135
FXAK67 PAJK 112318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...Northerly outflow winds have slackened across Lynn
Canal as high pressure over the Yukon Territory slides southeast
into British Columbia. This is evident by winds picking up out of
Taku Inlet, and will also lead to easterly gap winds out of the
Stikine delta and near the Unuk river. Aside from these areas
seeing increased winds, the rest of the panhandle will see winds
diminishing and another night of cooler temperatures with
relatively clear skies overhead. Communities along and north of
the Icy Strait corridor can expect subfreezing temperatures once
more, while those along the outer coast have a better chance of
getting some cloud cover moderating their overnight temperatures.
With high pressure remaining dominant and subsidence over the
area, combined with drier air filtering in from the interior, fog
potential remains low for Saturday night into Sunday.

A gale force low will move into the northern gulf later in the day
Sunday, pushing a front towards the panhandle. Winds will pick up
along the northeast coast Sunday night as the front approaches,
with a barrier jet of low end gale force winds forming west of Icy
Cape and lasting into Monday morning. Rain will move into the
northeast gulf coast Sunday afternoon with the front and
gradually spread eastward Sunday night, with Yakutat seeing
moderate to heavy rain at times. Overall a return to milder
temperatures and active weather. For more information on what to
expect to start the next week, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...

Key Points:
 - Moderate to heavy precipitation continues into Monday near
   Yakutat.
 - Rain continues over the week with highest rain totals over the
   northern panhandle.
 - A near gale to gale force front pushes into the panhandle
   Wednesday into Thursday.

Details: As the remnants of tropical system Halong pushes inland,
bringing moderate to heavy rain to Yakutat into Monday. Over the
Yakutat area, rain totals will be around 2 to 3 inches in 24 hour,
with 48 hour totals up to 4.5 inches. In the 24 hour time frame,
multiple ensembles show around a 60% chance of exceeding 2 inches.
Rain will be the main impact with this system, but winds along the
northern gulf are likely to reach near gales up to 33 kts. Land
winds at that time, for Yakutat, will increase to around 15 mph with
possible gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. The strongest of these winds are
most likely Sunday night into early Monday morning before
diminishing through the day.  Behind this system winds in the
northern panhandle remain elevated as lee side troughing develops
along the east side of the coastal mountains. The strongest winds at
this time will be located over Lynn Canal into Stephens passage
with strong breezes to near gales of 20 to 30 kts.

Precipitation will then continue for the week before the next larger
front arrives Wednesday into Thursday. This front will once again
bring moderate to heavy rain over the northern panhandle. Currently
24 hour totals look to be around 2 to 4 inches near Yakutat, but
nothing too atypical for this time of year. One thing of note with
this system is there is still some uncertainty on when the front
will reach the panhandle. We will continue to monitor the
development and timing of this front as it gets closer.

Looking a little farther out, there is a chance of again a weak
outflow event at the end of next week Saturday. With a low pressure
system moving to the south of the panhandle, and building high
pressure to around 1020 mb, weak northerly winds can develop.
Similar to this weekend, outflow winds do not look strong at this
moment.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/

Through Sunday afternoon, expect VFR flight conditions with high
clouds building in from the west through the period. Mid-layer
cloudy deck will be lowering through Sunday afternoon at PAYA with
the approach of system that looks to bring rain Sunday evening.
There will be a slight possibility of patchy fog/low clouds
developing again early Sunday morning near PAYA, PAJN, PAPG, PAWG
and PAKW, however, confidence is not high enough for the inclusion
of fog and/or bkn low decks into the TAF forecasts.

Winds will remain generally light through the period. A few gusts up
to 20kts are possible Sunday afternoon at PAGY and PAHN. No
significant LLWS concerns at this time.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: High pressure dominating the gulf will
continue driving NW winds along the outer coast of moderate to
fresh breezes, with strong breezes impacting Dixon Entrance.
Expecting these winds to moderate overnight Saturday as the
surface high shifts east, with a gale force low riding the
Aleutian storm track into the northern coast through the start of
the week; anticipate easterly winds to build along Cape St. Elias,
reaching low end gale force by Sunday afternoon and lasting into
Monday morning and a developing westerly swell.

Inside Waters: Weak outflow winds will continue to diminish
through Saturday evening as the pressure gradient relaxes, with
prominent easterly opening river inlets like Taku, Stikine, and
Unuk seeing an increase in easterly gap winds. Current pressure
gradient highlights high probability of easterly fresh to strong
breezes impacting these areas Saturday night into Sunday,
something to watch for small skiffs planning on crossing the
aforementioned inlets, especially on a flooding tide helping to
stand up seas. Easterly winds become more organized in Icy Strait
Sunday as a gale force low moves into the gulf, winds should
settle to moderate breezes for most of the channel, with Northern
Lynn Canal hitting fresh to strong breezes out of the south by
Sunday evening. Anticipate widespread strong breezes for many
inner channels by Monday night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-651-661-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau