871
FXAK67 PAJK 240639
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
939 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06Z aviation discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Active pattern continues through Monday with rain/snow mix for
most areas.

 - Winter weather advisory out for Haines for 4 to 6 inches of snow
on Monday.

 - Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next week
bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of the
panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Current cool, settled weather conditions across
Southeast Alaska tonight will give way to a more dynamic pattern
as an approaching frontal system pushes moisture into the
panhandle. Current along the coastline, light precipitation and
drizzle have been reported with temperatures in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. In contrast for northern areas, cold air remains in
place, supporting flurries and light snow. Current guidance has
precipitation moving in slightly faster, with the Juneau area
seeing a mix of rain and snow showers late this evening. Looking
to see primarily rain in the Juneau, Gustavus, and Hoonah area by
Monday morning as the shallow, stable cold pool is eroded away by
the incoming frontal system.

Up north near Haines and Skagway is the main impactful elements of
this upcoming system for very early tomorrow morning through the
day. The aforementioned cold pool in the northern panhandle looks
substantially more impressive both in height and stability,
steadily reinforced by northerly winds. A frontogenesis band is
expected to develop almost directly on the Haines area, generating
substantial lift, particularly in the dendritic growth zone.
The only problem with this setup is the uncertainty in moisture
within the atmosphere between 850-500 mb. If the atmosphere is
sufficiently saturated, Haines could very easily see warning level
snow, but the likelihood of occurrence is only around 50%.
Sticking with an advisory for 4-6 inches, and will look towards
latest guidance to see if an upgrade is necessary.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, conditions continue to
remain unsettled. Ensemble guidance is still having a hard time
nailing down specific details as well as deterministic for the
start of the long term. Right now, forecast guidance looks to be
split into two camps with the deterministic and ensemble guidance
for the Euro and Canadian coming together for a more consistent
solution. The other camp is the GFS and GEFS. The Euro/Canadian
solution looks to bring a low farther north and closer to the
panhandle which would increase the chances of seeing rain and snow
showers. The GFS solution looks to keep the low farther to the
south and would favor more of a dry outflow situation. Headed into
Wednesday, it looks like we dry out as high pressure in Canada
becomes the dominant pattern for SE AK. There are still some
disagreements between models on this solution so details could
change regarding exactly what locations dry out. By the time we
get to Thursday, models look to come into more agreement that
outflow will be the dominant weather for the panhandle as high
pressure over the Yukon and British Columbia firmly establishes
control. This will allow for temperatures to cool in locations
that are not usually windy during outflow events while places like
Cross Sound, Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and the Stikine River Delta
look to see winds increase. Our attention then turns to a low
pressure over the Alaska Peninsula for our next potential weather
maker. This system is expected to stay west of the area but could
tap into moisture from the south bringing in a significant amount
of moisture to the area. Depending on the location that this low
sets up around, conditions across the panhandle could range from
remaining dry due to high pressure, potentially a significant
rain/snow event, or just a significant rain event if the system is
far enough to the east to mix out the cold air near the surface
and bring mostly just rain. With the disagreement and uncertainty
in the models, this will need to be monitored throughout the week
for updates and changes.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Tuesday/...An atmospheric wave rotating
around an area of low pressure in the gulf continues to move
northward through the panhandle, bringing lowered CIGs, primarily
RA for the southern panhandle, & a RA/SN mix & SN for northern
areas, which will lower VISs. Expect CIGs & VISs to mainly dip
down to as low as the low-end MVFR category through the TAF
period for most areas, potentially temporarily dipping into the
IFR category when heavier precipitation moves through. Sustained
SFC winds should not exceed 12 kt at their strongest, & LLWS
values remain rather benign.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Inside waters winds are rather light this
afternoon with most areas reporting 15 kt or less of wind. the
exceptions are near Young Bay and Cross Sound which are both
showing E winds to 20 kt. Wind directions are mainly out of the SE
and E. The exception to that is North/south channels north of Icy
Strait which are flowing out of north today. Slight increase in
winds expected for tonight as a weak short wave moves north
increasing winds in the northern half of the inner channels to 15
to 20 kt, but they are expected to diminish into Monday with the
northern inner channels switching to a southerly wind direction
mid day Monday. Winds are then expected to stay light into Monday
night before a general switch to a more northerly direction is
forecast for Tuesday as a storm system moves south of the area.
Seas are primarily wind wave up to 3 to 4 ft and will generally
stay that height or less through Tuesday. Higher seas near Ocean
Entrances tonight into early Monday as SW swell up to 6 ft in the
gulf gradually diminishes into Monday night.

Outside Waters:
Lingering low pressure in the central gulf is producing some 20 kt
winds E winds for the northern gulf and 20 kt W winds for the
southern gulf today. These winds are expected to gradually
diminish and become mostly Southerly by Monday afternoon as the
gulf low diminishes away. As a new low moves by to the south of
the area on Monday night into Tuesday, gulf winds will continue to
shift to SE and then E by Tuesday and will start increasing to
near 25 kt in the eastern gulf by Tuesday. Seas mainly dominated
by SW swell of around 6 to 7 ft (with a period of 12 to 14 sec) at
the moment with wind wave on top of that giving combined seas of 9
to 12 ft. Seas are expected to gradually diminish down to 6 to 7
ft through Monday night as the SW swell subsides. However, Seas
will start building again late Monday night into Tuesday as the
increasing SE winds begin to build waves from a southerly
direction, especially Tuesday where seas could reach 10 to 12 ft
across a large area of the gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-661-662-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL

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