931
FXAK67 PAJK 030106 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 PM AKST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A low enters the gulf Tuesday increasing bringing gales to the
  southern gulf and increasing winds across the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Forecast is mostly on track through this evening, with
the incoming shortwave nicely visible on satellite near Prince of
Wales Island. One change going forward is the addition of
isolated thunderstorms on the western slope of Prince of Wales
Island. With skinny cape present, westerly winds exceeding 30
knots up to 850 mb, and vorticity advection aloft, the thought was
some enhanced convection from orographic lifting on the western
slope of PoW. Not expecting any strong winds greater than 30 knots
due to lack of moisture limiting evaporative rain cooling aloft.
Otherwise, will see a diminishing trend in showers from north to
south this evening, with showers in the central and southern
panhandle slowing down tremendously as the shortwave passes into
Canada. Similar story with the winds, with wind gusts on the
downward trend beginning around 6 PM tonight with the departing
energy moving into Canada.

Tomorrow will see a weak shortwave moving up from the south,
bringing another round of moist weather and increased winds to 30
mph over land for the southern panhandle. Not expecting rain or
wind to continue significantly into the afternoon hours, as the
weak trough is sheared apart by the mountains in the area. PoPs
significantly fall apart into the evening as the next system moves
up from the south.

.LONG TERM...
A more moist and active pattern arrives Tuesday as
multiple low pressure systems move north into the gulf of Alaska.
These lows will send a series of fronts and shortwaves over the
panhandle allowing precipitation chances to remain high into the end
of the week. 24 hour precipitation amounts remain on the lower side
for this time of year, but the southern panhandle is looking to
receive the most rain as these fronts move north.

Land and marine winds will have the most impact for the panhandle
Tuesday into Wednesday. On Tuesday night, winds across the southern
gulf of Alaska increase to gale force around 35 kts as the low
begins to move north. As the low begins to move into the gulf, and
high pressure around 1015 to 1020 mb builds over BC, the east to
west facing channels will see a more significant increase in winds.
This will also create easterly winds across the Coastal Mountain
Range. Those easterly winds will help to increase wind strengths
near Juneau, Taku Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Although these winds
will not the strongest mountain wave, Juneau has a 40% chance of
seeing gusts up to 40 mph late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Other
inside waters are likely to experience fresh to strong breezes of
northerly 15 to 25 kts as the low moves north.

While the parent low in the gulf is expected to be fully stacked and
well occluded, multiple shortwave troughs aloft continuously move
energy northward for the rest of the week. Which allows for
uncertainty to remain in the forecast, into the end of the week.
However, the week will remain active with the southern panhandle the
most likely to see the most rain and wind into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers continue across the panhandle this afternoon
bringing VFR to MVFR conditions with an occasional IFR shower.
CIGs and VIS continue to fluctuate with some showers dropping VIS
down to 4-5 SM while CIGs remain AoB 3000 ft during the showers
before popping up to AoA 3500 outside of these showers. Besides
the worse CIGs and VIS, the showers have been bringing gusty winds
as well as they pass over. Most places have seen gusts up to
20-25 kt today. The exception is the northern Lynn Canal area
which has been seeing gusts in the 30-40 kt range and should
continue through this evening before decreasing. Headed into the
latter half of the TAF period, the showers are expected to
continue bringing diminished flying weather. With the convective
showers, AAWU flight graphics continue to highlight the potential
for some turbulence and icing.


&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Light to moderate pockets of showers continue to
develop through the gulf with fresh southwesterly flow diminishing
through Sunday night. Winds will begin turning southerly
overnight, becoming southeasterly Monday morning and eventually
turning easterly by Monday night. As this flow starts to turn, an
area of shortwave troughing will attempt to spin up along the
southeastern coast of the panhandle which will keep winds going
into Clarence Strait and off the coast of PoW Island between 11 to
16 kts overnight. Another low pressure system jumps into the
southern gulf Monday, sending a shortwave of elevated winds into
the southern gulf overnight. East to southeasterly strong breezes
to near gales (22 to 33 kts) will spread north through the gulf
Tuesday and stay elevated as the fully developed gale force front
moves in Tuesday evening. Wave heights in the gulf will rapidly
fall from 12 to 14 ft to around 5 to 7 ft by Monday before the
next system southeasterly 15 to 20 ft waves in the southern gulf,
continuing to increase through Tuesday. 8 to 10 ft southwesterly
swell with a wave period around 11 seconds will follow suit, with
the system bringing in 15 to 20 ft southeasterly swell with a
period around 14 seconds.

Inner Channels: Elevated fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts)
in the inner channels are beginning to weaken through Sunday
afternoon as the pressure gradient turns more easterly. Northern
Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage are still seeing areas of near
gale force winds (28 to 33 kts) with gale force gusts (34 to 40
kts) going into Sunday evening. By Monday morning, channel winds
will have largely diminished to below 10 kts with the exception of
a small shortwave attempting to bring moderate breezes (11 to 16
kts) up Clarence Strait. Winds will start picking up again
overnight Monday into Tuesday as the next system moves into the
southern gulf. Outflow winds will pick up Tuesday and continue
into Wednesday, with multiple channels seeing near gale force
winds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...ZTK

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau