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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1018 AM AKDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion and Mid-Morning Update...

No major changes to the forecast this morning. The main headline
continues to be the unseasonably warm and dry conditions across
the Panhandle. Any lingering marine layer will rapidly burn off
this morning with afternoon sea breezes expected. Fresh to strong
near coastal winds out of the northwest today, with higher winds
possible off PoW and Cape Fairweather through this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/...

Warm. Dry. Sea breezes. are the primary threats over the short-
term forecast as abnormally high temperatures advect over the
region, especially in the southern Panhandle, where forecasted 16-18C
850mb temps are near record values for this time of year (25/75
percentile at PANT are 2.4C to 7.4C). Setting aside thermodynamics
and how that translates to surface temps the simple message is
expect abnormal heat for this time of year, about 10F-13F
afternoon highs above normal. Along with the heat, sea breezes
will dominate the inside so expect more-or-less of what we have
been seeing the last few days, for more info see marine section.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday into the weekend/...

Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues the warm, dry weather.
- Temperatures will be above normal through most of the week.
- Low rain chances (20-40%) return late this week and last into the
  weekend.

Details:

Little changes to the inherited forecast for the upcoming week. The
broad upper level ridge and resilient surface level high will keep
the panhandle dry and warm, prolonging the clear skies and above
normal temperatures.

Max temperatures in the panhandle are expected to reach well into
the 70s up to around 80 on Tuesday and potentially Wednesday. Inland
areas will be the warmest as they won`t be impacted by sea breezes.
Confidence is high for well above normal temps with forecasted 850
mb temperatures aloft around 16 to 20 degrees Celsius with the
southern panhandle at the higher end of that range. When 850mb temps
get that warm, temps in the 70s are likely.

The second half of the weekend looks like a potential pattern
change. The high pressure looks to break down as a low pressure
approaches. The will bring increasing clouds Thursday with low
chances (20 to 40%) for rain Thursday night for Yakutat. Friday,
these low chances for rain spread into the rest of the panhandle.
These low rain chances last into the weekend. When these rain
chances actually move in will be highly dependent on when the high
pressure breaks down. If the ridge looks like it will linger,
then these rain chances will be delayed. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18Z Tuesday/...

Generally VFR conditions expected across the Panhandle as any
lingering marine layer rapidly burns off this morning. Skies will
generally be few. Marine layer may build back in tonight, but
conditions should remain generally VFR. The exceptions being
PAYA and PAKW where fog and low stratus look to develop again.
Aside from afternoon elevated sea breezes in typical spots like,
winds will generally be around 5 kt or less. LLWS values continue
to be benign through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: 1030mb high continues to dominate. Swell remains out of
the south at 2ft 14-18 seconds, with wind waves of 6 to 10ft less
than 10 seconds along the Prince of Wales (PoW) Coast and Dixon
Entrance. These wind waves are being driven by fresh to strong
breezes (17 to 27 knots) out of the NW, highest winds off the
coast of PoW and Cape Fairweather. There is a decent chance to see
near 30 knots of wind for a few hours off the coast of PoW Monday
evening, have updated the forecast to reflect this. Not a great
day for small skiffs to poke their heads out to any coastal waters
exposed to WNW wind.

Inside:Sea breezes continue to be the primary concern for the
inner channels over the next 48 hours as the high in the gulf
continues to dominate our weather. Highest danger from 15 to 25
knots of wind continues to be near Pt. Couverden, western
Frederick Sound (near Cape Fanshaw into Cape Strait), southern
Chatham, and down into Clarence Strait.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions continue with poor RH recovery, relative
to rainforest standards, for areas above the marine influence
(above 1500ft). FFMC continues to drive the fire danger indices,
residing in the upper 80s to low 90s in select areas of Prince of
Wales, Ketchikan, and Skagway. The message remains consistent, we
do not expect large 10+ acre fire growth in old growth timber;
however, fire danger for fine flashy fuels continues to persist.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ319-325-328-
     330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-661>664.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJS
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...DJS
MARINE...AP
FIRE...AP

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