998
FXAK67 PAJK 150537
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
837 PM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF issuance...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Showers will diminish ahead of the next frontal passage that
  will bring another round of rain and snow and wind later today
  into tomorrow.

- Weak overrunning situation for the northern Lynn Canal area
  especially around Haines area with continues light north outflow
  and not expecting southerly flow to the Haines area until Sat
  morning 8 to noon time frame. Issue will amount of moisture
  transfer for north. Have kept snowfall totals under advisory
  levels though would not be surprised if my 2-3 inch forecast was
  on the low end.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
  Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/...Frontal band arcing
across the gulf from surface low presently south of Kodiak
Island, is lifting into the southwest portion of the panhandle
this afternoon and evening and will continue to the north central
panhandle by Saturday morning and then reaching the northern
panhandle in the morning/midday time frame. North Central may
start as rain or rain snow mix with minor accumulations.

Along highways out of Haines and Skagway expect snow tonight and
Saturday morning before lower elevations mix or change to rain.
Have 2 to 3 inches in the forecast now, however these overrunning
situations can be hard to forecast accurately.

With the frontal passage there will be some wind bumps and
gustiness up to 35 mph possible, however expect most areas to stay
on the lower speeds.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday/...Minimal changes have
been made to the long term, with minor tweaks focusing around
inner channel winds. A front associated with a surface level low
in the western gulf will sweep northeast Friday night, passing
over the panhandle Saturday and bringing around half an inch of
rain in 24 hours. The northern interior panhandle will see this
rain transition to more of a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher
elevated areas seeing fully snow into midday Saturday. 24 hour
snow accumulations for highest elevations are still sitting around
3 inches, with areas closer to sea level seeing around an inch or
less. After the front pushes through going into Saturday
afternoon, developing showers in the wake will keep light rain in
the forecast for the rest of Saturday, trickling out overnight.
Breaks in the clouds will start to appear Sunday morning, with a
majority of the panhandle potentially able to see sun peaking
through throughout Sunday.

The next system over the eastern Aleutians is expected to send a
front into the panhandle through midday Monday, bringing rain
through the rest of the day and Tuesday. Through the entirety of
this system, around an inch of rain is expected, with the outer
coast seeing between an inch and an inch and a half. With colder
temperatures persisting in the northern interior panhandle, many
areas of the northern panhandle will likely see a rain/snow mix
for this time, with the Klondike Highway potentially seeing up to
6 inches of snow with this system.

Winds won`t be much of an issue through the period, with 20 to 30
kts in the gulf decreasing to 5 to 10 kts between systems. Inner
channel winds look to increase to around 20 kts up Lynn Canal and
out of Icy Strait as the pressure gradient tightens early next
week. High temperatures are sitting at the high 30s for the
northern interior panhandle and increasing to the low 40s as you
move south. The southern panhandle will see highs slightly
increase as each front moves through, though will stay in the high
40s. Low temperatures won`t be too much lower than the highs,
though they look to drop to around freezing early next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 6z Sunday/...Varying conditions through the
panhandle with the front moving north overnight. The front is
currently pushing through the southern panhandle and into the
central panhandle, bring rainy MVFR conditions with CIGs AoB 3000
ft and VIS between 4 and 6 SM. Gusty winds up to 20 kts are
funneling up Clarence Strait and through unsheltered communities,
though the rest of the panhandle is seeing generally light and
variable winds when not being impacted by the peak of the front.
Gustavus and Juneau are currently seeing CIGs around 300 ft with
lowered VIS which is expected to linger until the front moves in
around midnight. As the front continues to move north,
temperatures will allow for a rain/snow mix which will drop VIS to
2 to 4 SM and CIGs to around 1500 ft. In Haines and Skagway,
temperatures will be cold enough to see light snow accumulate
overnight, but only around 2 to 3 inches are expected for the
higher elevations. Conditions are expected to drop to IFR through
the early morning before the snow turns fully back to rain.
Lowered MVFR conditions are generally expected to follow this
system through the 24 hour period, though southern areas may see
these CIGs lift back to VFR behind the front early Saturday
morning. Onshore flow in the wake of the front will keep rain in
the forecast through Saturday, with developing showers bringing
CIGs and VIS down as they pass over. Southeasterly LLWS around 30
kts will follow the front through the southern and central
panhandle, but won`t make it all the way up north.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside waters: As the front moves north into the area tonight,
southeasterly winds will swing to the southwest and will be around
20 to to 30 knots. As the low center travels through Saturday,
the winds on the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 20
knots. Some higher wind speeds up to 25 kts are possible.

Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15
knots.

Inner Channels: As the front travels through the area late
tonight into tomorrow, we would expect southerly winds to
increase. But with the source low so far away, winds may only pick
up to around 15 to 20 knots. Stronger winds, up to 20 to 30 kts,
likely for Clarence Strait. Winds up to 25 knots possible for
Stephens Passage.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...Bezenek

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