103
FXAK67 PAJK 312254
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKDT Sat May 31 2025

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday/...High pressure ridging will build
over the panhandle through the short term. This will help
decrease showers and increase sunshine...for some.

Key messages:
-Showers can`t be ruled out for the northern panhandle.
-Breaks in the clouds and more sunshine is expected for the
 southern panhandle.
-Temps remain unremarkable with lows in the 40s and highs in the
 50s.

Details:
After a very rainy end of May, June looks to kick things off with
quieter weather. The overall expected pattern in the short term is
a ridge of high pressure will build over the panhandle and slide
east. Normally, ridges bring stable air with decreasing showers
and clouds. But this is not a normal looking ridge. A short wave
trough looks to ride the far northern edge of this ridge later
tonight into Sunday morning. Because of this ridge-rider low,
showers can`t be ruled out for the northern panhandle tonight into
tomorrow. The southern half will be farther into the ridge, so
drier skies with decreasing clouds are expected.

.LONG TERM.../Next week/...After a drier weekend, rain returns
next week. At times the rain could be heavy, especially along the
northeast coast, including Yakutat.

Key messages:
-Lingering leftover shower chances early in the week.
-Another round of moderate to heavy rain is possible mid-week.
-Dry weather possible late in the week.
-Temps remain unremarkable with lows in the 40s and highs in the
 50s, though upper 50s to low 60s are possible in the southern
 panhandle.

Details:
A consolidated upper low centered over the Bering Sea/eastern
Aleutians will start the period on Tuesday, will be relatively
deep for early June. This will support a low that will lift
northward towards the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday into Wednesday,
continuing strong onshore flow to fuel moderate to heavy rainfall
across the southern Coast and parts of the northern Panhandle.

The expected ample moisture streaming into parts of southern
Alaska, in the form of a weak to moderate atmospheric river, will
produce areas of rainfall that could be heavy across southern
Alaska before moving eastward. There is some evidence that this
stream of moisture will make it to Yakutat. Farther east, light
rain may reach Southeast Alaska by late 0Monday, and moderate to
perhaps locally heavy rain could occur in Southeast Alaska around
midweek depending on the timing of lows. Gusty winds may accompany
these systems as well.

After mid-week, the guidance supports mean troughing over
western Alaska, with potential ridging over SE AK. However, the
potential ridging over SE AK has a wide range of uncertainty. Most
of the traditionally trustworthy model guidance has a ridge over
the panhandle late next week into the weekend. That being said,
there is still a strong enough signal for the ridge to break down
quickly, allowing the troughing over western Alaska to slide east,
giving SE AK more rain. Stay tuned for updates through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Conditions have begun to improve with some areas of
the panhandle continuing to have reduced visibilities and ceilings
to MVFR and IFR conditions. This is due to isolated showers
continuing to lower ceiling with short times of reduced
visibilities. This is mainly occurring in Klawock as they have
held on to the lower clouds for longer. Flying conditions are
still expected to see improved ceilings to above 4000 ft by this
evening for most of the panhandle, and tomorrow morning for the
central panhandle. Increased wind speeds will still be observed
over Skagway and Haines into tomorrow. There will be a short time
this evening that winds slightly relax before increasing again
tomorrow morning. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible near
Skagway. Otherwise, the general improving trend continues tonight
into tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE.../ through Monday night / A weak trough is moving
through the back side of ridge at the surface and aloft. Ridge
axis will move through panhandle late Sunday Winds under the ridge
axis leading to a period of light winds or topping out under 15
kts, and most under 10 kt. The next incoming frontal band Monday
will push a band of 20 kts into the coastal area, with 25 west of
Icy Bay to near Cape Suckling later part of Monday. Sea states
lowering below 8 ft Saturday evening but there will be arise ahead
of the incoming.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....GJS/WPC
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau