925
FXAK67 PAJK 301258
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
458 AM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ A weak trough moving
through the northern panhandle is bringing increased cloud cover
to the northern half of the area this morning. Some very brief
light rain has also been reported in some locations of the north
overnight as well. This trough will have an effect on the weather
for the panhandle on Saturday and Saturday night due to increased
onshore flow, mainly in the form of cooler max temperatures and
more cloud cover (particularly for the north) compared to
yesterday. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today and tonight
with max temps into the 60s for the north and 70s for the south.

With the warm weather, sea breezes will continue to be the main
driver of any winds today. However the strength of these sea
breezes will likely be somewhat weaker given increased cloud cover
in some areas and cooler max temperatures.


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures increase to above normal again on Monday

A broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm through the end of the weekend
and early next week, prolonging the clear skies and warm
temperatures. Light outflow winds will increase Sunday afternoon
when the pressure gradient begins to tighten and funnel 15 kt
sustained winds out of Clarence Strait. Icy Strait will see
increasing inflow sea breezes which will meet up with the outflow
and increase wind speeds down Chatham Strait. Sea breezes will
attempt to make it to coastal communities, but may have trouble
combating the outflow winds which will decrease their speeds.

Maximum temperatures in the southern panhandle are expected to
reach the mid to low 70s Sunday, with inland areas feeling the
warmest as they are not susceptible to sea breezes. The northern
panhandle will see high 60s through the weekend, with inland areas
breaching low 70s. Minimum temperatures will reach the low 50s to
high 40s, as the lack of cloud cover allows the land to cool much
more significantly at night. Temps will increase to above normal
again on Monday, with MaxT EFIs of 1 for the entire work week. 16
to 17 degrees C 850 mb temps aloft have spread to a majority of
the panhandle, with the southern panhandle potentially seeing 18
to 19 degrees C. This indicates that many communities may see
temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s starting Monday, and even
higher for the southern panhandle.

An upper level low moves up from the southeast Wednesday
afternoon before jumping into the central gulf. Models have
slightly more agreement than yesterday having the low jump onshore
over the panhandle, though the GFS still wants to hold off for a
little longer. The associated surface inflection could bring
precipitation back to Yakutat Thursday, reaching the rest of the
panhandle Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect generally VFR category flight conditions for most of the
Panhandle through the period with enhanced afternoon sea breezes
for most locations in the Panhandle. The exception will be the
Outer Coast and the western half of the Icy Strait Corridor. These
areas will see down to around the MVFR/IFR category range during
the morning hours due to marine layer influence for the central &
southern Outer Coast & the Icy Strait Corridor, including PAGS,
PASI, & PAKW. A combination of marine layer influence & influence
from a decaying frontal system, bringing some light showers, will
be the culprits for the northeastern Gulf Coast area, including
PAYA. Flight conditions should improve up to the VFR category for
by noon Alaska time for all TAF locations. Marine layer influence
may return Saturday night for the aforementioned areas - with
similar results as mentioned previously. LLWS values continue to
be benign through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Inner Channels:Local wind patterns from valley drainage winds at
night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are still the
main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach 15 kt in Icy
Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds and seas of 3 ft
or less are expected through the weekend. An exception to this is
Clarence Strait where NW winds of 15 kt are expected to continue
blowing, and ocean entrances where any NW or W exposures will
allow stronger NW winds up to 20 kt from the near coastal water of
the gulf to invade.

Outside Waters: Area of high pressure has repositioned itself
into the central gulf decreasing winds and seas there and in the
northern gulf, but increasing NW winds in the eastern gulf as
pressure gradients strengthen between the gulf high and the
thermal low in British Columbia. That high is not going to be
moving much and will be strengthening through the weekend.
Currently seeing winds up to 20 kt off Prince of Wales Island and
seas of around 5 to 6 ft (mostly with a 10 sec period coming from
the W). These winds are likely to increase to 25 kt this evening
from Cape Ommaney southward as the gulf high strengthens and could
kick seas up to 8 ft by late tonight in the same area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will keep much of the panhandle dry
through the weekend and into next week. Low risk for fire weather
concerns remain, but fine fuels are being watched. Lowest inland
relative humidity expected around 30 to 50% each afternoon where
skies are clear mainly for early next week. Warm temperatures
expected through mid next week but somewhat cooler for this
weekend compared to this past Thursday and Friday (60s and low 70s
for highs expected) before another warm period expected (70s or
higher for highs) for the first half of next week. Winds remain
low except for localized sea breezes up to 15 kt in the
afternoons.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAL
FIRE...EAL

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