930
FXAK67 PAJK 220622
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
922 PM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the AVIATION section to include the 06z TAFS.
Update to the NEAR TERM section. Update to the LONG TERM section
to include more discussion about next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

 - Showers continue tracking into the panhandle. Isolated thunder
   has been reported this evening along the coast, will continue
   into tonight especially for the southern panhandle.

 - Winter Weather Advisory for the Klondike Highway was canceled
   earlier. Snow is still expected, but not to advisory levels.

 - Active shower pattern continues through the weekend.

 - High uncertainty with next week`s forecast. One scenario would
   continue the rain-showery pattern while another scenario would
   give dry skies and colder-than-normal temps.


&&

.NEAR TERM.../Tonight/...Forecast remains on track with southwest
onshore flow continuing to push showers into the panhandle. Isolated
thunderstorms are still forming along the outer gulf coast but the
bulk of the activity has transitioned to near Prince of Wales
island. A weak shortwave rotated into the eastern gulf and it
brought more organized rain to the panhandle this evening. Total
rainfall amounts will remain on the lighter side tonight but
individual showers have, and will continue to produce, brief
heavier rain.

In the far northern panhandle, snow showers will still move
through the area overnight, with accumulations lessening into
Saturday. Around 3 inches are expected at higher elevations, and
periods of blowing snow will be possible with gusty winds
diminishing through the night.

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday and Saturday Night/...Precipitation
continues its downward trend through the day on Saturday, with
showers becoming less numerous by Saturday night, with a respite
from the recent rounds of precipitation in sight for Sunday.

Aloft, the steering flow is finally shifting, with the rex block
over the interior of the state falling apart as the high pressure
to the north weakens, opening the way for the broad area of
troughing over the Gulf to be ejected eastward through Sunday and
Monday.

On Saturday, this will materialize in the lower levels as a
weakening low diving into the central Gulf. The low`s positioning
will ensure that the bulk of the shower activity stays offshore,
orbiting around the low, as onshore flow concurrently diminishes.
By Saturday night, PoPs will have dropped significantly across the
northern half of the panhandle as a result, although higher
chances of precip may linger for the far southern areas as a weak
shortwave sweeps in. Most areas near sea level will still see
precipitation fall as rain early on, though chances of snow mixing
in will rapidly increase in areas near sea level through the day.
Otherwise, snow is expected for mountain tops, with some
accumulation likely as well along the Klondike and Haines
Highways.

Temperatures will be on a general downward trend by Saturday
night as cold air advection from the western part of the state is
swept around the southern flank of the low and moves into the
panhandle. Winds will generally remain on the lower side, with 5
to 10 kt for many of the inner channels, and 15 to 20 kt for much
of the outer coastal waters. The main changes made to the forecast
were a downward trend in temperatures for some locations Saturday
night, along with an earlier changeover to mixed precip for some
locations, and lower wind speeds by lat Saturday in the inner
channels as the pressure gradient goes increasingly parallel.

.LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, current forecast
guidance looks similar to yesterday with a low persisting in the
northern Gulf before weakening.

Beyond that, high pressure is expected to build over the Interior
and into the Yukon. Beyond this part of the forecast is where the
uncertainty ramps up.

With this high pressure setting up, colder air would be possible to
slip to the south. Current forecast guidance keeps most of this
colder air in the Yukon and away from the Coast Mountains.

GEFS and EURO ensemble guidance continues to still show great
disagreement, especially with the placement of the high as it
develops. The GEFS is the most aggressive in driving the high
pressure south, which would bring increase outflow and therefore,
sunny and cold weather. The EURO ENS is much more reserved and
keeps the high farther north, which creates a weaker outflow and
would allow for continued cloudy and rain-showery weather.

With the continued disagreement, the forecast is trending towards
the warmer and wetter solution. This will need to be watched
through the weekend for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...Earlier this evening, isolated thunderstorms were the
big weather concern. As the evening went, the lightning strikes
slowly moved to the south and now, the west side of Prince of
Wales island is where the occasional lightning strike pops up. But
overall, shower activity will continue and can`t rule out
continued thunder tonight. So, low-end VFR to MVFR for the
overnight with improving weather for Saturday.

Still seeing some gusty winds around the area late this evening.
These gusty winds will continue tonight but winds will decreasing
late tonight with much calmer winds for Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A broad swath of southwesterly fresh to strong
winds (17 to 27 kts) have persisted in the central gulf through
the day, and will steadily diminish overnight. 15 to 20 ft wave
heights with 15 ft of southwesterly swell at a 15 second period
will follow through the central gulf before quickly diminishing
below 15 ft into Saturday. Onshore flow continues to direct
showers into the panhandle with the occasional lightning strike
along the outer coastal mountains. The diminishing trend in the
winds continues through Saturday, alongside wave heights
decreasing to 8 to 12 ft by Saturday night.

Inside Waters: Showers continue moving through the panhandle with
southwesterly onshore flow directing winds up through the
channels. Fresh to strong southerly breezes (17 to 27 kts) in N/S
facing channels will be diminishing through Friday night, becoming
light to gentle breezes (4 to 10 kts) by Saturday night. Near
gale force gusts (28 to 33 kts) will persist overnight before
decreasing through Saturday, with potential for isolated gusts up
to low end gale force Friday night in Northern Lynn Canal and
Stephens Passage. 2 to 4 ft wave heights are expected for the
inner channels, with 10 to 15 ft wave heights for channel
entrances decreasing to below 10 ft by Saturday. There is a chance
for isolated thunderstorms to push into the southern channels
through Friday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-036-053-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GJS
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...ZTK

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau