594
FXAK67 PAJK 261753
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
953 AM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.UPDATE... Aviation update with issuance of 18Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR to borderline MVFR conditions prevail this
morning across the panhandle with a front making its way through
the area. All locations are seeing rain with little impact on
categorical visibilities (6-10SM across the area). However, it is
possible to see periods of decreased visibility (4-5SM) through
the day across the panhandle as the front continues to move
through. CIGs are sitting AoA 3,000ft and are only expected to
drop through the rest of the day. Models are indicating a brief
let up between 3-9Z after the current front moves out of the area
and before the next front moves in, but there is uncertainty if
this will allow for improving conditions. Wind shear has been
included for PASI and PAKW through about 21Z this morning and at
PAKT later this afternoon. Most shear that will be seen is
expected to be sitting right at the threshold of 25-30kts greater
than surface winds, but due to the nature of the front, it has
been included.

-AGP

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 26 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain returns to the panhandle this weekend with the heaviest
  rainfall expected Sunday afternoon. Accumulations of 1-3 inches
  in 24 hours possible.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early next week
  with multiple weather systems.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

SHORT TERM... After benign weather during the day Friday, a more
active weather pattern is expected this weekend and into the work
week. A front is moving into the Panhandle this morning, and will
increase rain chances and cloud cover for Southeast Alaska. With
freezing levels around 4000 feet AGL, a snowflake or two may mix
in with the rain in White Pass. The frontal band does appear
weaker than when it impacted Western Alaska, but fairly
widespread stratiform precipitation is still expected across the
area.

Early Sunday, a secondary frontal band looks to bring a round of
rainfall, with perhaps some times of moderate to heavy rainfall
rates. The highest rainfall totals appear most likely on Monday
for the Central and Southern Panhandle. As the main area of low
pressure moves from the Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska, rain
chances look to remain elevated into next week with a fairly
active and wet weather pattern.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...
An active weather pattern will persist across SEAK through next
week. The big player that will send the disturbances into the Gulf
and through SEAK will be the remnants of Typhoon Dujuan and
associated upper- level low/trough that will slowly swing through
southern interior of AK and into the Gulf through early next week.
Additionally, in between each front, cooler, moist onshore flow
will keep mostly cloudy skies and showers. Sunday night into
Monday, a low/front will will pivot around the periphery of the
parent upper-low and lift northeast into the Gulf and strengthen
as it approaches the panhandle, with another surge of gusty winds.
This system will tap into a deep feed of Pacific moisture, with
moderate to heavy rain expected. In addition, cooler temperatures
aloft associated with the upper trough will result in modest
instability, bringing a potential for isolated thunderstorms,
primarily along the Gulf Coast and southern panhandle. For Tuesday
into Wednesday, rain chances and precip rates are favored to be
on a downward trend as the primary Gulf low weakens and the feed
of deeper moisture shifts southeast of the panhandle towards BC.
Continuous showers are still expected through Wednesday afternoon
before an upper level trough slides down and replaces the dying
low over the Eastern Gulf. This new disturbance will help steer
more moisture into the panhandle for Thursday and into the
extended range. The rainy and cloudy pattern will keep
temperatures seasonably cool with highs generally in the low to
mid 50s.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Sunday/...Mainly VFR conditions at this
time, although we have seen some low clouds and mist form in the
southern panhandle just ahead of the main area of mid-level
cloudiness with the incoming frontal system. Overall, across the
region as a whole, we expect a gradual deterioration to prevailing
MVFR by late morning into the afternoon. As the front gradually
pushes inland, lower ceilings and reduced visibilities in periods
of rain are expected. Winds will also be on the increase, with
speeds averaging 15-20 kts in many areas by this afternoon through
tonight. LLWS remains a concern, particularly at PASI, PAKW, and
PAKT in advance of the front, with southeasterly shear of 35-40
kts expected.

MARINE...
Inside(Inner Channels): While winds and seas during the day Friday
were fairly benign, a front moving into the Panhandle will lead
to increasing winds and waves for the region. While stronger winds
will initially be in the Gulf of Alaska, these stronger winds
will gradually move from West to East in the inner channels.

A second front will continue elevated marine conditions into the
day Sunday. Based on the expected path of the front, it is
expected to bring southerly winds of 25-30 kts near Cape
Decision.The strongest winds look to generally occur South of
Gravina Island Monday morning. As the secondary front dissipates,
so will the winds in Southern inner channels.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A front in the Gulf of Alaska
is bringing southeasterly winds around 25 kts this morning. The
strongest winds are expected near Cape Suckling, where a barrier
jet will lead to gale force winds. Winds are expected to remain
elevated through the weekend as a secondary front pushes in
Sunday. By early next week, the parent low pressure system will
move into the Gulf of Alaska, and this will lead to on-shore winds
and a wet weather pattern with elevated winds in the Gulf.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033-036-053-
     641>644-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Musall
LONG TERM...DS/ZTK
AVIATION...MBJ
MARINE...Musall


Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau