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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
944 PM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...06Z Aviation Discussion and Evening Update...

No major changes to ongoing forecast. Overland and inner channel
winds remain largely 10kts or less, outside of Clarence Strait
which is currently seeing southeasterly 20kt winds near Ship
Island. Strongest Gulf winds remain along the N Gulf Coast and
down coastal Baranof Island with Buoy 46083 outside of Cross Sound
and Buoy 46084 west of Baranof showing NW-ly winds around 20 kts.
Through the rest of tonight, anticipating trends to remain
generally the same with resurgence of marine layer and fog
potential into Cross Sound, down the western fringes of Chichagof
and Baranof Islands, and northward into Clarence Strait through
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ through Wednesday night /
Similar to yesterday, the above normal temps and clear skies
continue for SE AK.

Key Messages:
- Clear skies with near 0% chance for precip.
- Above normal afternoon highs in the 70s to around 80 likely
  for most of the area.
- With the exception of sea breezes, wind speeds will remain light.
- Some concern for spotty areas of marine layer development.

The blocking high pressure ridge persists pattern continues. and
this will keep main flow pattern away, but allow marine stratus
decks to move in and out of the areas like Cross Sound and
Chichagof Island. Patchy fog overnight under the marine deck with
visibility`s dropping to a mile or less. May need to watch for
potential dense fog issues, I think mainly in the Cross Sound
area.

.LONG TERM...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures remain above normal through midweek
- Slight cooling over the weekend with increasing clouds and rain
  chances, particularly for northern gulf coast

A blocking ridge and accompanying surface high pressure in the
central gulf will weaken slightly later this week, but still
dominate the overall pattern for southeast Alaska. Warm and dry
summer weather will continue, with the southern panhandle still on
the receiving end of the warmest temperatures, reaching the upper
70s with isolated areas further inland reaching 80 Thursday. Lack
of cloud cover combined with daytime heating will continue to
lead to brisk sea breezes for communities along the inner
channels, with the strongest winds expected in northern Lynn Canal
and Taiya Inlet with thermal troughing developing over the
interior. Expect these to pick up in the afternoon hours to
moderate to fresh breeze consistently through midweek but to a
lesser extent heading into the weekend. This is due to the surface
high pressure weakening slightly in the gulf due to a low moving
into the Alaska Peninsula. This will lead to a further slackening
of the gradient over the central and eastern gulf and thus further
diminishing of winds in that area, as well as seas of 5 ft or
less, mainly driven by a westerly swell pushing into the central
and eastern gulf on Friday.

In terms of rainfall, there is not much to be had due to the
blocking ridge deflecting almost any developing systems away from
our side of the gulf. An upper level trough near in the latter
half of the week will bring light rain chances (up to 30 %) to the
northern gulf coast along with light shower chances to the outer
coast, but the next organized system that has a chance to properly
break us out of the dry and warm pattern continues to be elusive.
For the rain chances this weekend, model ensembles are trending
towards trying to break down this ridge and push a more persistent
trough and surface low into the gulf early next week, but time
will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...

Varying flight conditions across the coastal panhandle TAFS this
evening as marine layer has begun to return, with MVFR to IFR flight
conditions ongoing at Yakutat and Ketchikan. Elsewhere across the
panhandle TAF sites, VFR flight conditions prevail under an upper
level SCT deck around 10,000ft.

For tonight into Wednesday morning, anticipating aforementioned
marine layer to persist and continue to expand, moving into the
Icy Strait Corridor, southward along the Baranof Island coast, and
a resurgence northward out of Dixon entrance towards Annette
Island and the Ketchikan Borough through Wednesday morning with
flight conditions MVFR or worse with CIGS AoB 1500ft and reduced
visbys as low as 1/4SM at times. Similar conditions to yesterday,
albeit anticipating widespread VFR conditions to prevail across
the panhandle by 20 to 22z Wednesday.

Winds largely return near 5kts or less and variable overnight
into Wednesday.Strongest winds through Wednesday up to and around
15kts and gusts up to possible 25kts under any sea breeze
interactions. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Little change from yesterday. High pressure
continues to control our skies here in SE AK. Swell remains out of
the south at 2ft 14-18 seconds, with wind waves of 6 to 10 ft less
than 10 seconds along the Prince of Wales (PoW) Coast and Dixon
Entrance. These wind waves are being driven by fresh to strong
breezes (17 to 27 knots) out of the NW, highest winds off the coast
of PoW and Cape Fairweather. Wind speeds look to decrease for the
second half of the week as the high pressure weakens.

Inside: Sea breezes continue to be the primary concern for the inner
channels over the next 48 hours. Reported winds speeds have been
getting up to around 10 to 20 kts in the usual trouble spots, Near
Point Couverden, the tighter spots in Stephen`s Passage, and in
Southern Chatham Strait. Winds should calm down during the overnight
and stay lighter into Tuesday morning before picking back up again
for Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds look to decrease for the second
half of the week as the high pressure weakens.
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ319-325-328-330-
     332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-661>664.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Bezenek

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