119
FXAK67 PAJK 031528
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
628 AM AKST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Weak shortwave brings light showers across southern and central
  panhandle this morning into the evening, shearing apart by
  tonight.

- Offshore flow for northern panhandle for this evening, with low
  precipitation chances and some sky clearing.

- A low enters the gulf Tuesday increasing bringing gales to the
  southern gulf and increasing winds across the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A weak shortwave continues to move up into the southern panhandle
early this morning, bringing some light showers across the
southern panhandle before getting sheared apart by the time the
trough moves more northward. These showers will move as far north
as the central panhandle by this evening, before PoPs rapidly
diminish to only some slight chances by tonight reaching as far
north as Juneau. The northern panhandle will begin to see some
northerly offshore flow by this afternoon as the next low
approaches from the southwest, allowing for some breaks in cloud
cover from Icy Strait corridor northward during the day. The
highest precipitation chances for tonight will be along the NE
Gulf coast as flow moves along the shore, and into the southern
panhandle later tonight as the next system approaches.
Precipitation from this upcoming front will begin to push across
the southern panhandle by early Tuesday morning, moving northward
into the late morning.

Winds will remain calmer today across the majority of the
panhandle, with the exception being the southern panhandle, where
the shortwave moving through this morning will bring up winds both
over the waters and inland. Winds should diminish after the wave
passes through, with lighter winds lasting into tonight for most
inland parts of the panhandle.

.LONG TERM...
A more moist and active pattern arrives Tuesday as multiple low
pressure systems move north into the gulf of Alaska. These lows
will send a series of fronts and shortwaves over the panhandle
allowing precipitation chances to remain high into the end of the
week. 24 hour precipitation amounts remain on the lower side for
this time of year, but the southern panhandle is looking to
receive the most rain as these fronts move north.

Land and marine winds will have the most impact for the panhandle
Tuesday into Wednesday. On Tuesday night, winds across the
southern gulf of Alaska increase to gale force around 35 kts as
the low begins to move north. As the low begins to move into the
gulf, and high pressure around 1015 to 1020 mb builds over BC, the
east to west facing channels will see a more significant increase
in winds. This will also create easterly winds across the Coastal
Mountain Range. Those easterly winds will help to increase wind
strengths near Juneau, Taku Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Although
these winds will not the strongest mountain wave, Juneau has a 40%
chance of seeing gusts up to 40 mph late Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Other inside waters are likely to experience fresh to
strong breezes of northerly 15 to 25 kts as the low moves north.

While the parent low in the gulf is expected to be fully stacked
and well occluded, multiple shortwave troughs aloft continuously
move energy northward for the rest of the week. Which allows for
uncertainty to remain in the forecast, into the end of the week.
However, the week will remain active with the southern panhandle
the most likely to see the most rain and wind into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Tuesday Morning/
General VFR conditions across the panhandle this morning, even
with a nuisance shortwave pushing into the S Panhandle. CIGS
hovering AoA 3500ft, with some brief intermittent dips down to
MVFR flight conditions near 1500ft. Aforementioned shortwave will
keep isolated showers across the panhandle TAF sites through
Monday afternoon, primarily along and south of a line from Sitka
over to Petersburg, dropping visbys down to 2 to 4SM with the
heavier showers. CIGS south of this line will generally by AoB
5000ft through the morning, with potential to SCT out for a few
hours from 18z to 00z. On the opposite trend, anticipating drier
outflow conditions along and north of the Icy Strait corridor,
including Juneau, with higher forecast confidence of VFR flight
conditions with CIGS AoA 5000ft by 18z to 20z through Monday
evening. Light intermittent rainfall returns to the N TAF sites
near tail end of TAF period as a weak front sweeps from SE to NW
across the panhandle.

Winds should largely remain 10kts or less, diminishing through
the late afternoon into Monday night. However, can`t rule out an
isolated gust up to 20kts at Skagway through the morning. No major
LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Winds predominantly less than 15 kt across the
Gulf throughout the day and lasting into early tonight, with only
some increases to between 15-20 kt as a surface trough moves
northward along the SE Gulf coast this morning. The NE Gulf coast
within 15 NM will see an increase to 15 kt near Cape Fairweather
and Cape St. Elias as a weak coastal jet late this morning, and
increasing to 20 kt by tonight as the low approaches. The
southeastern Gulf will switch to an Easterly direction by tonight
as the low approaches, winds nearshore and offshore increasing to
15-25 kt late tonight into early Tuesday morning as the low moves
northward toward the panhandle. 7 to 10 ft seas this morning
diminishing to 5 to 7 ft tonight, before SE Gulf seas become 7 to
10 ft into Tuesday morning as the low moves in. Westerly swell of
4 to 7 ft diminishing into tonight and becoming southerly into
Tuesday morning.

Inner Channels: Winds largely remaining below 10 kt across the
inner channels today. Northern Lynn Canal will still see southerly
15 to 20 kt winds through this morning, before diminishing and
switching to a northerly direction by the afternoon. Clarence
Strait and Southern Chatham Strait near Cape Decision will
continue to see southeasterly 15-20 kt winds following the
shortwave moving through this morning, before diminishing to 10-15
kt by this afternoon. Winds across the inner channels will switch
from a more southeasterly direction this morning to an easterly
to northeasterly direction by early Tuesday morning as the low
approaches the panhandle from the southwest. Winds in Cross sound
and southern Clarence Strait will begin to see increases to 20 kt
from an easterly direction early in the morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino

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