925
FXAK67 PAJK 291330
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
530 AM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Rain showers likely through the day Tuesday. Drying possible at
  times along the northern gulf coast on Tuesday. Another round of
  showers expected for Wednesday.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early in the week.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wed night/ Weakening low in the NE gulf is
continuing to bring W to SW onshore flow and showers for much of
the area. Some of these showers have been heavy at times. This
overall pattern is not going to change all that much over the next
few days. The main change in pattern is that the low in the NE
gulf will diminish by Tuesday Night only to be replaced by a
developing low near Prince William Sound that will basically
continue the onshore flow and showers over the area. The one
exception will be Wednesday afternoon into Wed night as an upper
level trough moves over the area from W to E. This upper trough
will likely enhance the showers over the area. It will also bring
an increase in inner channel winds with N Lynn now likely seeing
25 kt S winds Wed evening. Many of the other northern inner
channels winds have also been increased and will now likely see S
or E winds of 15 to 20 kt around the same time period.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/...A series of small
disturbances and onshore flow will bring steady rain to the region
through the end of the week. A weak surface high building over
the southeastern Gulf will reinforce onshore flow and could
potentially tighten pressure gradients across the panhandle as the
next system approaches. A low pressure system originating near
Russia will move east, tracking south of the Aleutian Islands and
into the Gulf of Alaska by early weekend. There is a growing
likelihood of tropical moisture entraining into the system,
supported by an 850mb southerly jet, increased precipitable water,
and seasonably warmer temperatures aloft. Though this will likely
not affect the surface much due to consistent widespread cloud
cover and small diurnal trends.

Model spread is still significant, but guidance favors landfall
along the north-central coast late weekend. The system could bring
rounds of moderate to heavy rain across most of the panhandle, with
the highest totals currently expected along the northeast Gulf
coast, though this is dependent on the system`s exact track and
strength. There is also increasing potential for stronger winds and
building seas along the outer coast and northern inner channels
ahead of this low. While some guidance suggests a more aggressive
evolution, the system generally lacks upper level support beyond
a weak, negatively tilted trough and jet setup. We will continue
to monitor developments through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers continue to move across the panhandle, keeping
flying conditions predominantly VFR but with CIG and VIS drops to
MVFR/IFR as showers push through. Expecting the low sitting over
the Gulf to keep gradually drifting eastward, dragging the showers
a bit more southward across the panhandle and diminishing chances
in the NE Gulf coastline area. Expecting from this for PAYA to
stay VFR through much of the TAF period, with lower chances for
shower activity during the day.

The rest of the panhandle will continue to see intermittent CIG
drops from 3500-5000 ft down to 1500-2500 ft throughout the TAF
period, with occasional IFR as CIGs drop to and linger around 600-1000
ft largely for more inland areas (PAKT, PAHN) this morning. Heavier
showers moving through will also bring VIS conditions down to 2-5
SM at times, with the highest chances being for PAPG southward
through the rest of this morning.

Some parts of the panhandle will see a brief break period in
between the showers tonight, largely looking to be between 06-12z
where shower chances diminish. However, lower CIGs look to remain
for many areas even between the waves of showers, with even some
fog development looking possible for PAPG, PAWG, and PAKT after
around 09z.

&&

.MARINE...
Inner Channels...Generally 10 to 15 kt S to E winds are blowing
through the inner channels this morning with seas around 3 ft.
There are some isolated local spots with 20 kt, but they are few
and far between (Point Couverden). Winds are expected to generally
remain steady today before becoming lighter tonight as the NE
gulf low diminishes. Expect winds to intensify and seas to
increase again Wednesday afternoon and evening as an upper trough
moves through the area. N Lynn will likely see winds around 25 kt
Wednesday evening with many of the northern inner channels
reaching 15 to 20 kt around the same time period. Seas will also
increase to 4 to 5 ft as winds increase. Ocean entrances into mid
week exposed to the SW or W will see higher seas up to 7 ft due
to W swell invading from the gulf, but those seas will be
gradually diminishing into Wed as swell subsides. Occasional
reductions in visibility down to 2 miles due to heavier showers at
times.

Gulf Waters...Generally W to SW flow around 15 kt as a low near
58N 141W stalls and diminishes through Tuesday night. This low
will gradually be replaced by a developing low near Prince William
Sound by Wednesday which will not actually change conditions
across the gulf all that much. Winds are expected to change to
more S or SW by mid week but will mostly stay around 10 to 20 kt
for speeds into Thursday. Seas are still a little high across the
gulf with 7 to 10 ft seas common due to a 7 to 8 ft W swell
(period 11 sec). These seas are expected to gradually diminish to
around 6 ft into mid week as the W swell gradually subsides.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>643-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...EAL

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