510
FXAK67 PAJK 292232
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
232 PM AKDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key messages:
 - A front moving along the northern gulf is bringing lower
   clouds to areas along the northern panhandle.
 - Not as warm for the weekend, but maximum temperatures will be
   in the low to mid 70s.
 - Afternoon to evening sea breezes continue for areas across the
   panhandle.

Details: A front continues to move over the Northern gulf bringing
low clouds to the northern panhandle and precipitation to the
Yakutat area. No significant rain totals are expected with this
front. Less than 0.4 inches of rain are expected for Yakutat with
around 0.6 inches for the Icy Bay area. Rain will then end tonight
allowing for tomorrow to be another dry day over the entire
panhandle. For other northern areas, specifically near Gustavus, low
clouds have stayed over the area and will remain overcast until
tomorrow morning. For areas that continue to have clear skies,
temperatures today have again increased into the mid to high 70s.
Localized inland areas near Ketchikan and on Prince of Wales Island
have reached 80 degrees as of this afternoon. Over the weekend,
temperatures will not be as warm as 850 mb temperatures aloft
slightly decrease. Daily high temperatures will still be in the low
to mid 70s.

With continuing clear skies, somethings that will continue to occur
are areas of fog, mainly over Klawock, in the morning and developing
sea breezes during the afternoon hours. Sea breezes will increase
land winds to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. The strongest of
these sea breezes have been near Skagway and Ketchikan over the past
few days. Currently, winds in Skagway have increased to 16 kts. One
difference today is the increase in cloud cover that will limit the
strength of any sea breezes near the NE gulf coast.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures increase to above normal again on Monday

A broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm through the end of the weekend
and early next week, prolonging the clear skies and warm
temperatures. Light outflow winds will increase Sunday afternoon
when the pressure gradient begins to tighten and funnel 15 kt
sustained winds out of Clarence Strait. Icy Strait will see
increasing inflow sea breezes which will meet up with the outflow
and increase wind speeds down Chatham Strait. Sea breezes will
attempt to make it to coastal communities, but may have trouble
combating the outflow winds which will decrease their speeds.

Maximum temperatures in the southern panhandle are expected to
reach the mid to low 70s Sunday, with inland areas feeling the
warmest as they are not susceptible to sea breezes. The northern
panhandle will see high 60s through the weekend, with inland areas
breaching low 70s. Minimum temperatures will reach the low 50s to
high 40s, as the lack of cloud cover allows the land to cool much
more significantly at night. Temps will increase to above normal
again on Monday, with MaxT EFIs of 1 for the entire work week. 16
to 17 degrees C 850 mb temps aloft have spread to a majority of
the panhandle, with the southern panhandle potentially seeing 18
to 19 degrees C. This indicates that many communities may see
temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s starting Monday, and even
higher for the southern panhandle.

An upper level low moves up from the southeast Wednesday
afternoon before jumping into the central gulf. Models have
slightly more agreement than yesterday having the low jump onshore
over the panhandle, though the GFS still wants to hold off for a
little longer. The associated surface inflection could bring
precipitation back to Yakutat Thursday, reaching the rest of the
panhandle Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...
No major changes to current TAF thinking. Through the rest of
Friday, high forecast confidence of VFR conditions across
majority of the panhandle TAF sites with CIGS AoA 5000ft through
06z this evening. Main aviation problem continues to be persistent
IFR to MVFR flight conditions for Yakutat and Gustavus through
the day around 1000ft to 3000ft as decaying front pushes eastward
across the N Gulf Coast. Widespread dry conditions and VFR flight
conditions prevail by Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening.

Strongest winds through the rest of the afternoon expected near
Skagway and Ketchikan, with sustained winds up to 15kts and gusts
up to possible 25kts. Elsewhere across the panhandle, winds
should remain around 12kts or less through the period, but can`t
rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts under any sea breeze
interactions. Winds largely return near 5kts or less and variable
overnight into Saturday. No LLWS concerns through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inner Channels: Local wind patterns from valley
drainage winds at night and sea breezes in the afternoons and
evenings are still the main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes
could reach 15 kt in Icy Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise
lighter winds and seas of 3 ft or less are expected through late
week. An exception to this is across southern inner channels and
Cross Sound where winds will slightly increase tonight to around
15 kts as the ridge begins to reposition itself over the central
gulf. After tonight, areas near ocean entrances will remain
elevated as the stronger winds for the areas specified above
decrease.

Outside Waters: A ridge of high pressure over the eastern gulf is
starting to move west once again increasing the pressure gradient
over the eastern gulf coast tonight into tomorrow. Winds at that
time will start to increase to northerly fresh to strong breezes of
20 to 25 kts and continue into the start of the week. The strongest
of these winds will be west of Prince of Wales Island and the Cross
Sound area. Along with the strongest winds, these areas will have
the highest seas with wave heights of 7 to 9 ft, building tonight.
Other areas around the gulf will have wave heights of 4 to 6 ft into
the start of the week. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will keep much of the panhandle dry into the
weekend and into next week. Low risk for fire weather concerns
remain, but fine fuels are being watched. Lowest inland relative
humidity expected around 30 to 50% each afternoon where skies are
clear. Warm temperatures expected with inland high temperatures
across the central and southern panhandle in the mid 70s and
isolated locations into the low 80s Friday. Cooler temperatures
move in for the weekend (60s for highs) before another warm period
expected (70s for highs) for the first half of next week. Winds
remain low except for localized sea breezes up to 15 kt in the
afternoons. Yakutat area is cooler and moister due to onshore flow
in that region, but is expected to dry out this weekend and have
some warming by early next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ328-330>332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-644-661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB
FIRE...EAL/NM

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