634
FNAK79 PAFG 172243
FWSAFG

Spot Forecast for Mukluk...Division of Forestry
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 AKDT on August 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A tightened south to north pressure gradient between
high pressure to the south and a weakening trough of low pressure
to the north is causing southwesterly downslope winds off the
Alaska Range of around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. These
downsloping winds have caused things to further warm & dry,
today. Relative Humidity values of between 20 & 30 % &
temperatures as high as the middle 70s have been reached, which
has been further drying out the already very dry surface fuels.
Winds are expected to subside to around 10 mph with gusts up to 20
mph tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes as the trough of low
pressure moves northward & weakens. Relative humidity values
increase starting later this evening as the atmosphere cools to
closer to the dewpoint & the atmosphere moistens. Therefore, the
Red Flag Warning will expire at 7pm this evening. The Minimum
Relative Humidity values are expected to increase to around to the
30s % for Tuesday & Wednesday & into the 40s % for Thursday &
Friday. High temperatures are projected to cool a bit to the upper
60s to around 70 for Tuesday through the end of the work-week.
Also, winds will steadily continue to decrease to light & variable
for the latter half of the week as the southerly pressure
gradient continues to relax as both the ridging to the south and
the troughing to the north weaken. Scattered showers through
tonight & isolated thunderstorms through this evening are
anticipated with only a 10% chance of wetting rain. For Tuesday,
there will be only isolated showers in the morning & a 5% chance
of wetting rain.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................10 percent.
CWR25...............0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Iso (20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 25-30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......SW up to around 30 to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL decreasing to 2800 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 24 mph.
Inversion burnoff...10am

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................10 percent.
CWR25...............0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......Iso (20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
                    in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......SW up to around 20 to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Inversion setup.....11pm

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning.
CWR.................5 percent.
CWR25...............0 percent.
Tstm Coverage.......None (0 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......SW around 15 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL increasing to 5100 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 16 mph.
Inversion burnoff...10am

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 70. Light
winds.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the lower 70s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers. Lows around 40. Highs in
the upper 60s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...CHAMBERS
Requested by...Teresa Rose
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619880.0/AFG
.DELDT 08/17/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL teresa.rose@alaska.gov