513
FXAK67 PAJK 091828
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
928 AM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.UPDATE.../To add the 18Z aviation discussion/...

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A very active late weekend in SE AK with heavy rain across most
  of the panhandle, high wind gusts in the southern panhandle, and
  heavy snow on the Haines and Klondike highways.

- Low pressure sliding north will spread moderate to heavy precip,
  mostly rain, to SE AK through Sunday afternoon.

- Wind gusts upwards of 60 mph have been observed overnight in the
  southern panhandle and will start to diminish this morning.
  Elevated wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph possible for the rest of
  the panhandle as well as the low moves north Sunday.

- Heavy snow is possible in the far northern panhandle ahead of
  the low. But this part of the forecast has high uncertainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A strong area of low pressure is moving N through
the eastern gulf this morning. As of 5 am the low center is around
55N 136W with the associated front stretching SE along the outer
coast to Haida Gwaii. Precipitation has spread over the entire
panhandle at this point (except for areas W of Cape Fairweather)
with most areas seeing rain. It has been rather heavy in the
southern panhandle with consistent hourly rain rates up to 0.3"
per hour overnight. In the north, enough cold air has invaded at
lower levels that Hoonah, Haines, the Haines Highway, and the
higher elevations of the Klondike Highway are seeing accumulating
snow (likely just a few inches so far based on webcams). There is
also a rain snow mix being observed in the Mendenhall Valley of
Juneau this morning, but no observed accumulations. The low is
expected to trek N to near Cross Sound by afternoon before passing
into the southern Yukon this evening.

Precip is expected to continue today and for the north intensify
as the main low center continues its northward trek. Winter storm
warnings remain up for the Haines and Klondike highways as snow is
continued to be expected today with the highest accumulations
occurring during the day today. Meanwhile the heavier rain for
the south and central panhandle is expected to start a gradual
diminishing trend later this morning. By evening much of the
heavier rainfall will be moving east of the area (except for
Hyder) and should mostly be done by late Sunday night. Still we
expect around another inch or two of rainfall for most areas
through Sunday evening. This will be on top of the 1.5 to over
three inches that has already fallen over the southern panhandle
overnight. The flood watch remains up at the current time.

Winds have also been frisky. Wind gusts to 60 to 65 mph have been
observed in the southern panhandle at sea level overnight and
occasional gusts to 55 mph are still occurring at Hydaburg and
Metlakatla. Additionally gusts to 35 mph have been observed
farther north at Wrangell, Petersburg, and Sitka early this
morning. High wind warnings are still up for the southern
panhandle this morning though the gusts are starting to show signs
of diminishing and should gradually do so through the morning. The
stronger southerly winds are expected to spread north as the low
moves north today, eventually even causing Lynn Canal to switch
from its current N 25 kt to a S 25 kt late this afternoon. Of
concern is the area around Cross Sound when the low center moves
over that area this afternoon. This low is following a similar
track to the storm that caused damage at Elfin Cove earlier this
fall. It is not as strong as that storm, but it is expected to
bring a period of gusty winds (40 to 55 mph gusts) and an abrupt
wind shift (E to W in a short time period) to the Cross Sound area
this afternoon. This area will be closely watched today as the low
gets closer.

.LONG TERM...While the big story is in the short term forecast, the
panhandle will not be out of the woods just yet by the start of next
week. A gale force low is expected to develop along an elongated
trough extending from a system off of Kamchatka. This low will
develop southwest of the Alaska Peninsula, moving eastward into the
northern gulf Monday, pushing a gale force front into the panhandle
sometime Monday afternoon. This low will quickly become cutoff from
any upper level steering flow and also any upper level support, as
an amplifying trough in the jetstream will move over the gulf
Tuesday, overtaking the surface low. Overall this will lead the low
to be vertically stacked and likely occluded, or near that phase,
when the front pushes into the panhandle. This weakening of the
system, combined with the lack of upper level steering, has caused
deterministic models to have varying tracks for this feature Tuesday
into Wednesday. When checking ensemble model guidance, the general
consensus, aside from the weakening trend, is for the system to slow
down, and then lift northward into the central or northeast
panhandle before dissipating. During this whole time though, it
would continue to bring onshore flow to the panhandle with light to
moderate showers and some possibility for isolated thunderstorms
along the outer coast in the post frontal environment Tuesday
evening. Beyond this early week system, the outlook looks fairly
benign due to the aforementioned significant dip southward in the
jetstream through midweek. It will not be until later in the week
that the jetstream rebounds and another short wave disturbance may
spin up in the vicinity of Prince William Sound, with no significant
impacts expected from it at this time.

A band of moderate to heavy precipitation will accompany this front,
with heaviest rates along the outer coast due to orographic
enhancement. Overall 24 hour totals from from Monday morning through
Tuesday morning look to range from 1 to 2 inches as of this
discussion. For the far northern panhandle, the Haines and Klondike
Highways will likely remain cold enough to receive more snow
accumulation, with the prospect of snow for the cities of Haines
and Skagway being much more dubious. Stay tuned for further
refinement of the early week forecast as the weekend progresses.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Monday/...An impactful area of low pressure
it pushing its way northward, through southeast Alaska today.
Primarily MVFR conditions are in store for the period with dips
into IFR for areas that see heavier precipitation this morning, &
areas that receive heavier rainfall & areas in the far northern
panhandle, primarily around the Icy Strait corridor & northward,
that receive snowfall, today. Breezy SFC wind conditions out of a
northerly direction ahead of the low & out of a southerly
direction behind it are anticipated through the TAF period. A
frontal system approaches the region from the southwest on Monday,
which will end up lowering flight conditions & increasing winds,
once again. LLWS magnitudes up to around 50 kt continue to be in
store out of a generally southerly direction centered up at around
2 kft, today, with the highest values the farther south in the
panhandle you go.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: A strong low near 55N 136W is moving in
a generally northward direction and is expected to be near Cross
Sound (still moving north) by this afternoon. E of the low track,
gale force southerly winds to 40 kt are blowing with seas to 20 ft
observed just off Prince of Wales Island. W of the low track,
winds are gale force northerly (to 35 kt) with seas of around 15
kt and gradually diminishing the farther W you go. These
conditions are expected to transition to mostly W gale force
winds (35 kt) for most areas by this afternoon as the W flow on
the south side of the low takes over as the low moves into the
Yukon. Into tonight expect a diminishing trend in wind and waves
and a shift to southerly for wind direction before the next front
arrives Monday from the W bringing more gale force winds.

Inside Waters: The inside waters are showing two faces with the
southern channels seeing gale force (to 45 kt, especially in
Clarence Strait) southerly winds while the north has northerly
winds this morning. The stronger southerly winds in the south have
not gotten any farther north then Petersburg and Kake as of 5 am.
The north meanwhile has been seeing E and N winds to 25 kt
depending on where you are with northerly pressure gradient flow
successfully overwhelming the synoptic flow so far. That is
expected to change through the day with the southerly winds
spreading all the way through the inner channels by late this
afternoon, especially when the gulf low jumps into the southern
Yukon and the northerly pressure gradient flips to a southerly
gradient. Southerly winds will likely reach 25 to 30 kt in the
north this evening. Seas will mainly range around 4 to 6 ft with
higher seas near ocean entrances. Winds and seas should then start
a gradual diminishing trend late tonight into early Monday before
starting to increase again Monday afternoon as the next front
pushes into the panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...An atmospheric river continues to dump heavy to
moderate rain for many areas of the panhandle. Heaviest rainfall
has been over the southern panhandle with upwards of 3 inches
having fallen in some places overnight. Forecasted PWAT
(precipitable water) values continue to be impressive for this
time of year, with high resolution guidance indicating near 1.2
inches of PWAT. "Normal" this time of year is near 0.5 inches.
Associated with this deep plume of moisture will be dynamics able
to effectively squeeze this moisture out, through a negatively
tilted trough and moist southerly flow interacting with terrain.
The higher terrain in the southern region is situated very well to
receive near 8 inches of rain through Sunday night, with near 5
inches storm total rain for sea level communities.

Through coordination with the AK River Forecast Center, we are not
concerned with flooding of major rivers. The main threat continues
to be flooding of areas with poor drainage and ponding of water
in more urban environments. Another major factor is a
combination of high wind and heavy rainfall, bringing chances for
isolated landslides in Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla

The rain is expected to start diminishing Sunday afternoon and
will have mostly moved off to the east by Sunday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ322.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323-327.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ329.
     High Wind Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-031>036-641>644-661>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-053-651-652-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAL
HYDROLOGY...EAL

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