196
FXAK67 PAJK 021811
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1011 AM AKDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the aviation section to include the 18z TAF
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A mature stacked low with multiple weak embedded
surface lows continues to linger over the Gulf into this weekend.
Following this last round of precipitation still impacting the
Yakutat area will be some slight chances for showers in the
northern panhandle along the coast with a break for the rest of
the panhandle in terms of rain. More inland areas of the panhandle
will see some clearing in the skies today while the outer
coastline continues to see a bit more cloud cover during the day.
This will allow some areas further inland to see some warmer
temperatures, slightly above normal, for today alongside some
enhanced sea breezes in the afternoon/evening.

As we move into this evening, the next embedded low will bring a
wave of precipitation up into the central and southern panhandle
from the southwest. This will bring some light to moderate
rainfall to the southern coastline of Baranof Island and the
western coast of POW later tonight before pushing through the rest
of the panhandle overnight. The areas seeing the most
precipitation will be the central and southern panhandle,
particularly along the coastline, with the highest QPF amounts
between 0.10 and 0.15 inches every 3 hrs around early morning. As
it moves through the morning Sunday through the rest of the
central panhandle and up to around Icy Strait corridor, rainfall
will be light with QPF between 0.05 and 0.10 inches every 3 hours.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Tuesday night / Vertically stacked low
weakens into an open trough extending back to the stronger low
that has moved into the Bering Sea going into Monday. A new low
that had developed from the Bering Sea feature moves into the
southern gulf and than towards Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance
region by Monday afternoon. This will bring some better rainfall
totals with a fresh low were Rainfall totals will likely reach
over an inch for 24 hours Monday and Tuesday. Winds for the
southern panhandle will pick up as well where gusts into the 25 to
30 mph for the southern portion of the panhandle.

Around mid week the upper level flow pattern will be building a
ridge along the Canadian coastline and south, so the flow will be
more Southwesterly over the gulf towards the panhandle. A present,
the favored area for rains will be to the southern, and northern
possibly seeing rain, but not as much as the southern.

&&

.AVIATION...A good day for flying looks to be in store Saturday,
with fog and low stratus clouds dissipating as daytime heating
takes hold. Yakutat has recently broken out of lingering rain
showers, and the last of the dense fog in Frederick Sound is
currently rising. VFR conditions have largely taken hold, with
CIGs rising to above 5000 ft and widely clearing out for many
areas of the panhandle. Winds will remain on the lighter side for
most locations, save for usual sea breeze impacts during the
afternoon and evening hours.

The good weather will last until the evening, when CIGS begin to
fall along the outer coast as another wave enters the panhandle.
Chances of rain and potential for MVFR conditions will follow the
band as it moves NE up the panhandle through Sunday. Some fog for
the far northern panhandle cannot be ruled out early Sunday
morning either, as precip and cloud cover arrives first across the
outer coast and southern half of the area.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: Tighter pressure gradient between an
embedded low rotating through and the outer coast will continue
to bring 15 to 20 kt winds from the E along the northern coastline
through midday. These winds will diminish by tonight to 10 kt or
less. The next embedded low moving up will bring another
tightening of the gradient by the afternoon, increasing winds
along the coast from 15 kt to 20 kt before diminishing later
tonight. Seas of 5 to 6 ft are expected in this same areas along
the coastline. S to SW swell with wave period of 5 to 7 seconds
expected.

Inside Waters: Most areas will remain light to up to 10 kt,
however there will be some winds up to 15 kts in many of the N-S
oriented channels as the next embedded low approaches by the
afternoon and creates a tightened gradient with a surface ridge
over the panhandle. As the low settles off of Baranof Island and
allows for winds to shift from SE to more E coming out of Cross
Sound, there will be some increased winds to around 15 kt coming
out of Cross Sound and potentially also around Point Couverden and
near Scull Island. The winds in Clarence Strait will also begin
to pick up later tonight following the wind shifting to be more
from the SE after the shortwave pushes through, with winds of 15
to 20 kt possible near Dixon Entrance and along some of the
geographically narrower parts of Clarence Strait. Winds will begin
to diminish throughout tomorrow afternoon to around 10 kts across
most of the inner channels, with southern Clarence Strait still
expecting the increased winds of around 15 kt to last a bit longer
into the day.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...GFS/ZTK
MARINE...Contino

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