142
FXAK67 PAJK 140536
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
936 PM AKDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance. Long range
section also updated.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- High pressure continues through Monday with drier weather,
  partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid
  70s.

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through Monday, with
  afternoon sea breezes up to 10 kts expected.

- Pattern change on the horizon as a weather system approaches
  late Tuesday, bringing a return of rain and elevated winds
  across the panhandle by mid week.

SHORT TERM...

Ongoing forecast remains mostly unchanged from its previous
iteration, with high pressure sitting over the gulf at the surface
and a modest ridge aloft. This ridge does look to have minor
disturbances moving along the NE gulf coast, which look to
provide some minor lift and cloud development, which look to
advect over SE AK later today and tonight. As such, not exactly
expecting similar, more widespread radiation fog conditions
tonight and tomorrow morning. That being said, the NE gulf coast
into Cross Sound could have some lower clouds and reductions in
visibility. Going into Monday morning, a proper shortwave
disturbance, as weak as it is, looks to move from the NW to SE
across the panhandle. May see some mild lift and drizzle
conditions with this passing shortwave, particularly in the
morning hours. In wake of the shortwave, looking to see a building
of the ridge aloft behind it, increasing its amplitude, and
clearing out skies once more.

Going into Tuesday, we have the beginnings of a stream of moisture
coming up from far south in the Pacific. As of now, it is
currently in line for the Aleutian to Anchorage area for today and
tomorrow, but this plume looks to wrap around the ridge, pushing
the high pressure southeastward, and bringing rain back to the
panhandle. Not expecting much impact from this round of rain, as
the anticyclonic flow the moisture is following does not lend
itself to strong lift dynamics, but could see some moderate rain
for the Yakutat area mainly in part to orographic lift. Going into
the midweek, however, there are signs that mesocyclones developing
along the moisture plume may help redirect and enhance moisture
going into the northern panhandle. Confidence is low at this time,
with no flooding concerns. More information in the long term
section.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/ Upper level features show
a rather active pattern through the long range period. We start
out with overall zonal W to E flow over much of the region that
will gradually transition to a broad upper trough stretching from
the Russian Far East to NW Canada by the weekend. The transition
is set in motion by an upper low moving out of Russia late week
that eventually anchors itself over SW mainland Alaska. The broad
trough stays in place into early next week, but several short
waves are evident rotating around the southern edge of it.

At the surface, this translates into a rather active pattern for
SE AK. First, we are still expecting a front to arrive Wednesday
for the northern half of the panhandle bringing a batch of rain
and wind with it. The wind forecast has not really changed with
the highest winds still expected in the northern inner channels
around Wednesday morning (20 to 30 kt southerly winds, highest in
northern Lynn). The rain forecast however does have a few changes.
The surface ridge that is still over the eastern gulf at this time
is expected to cause the front to rapidly weaken as it moves east.
So while Yakutat is still likely to see moderate to heavy rain
rates for a time (rain totals around 1.5 inches), areas farther
east are expected to receive not as much (around an inch at most
for the northern panhandle through late Wed night). After this
front, Thursday may offer some break in the rainfall, but with
continued onshore flow clouds and showers will still be around for
most areas. Into late week and the weekend, the forecast has
become more active, now featuring a front coming into the
panhandle on Friday and Friday night with a following front coming
in late Saturday. Needless to say that the general trend is toward
a more active and wetter weather pattern into next weekend. With
all the clouds and rainfall around, temperatures will also show a
trend toward cooling more toward normal temperatures for this time
of year across the entire panhandle. In this case it means high
temperatures in the mid 50s to near 60 for most areas.

AVIATION... A high pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is leading
to fairly benign flight conditions across the Alaska Panhandle
today. Tonight, the primary concern for aviation will be the
potential for the marine layer fog. The highest confidence exists
for LIFR ceilings and visibilities for Yakutat, Klawock, and
Petersburg. MVFR ceilings are also expected for Sitka, and perhaps
Gustavus.

While the highest confidence in lowered conditions exists along the
Gulf Coast, the marine layer clouds could make it as far inland as
Juneau. As of now, confidence is low for Juneau. By mid-morning, the
marine layer fog should dissipate. While there are some very low
rain chances, the forecast is generally expected to be dry, and VFR
through the end of the TAF period. A weak shortwave mave bring some
ceilings around 5000 feet Monday evening for the Southern Panhandle,
but ceilings are expected to stay above 3000 feet.

MARINE...
Inside Waters: No major changes to the marine forecast in the
short term with fairly benign conditions continuing Sunday night
and into Monday. A marine layer offshore in the gulf is expected
to redevelop along the coast overnight, and once more encroach
into Icy Strait/S Glacier Bay and over Baranof Island. Periods of
dense fog cannot be ruled out for areas that were socked in Sunday
morning. Similar to today, fog and associated marine layer should
retreat through the late morning on Monday. Winds will remain
light through much of the day Monday, besides the typical
afternoon seabreeze influences, around 10 kt or less, with a
sporadic gusts to 20 kts for a couple hours in the afternoon
before quickly diminishing into the evening. Some higher winds are
possible in Clarence particularly along the Tongass Narrows in the
afternoon Monday, similar to today. Winds overnight are expected
to become light and variable, with some northerly component near
Taiya Inlet from interior drainage winds. Wave heights remain
ranging 0 to 3 ft into Monday.

Outer waters: Same story different day for the gulf waters with
high pressure dominating the Gulf into early next week bringing
winds generally out of the W-NW, with a developing southerly
component by Monday night with an approaching wave from the west.
Places north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly
component to the wind overall as well. Wave heights remain 4 to 6
feet along the coast and outer water from the westerly swell
moving through the area. For Monday morning expect the marine
layer to redevelop and bring lowered visibilities for the
northeast coastal waters. As the high pressure shifts eastward
later on Monday, winds for the central and southern portion of the
gulf will increase to 15-20 kt while points north of Cape
Edgecumbe should see NW winds remaining around 10-15 kt.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...BEM
MARINE...STJ

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