830
FXAK67 PAJK 260007
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 PM AKDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain returns to the panhandle Saturday into Sunday with heaviest
  rainfall expected Sunday afternoon. Accumulations of 1-3 inches
  in 24 hours possible.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

- Winds likely to remain gusty through the weekend with incoming
  systems.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
As the sun rose across Southeast this morning, clear skies
dominated. Clear skies resulted in one of the coldest days of the
fall season so far and also allowed dense fog to form over much
of the region. As of 230pm, seeing a beautiful fall day for much
of the Panhandle, with clear conditions persisting into tonight
with the exception of Yakutat and some of the coast off the
Alexander Archipelago. While we enjoy a short break enjoying the
sun, attention turns to a series of systems upstream over the
Western Gulf and Bering, which will drive our weather over the
next several days. Expecting some light rain to continue to spread
along the coast Friday evening, with heavier rain anticipated to
spread over much of the northern coast and Panhandle by Saturday
morning. Saturday into Sunday will be a warmup with lighter rain
overall, expecting a more proper soaking by late Sunday as deeper
moisture is directed towards the western seaboard, with Southeast
catching a glancing blow.

Rainfall amounts vary, but will try to keep it simple. From
Saturday through Tuesday, we will be in a rainfall marathon, not a
sprint. Expect a few rounds of moderate to heavy rain bringing
multiple days of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in 24 hours for our
sea-level communities. Freezing levels look to remain near 4000
to 5000 ft through the weekend, perhaps we see a few snowflakes
mix in with the rain at White Pass.

Winds will increase over much of the area over the weekend and
into the start of next week. See Marine discussion for further
detail.


.LONG TERM...

An active weather pattern
will persist across SEAK through at least early next week as
multiple fronts/lows will push through the Gulf and into the
panhandle. The big player that will send the disturbances into
the Gulf and through SEAK will be the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan
and associated upper-level low/trough that will slowly swing
through southern interior of AK and into the Gulf through early
next week. Additionally, in between each front, cooler, moist
onshore flow will keep mostly cloudy skies and showers. A frontal
band will be sliding east across the panhandle Sunday morning,
with a period of moderate to heavy rain and gusty S-SEly winds. By
Sunday night into Monday, a low/front will will pivot around the
periphery of the parent upper-low and lift northeast into the Gulf
and strengthen as it approaches the panhandle, with another surge
of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds. This system is
stronger and will tap into a deeper feed of Pacific moisture, with
moderate to heavy rain expected. Some guidance is quite
aggressive in deepening the low and bringing gales into the Gulf
and into Clarence Strait. In addition, cooler temperatures aloft
associated with the upper trough will result in modest
instability, bringing a potential for isolated thunderstorms,
primarily along the Gulf Coast and southern panhandle. While
precipitation rates could become heavy, individual fronts remain
relatively progressive, keeping the threat of prolonged,
continuous heavy rainfall and localized flooding lower.
Precipitation probability guidance showing a slight potential of
rainfall rates exceeding 6-hour or 24-hour 2-year return intervals
with each system, with northern panhandle favored for heaviest
rain amounts on Sunday (10-15% of exceeding 2 year return
intervals), and southern panhandle favored for Sunday night/Monday
system (10-20%). For Tuesday into Wednesday, rain chances and
precip rates are favored to be on a downward as the primary Gulf
low weakens and the feed of deeper moisture shifts southeast of
the panhandle towards BC. However, quite a bit of model
discrepancy remains for the period as some guidance is suggesting
weak ridging building in by Wednesday. For now, kept mostly cloudy
skies and scattered showers over SEAK with the upper trough and
weaker onshore flow favored to persist. The rainy and cloudy
pattern will keep temperatures seasonably cool with highs
generally in the low to mid 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...

Most of the area has lifted cigs well above 3kft, and some have a
rare clear sky day. VFR/MVFR conditions will continue through the
night and into Saturday, though cigs will fill in Saturday morning
as the next system approaches the panhandle. Additionally, rain will
spread from north to south, starting tonight around PAYA, and then
eventually covering almost the entire region with light to moderate
rain by end of the TAF valid period. The overcast cloud deck ought
to prevent fog formation for most TAF sites, though trouble spots in
the southern panhandle, such as PAPG, may experience some patches of
fog in the early morning Saturday.

Along with the arrival of rain with this front will come some
elevated gusty winds. Gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible throughout
SE AK in the late morning into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Predominantly light winds across the inner
channels, staying 10 kts or less into tonight. Some areas may still
see some 10 to 20 kt sea breezes last into the early evening. Winds
will gradually begin to increase overnight as a front approaches the
panhandle. Starting Saturday morning, winds begin to increase to a
SE-ly moderate to fresh breeze as the front pushes across the area.
Inner channels will increase from SW to NE throughout the day, with
the highest winds expected to push through the more N-S oriented
channels. Fronts are expected to continue to push through Sunday
into early next week, keeping winds around 20 kts up to 25 kts as
each front passes through with not much of a break between winds
between fronts. Seas of 3-5 ft will begin to develop Saturday and
last into Sunday.

Outside Waters: The weak front offshore of the NE coast will keep
20 to 30 kt winds along the N coastline into tonight ahead of the
stronger front moving in. This front, extending from a low in the
Bering Sea, will move W to E tonight into Saturday morning,
bringing SE-ly strong breezes to near gales as it pushes in
towards the panhandle. The northern Gulf coast from Kayak Island
and Cape Suckling over to Icy Bay will see a barrier jet with E-ly
gale force winds and gusts to 45 kts possible just offshore. A
wind shift will follow this front into Saturday to SW-ly flow of
15 to 20 kt ahead of the next front moving in Saturday night.
Largely S to SW-ly winds offshore and into the eastern Gulf, with
more SE to E-ly winds and a stronger barrier jet of 30 kt to 35 kt
will last with this next front as well. Seas building to 9-14 ft
with this front moving in tonight into Saturday, staying above 8
ft ahead of the next front.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...MJB
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...Contino

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau