.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
around 70. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
in the lower 70s. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
in the upper 60s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BIANCO
Requested by...Bryan Quimby
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517024.11/AFG
.DELDT 07/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL colten.hines98@gmail.com,bryan_quimby@fws.gov,brittany.stillie@alaska.gov