926
FXAK67 PAJK 291229
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
429 AM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Fairly quiet weather
continues with high pressure over the eastern gulf of Alaska. A
change from yesterday is that the cloud cover over the gulf has
spread to include Cross Sound, Western Icy Strait up to Hoonah,
Glacier Bay, and northern Lynn Canal. Areas to the east and south
of that are still under clear skies for the most part (exception
is Klawock again with fog). High temperatures will again be the
focus for this afternoon with several areas that are not under
cloud cover reaching 70s with possible 80 in some parts of the
south. Heat advisories continue for the southern panhandle today
with the higher temps mainly in inland areas away from the effects
of the water and any sea breezes. Again record highs for this time
of year are in the mid to upper 70s for most places (a few in the
low 80s for the south), so temps will likely approach and could
exceed records for the day in various areas.

With the warm weather, sea breezes will be the main driver of any
winds today with strengths expected to be similar to what was
observed yesterday. Exceptions will be areas that are now under
cloud cover which will see weaker or no sea breezes as a result
this afternoon.

On the other side of the panhandle the NE gulf coast and northern
panhandle will be seeing a weak trough riding over the top of the
ridge later today into tonight. This will be bringing some rain to
the north (mainly to Yakutat today and tonight, but the northern
inner channels could see some as well tonight. 20 to 30 percent
chance.), as well as could drive cloud cover farther east in the
northern panhandle especially tonight. Rainfall is expected to be
light with highest being up to a quarter inch at Yakutat through
late tonight.



.LONG TERM...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures in the high 60s for the northern panhandle and
  mid 70s for the southern panhandle

A broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm through the end of the weekend
and early next week, prolonging the clear skies and warm
temperatures. Remnants of a front from interior Alaska reaches the
northern outer coast Friday and attempts to push into the
panhandle. This creates a small chance for light showers to reach
the northern interior panhandle late Friday night into early
Saturday morning, but with less upper level moisture support, this
will most likely just manifest as cloud cover. Light outflow
winds in the southern panhandle will increase Sunday afternoon
when the pressure gradient begins to tighten and funnel 15 to 20
kt sustained winds out of Clarence Strait. Icy Strait and Lynn
Canal will see stronger inflow winds due to sea breezing and a
tightening pressure gradient over northern Lynn. Skagway may
experience 10 to 15 kts of southerly winds during afternoons.
Westerly winds out of Icy Strait may stay slightly elevated after
the sun sets and get caught in the outflow winds going down
Chatham Strait.

850 mb temperatures aloft have cooled down for the weekend,
though they are still reaching 12 to 14 degrees C for some areas
of the southern panhandle. Temperatures are expected to reach the
mid to low 70s, with inland areas feeling the warmest as they are
not susceptible to sea breezes. The northern panhandle will see
high 60s through the weekend. This will increase again early next
week, with EFIs indicating high max temps peaking on Wednesday. An
upper level low looks to move up from the southeastern gulf
Wednesday afternoon before jumping into the central gulf. Models
have become more in line with the EC having the low move into the
central gulf and then jump onshore over the panhandle, though the
GFS still wants to hold off for a little longer. The associated
surface inflection could bring precipitation back to the panhandle
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Fog and marine stratus continue to persist this
morning along the Gulf coast waters as well as into the Icy
Strait corridor this morning. These conditions are expected to
persist through the morning hours before dissipating as we head
into the warmer parts of the day. Winds continue to be light
across most of the area allowing these conditions to continue.
Winds are expected to increase around mid morning to the afternoon
and sea breezes develop. AAWU concerns for icing or turbulence
continue to remain well west of PAYA. Otherwise flying conditions
look to continue to be favorable for the TAF period other than
impacts from the marine layer.

&&

.MARINE...

Inner Channels: Local wind patterns from valley drainage winds at
night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are still the
main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach 15 kt in Icy
Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds and seas of 3 ft
or less for most areas expected through late week. Exception:
Clarence Strait will see some NW winds (up to 15 kt) as the ridge
repositions to the central gulf through Saturday.

Outside Waters: Ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf
is starting to move west. Highest winds and seas currently are W
of 140W and along the near coast waters of Baranof and Prince of
Wales Islands but even than are only approaching 20 kt and 4 to 7
ft seas at the various offshore buoys. Central and northern gulf
winds are expected to start to lighten and turn W by Friday
afternoon as a trough moves through the ridge from the W. Seas
will still remain around 7 ft into the early weekend. East of 140
W, mainly will be seeing 10 kt or less of wind and seas gradually
increasing to 7 ft or less into the weekend. Exception: the near
coastal areas S and E of Cape Edgecombe will see NW wind
increasing to 20 to 25 kt into Friday night as the ridge axis
shifts W.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Continued very warm temperatures over 70 degrees and
no rain are continuing to dry out the fine fuels. The dry weather is
expected to continue for an additional week so there is little
chance of rewetting the soils and fine fuels. Will be keeping an eye
on the situation, but lower resistance to any possible spreading of
fires is a minor concern.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330>332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK/Contino
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...EAL
FIRE WEATHER...Bezenek

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