465
FXAK67 PAJK 142330
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through Monday night up
  to 10 kts expected except locally gusty near eastern Icy Strait.

- Pattern change on the horizon as a weather system approaches
  late Tuesday, bringing a return of rain and elevated winds
  across the panhandle by mid week.

&&

SHORT TERM...

Surface high pressure continues to exist in the northern gulf
today and tonight, resulting in relatively benign conditions. The
most impactful portion of the forecast is the incoming clouds from
both a lower level marine layer and a mid to upper level
disturbance moving eastward along the ridge aloft, generating some
clouds. Apologies in advance to all Aurora hunters out there
looking for clear skies.

Going into Tuesday, we have the beginnings of a stream of
moisture coming up from far south in the Pacific. This plume
looks to wrap around the ridge tomorrow evening, pushing the high
pressure southeastward, and bringing rain back to the panhandle.
Not expecting much impact from this round of rain, as the
anticyclonic flow the moisture is following does not lend itself
to strong lift dynamics, but could see some moderate rain for the
Yakutat area mainly in part to orographic lift. Could see some
river rises, particularly on west facing slopes (Montana Creek,
Jordan Creek, Indian River in Sitka); however, the shortwave
moving eastward looks somewhat progressive, shifting moisture to
the south by Wednesday morning and diminishing. Therefore, no
flood is expected at this time around, but rivers are expected to
rise.

Going into the late week, a round of heavier rain looks
increasingly likely. More in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/ Upper level features show
a rather active pattern through the long range period. We start
out with overall zonal W to E flow over much of the region that
will gradually transition to a broad upper trough stretching from
the Russian Far East to NW Canada by the weekend. The transition
is set in motion by an upper low moving out of Russia late week
that eventually anchors itself over SW mainland Alaska. The broad
trough stays in place into early next week, but several short
waves are evident rotating around the southern edge of it.

At the surface, this translates into a rather active pattern for
SE AK. First, we are still expecting a front to arrive Wednesday
for the northern half of the panhandle bringing a batch of rain
and wind with it. The wind forecast has not really changed with
the highest winds still expected in the northern inner channels
around Wednesday morning (20 to 30 kt southerly winds, highest in
northern Lynn). The rain forecast however does have a few changes.
The surface ridge that is still over the eastern gulf at this time
is expected to cause the front to rapidly weaken as it moves east.
So while Yakutat is still likely to see moderate to heavy rain
rates for a time (rain totals around 1.5 inches), areas farther
east are expected to receive not as much (around an inch at most
for the northern panhandle through late Wed night). After this
front, Thursday may offer some break in the rainfall, but with
continued onshore flow clouds and showers will still be around for
most areas. Into late week and the weekend, the forecast has
become more active, now featuring a front coming into the
panhandle on Friday and Friday night with a following front coming
in late Saturday. Needless to say that the general trend is toward
a more active and wetter weather pattern into next weekend. With
all the clouds and rainfall around, temperatures will also show a
trend toward cooling more toward normal temperatures for this time
of year across the entire panhandle. In this case it means high
temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60 for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions across the panhandle this afternoon have
remained mostly VFR with the exception of MVFR ceilings for Sitka.
Conditions should remain VFR for most of the panhandle this evening
before the marine layer moves in to parts of the panhandle. With the
marine layer moving into outer coast, conditions should deteriorate
during the evening and overnight hours tonight with ceilings
dropping down to MVFR and IFR. Some visibility reductions are also
possible with some mist and potentially fog developing for places
like Yakutat. Confidence in conditions decreasing is moderate with
the potential for fog being hindered if upper level clouds move in.
Conditions are expected to improve tomorrow afternoon before we see
our next system move into the area later tomorrow night into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: High pressure gradually weakens through this week as
several surface features make their way east across the northern
Gulf. Winds predominantly NW`rly at 10 to 20 kt in the eastern
Gulf Monday afternoon, trending toward a more W`rly component in
the central and northern Gulf through tonight. Winds start picking
up Tuesday morning and shifting to a more southerly direction
with the upcoming system. Generally expecting an increase to 25 to
30 kt winds, gusts to 40 kt, for the central and northern Gulf
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Also noting a high
likelihood of increased winds near prominent capes. Wave heights
of 3 to 6 ft expected Tuesday morning, building to 8 to 11 ft in
the central and northern Gulf by early Wednesday morning, before
diminishing through midweek, all with a SW-ly swell. Anticipating
less marine layer influence tomorrow morning, however visibilities
could still be impacted along the NE Gulf coastline south toward
Cross Sound.

Inside Channels: The retreating morning marine layer and clearing
skies have generated light sea breezes around 10 to 15 kt over the
northern panhandle this afternoon, specifically within Icy Strait
around the Sisters Island to Rocky Island region. Elsewhere,
seeing light to gentle breezes prevailing through this afternoon
and overnight. Winds are expected to start picking up Tuesday
morning across the panhandle as the pressure gradient tightens
with the incoming system. Predominately southerly winds will
continue to increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday across
the northern and central inner channels. The highest of these
winds will be in Lynn Canal with S winds 25 to 35 kt, gusts to 40
kt, with brief gales in Northern Lynn mainly overnight into
Wednesday morning. As this systems exits the region, winds are
expected to decrease some, but remain elevated ahead of another
Gulf system moving in late week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-643-644-651-652-662>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...BAS

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