437
FXAK67 PAJK 151619 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
611 AM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure in the southern Gulf of Alaska will continue to
  slide southeast through tonight.

- The associated front is tracking north through the panhandle
  this morning, bringing rain and snow to the SE AK.

- Behind the front, lingering showers will dot the landscape
  through the morning with decreasing showers later today into
  tonight.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
  Alaska.


&&

.SHORT TERM...From the overnight, rain and snow has been reported
around the area due to a passing front. This front will continue
to track northward today. Behind the front is showers. These
showers will last through the day today with a diminishing trend
tonight into tomorrow.

This morning, we are seeing rain showers for areas south of Icy
Strait and a rain/snow mix or snow for those along and north of
Icy Strait. As the day goes on, any snow should end up being
contained to just the northern Lynn Canal area.

Along highways out of Haines and Skagway, expecting snow to linger
through Saturday morning with lower elevations mixing with rain.
Have 1 to 3 inches in the forecast now, however these overrunning
situations can be a challenge if the cold air remains in place
with continued moisture streaming into the area. But with the
diminishing trend in the showers, moisture will be a limiting
factor.


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Minimal changes
to the Sunday forecast as the low moves southeast and ridging begins
to develop over the Gulf and panhandle. This will still bring a
period of lower PoPs, with some clearing in the cloud cover. The
drier weather expected to last longer for the central and southern
panhandle into early Monday morning, while some showers linger over
the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle, before the next front
begins to move in from the west Monday morning. The winds during
this period will remain lighter across the panhandle, and stay more
northerly bringing some cooler temperatures particularly for Sunday
night, dropping minimum temperatures down to around freezing for
much of the northern panhandle and areas further from the coast.

The forecast remains largely the same for the front moving through
Monday into Tuesday, with the biggest change in the forecast being
in the precipitation types and amount of snow on the highways. Model
guidance has been trending more warm at the surface, with 850 mb
temperatures staying around -4 to -5C and surface max temperatures
nudging up to the high 30s to low 40s over the central and northern
panhandle as onshore flow returns to the panhandle Monday with this
next system. Snow levels are also increasing this week, from 500 to
600 ft Monday morning further north and far from the outer
coastline, to over 1000 ft by Tuesday morning across even the
northern panhandle. This warmer air brought in by this system and
higher snow levels and wet bulb temperatures correspond to more rain
being expected as the precipitation type Tuesday and Wednesday with
the exception of the highways. Monday morning there will be possible
mixing Icy Strait corridor northward due to the lower temperatures
from overnight as the moisture moves in, but transitioning to rain
during the morning to midday.

The greatest amount of QPF is expected along the NE Gulf coast for
this system, with around 1 inch in 24 hours Monday and expecting
another 0.5 to 1 inch Tuesday and Wednesday as precipitation
continues to move into the panhandle. The rest of the panhandle
should see amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per 24 hours as rain
lingers even after the front moves through, and as another wave
moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall this system will
bring between 1.5 and 3 inches of snow to the Haines Highway and
between 3 and 5 inches of snow to the Klondike Highway in 48 hours.
The winds for this system remain largely the same in the forecast,
aside from some increases to 15 to 20 kts Wednesday across the inner
channels as the second wave moves through. Otherwise, no other wind
impacts across the inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Sunday/...CIG & VIS conditions are generally
expected to improve from the MVFR category up to or just shy of
the VFR flight category through the TAF period. Some central &
southern panhandle areas may be a bit breezy for a few hours this
morning, but SFC winds should lighten up from the afternoon
through the end of the period. Significant LLWS values are not
anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...Main marine concerns in the short term forecast are
centered around the low pressure that is moving through the Gulf.
As of this morning, the low pressure center is approaching the
central Gulf and is tracking southeast. The associated front has
been swinging south-to-north overnight, bringing rain and snow to
the panhandle. By this afternoon, the low will reach the eastern
Gulf and will continue to move southeast Saturday evening.

Outside waters: As the low center travels through the area today,
the winds on the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 25
knots.

Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15
knots.

Inner Channels: Southerly winds around 5 to 15 knots are likely
with pockets of higher wind speeds. For now, expecting those
stronger winds to be near Icy Strait, Near Point Couverden, and
southern Stephens Passage. But as the front pushes northward
tonight, wind speeds in the inner channels should lighten up to
around 5 to 10 knots by late tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GJS

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