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FXAK67 PAJK 110534
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
934 PM AKDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 06Z TAF issuance...

The short term forecast remains on track for tonight. Winds have
started to diminish across the panhandle, except for areas in N
Lynn Canal and Clarence Strait that are holding on to 20 kts of
wind. No fog has developed yet, but with diminishing winds, the
chance of fog remains for the central and southern panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Skies have largely cleared over southeast Alaska
this Friday afternoon, as high pressure begins to assert itself
once more over the area. North/South oriented channels will see
weak outflow develop Friday into Saturday before gradually
weakening by Saturday night. Without significant low pressure in
the gulf or in the vicinity of Dixon Entrance to tighten the
gradient over the panhandle however, winds in the inner channels
are expected to only reach fresh (17 to 21 kts). Some gusts up to
around 30 kts could still be seen in Lynn Canal Saturday morning.

With this cold outflow and relatively clear skies, the Icy Strait
corridor and northward have a good chance of falling to around or
below freezing over the weekend. With skies remaining clear,
afternoon temperatures are still expected to reach the low to mid
50s in most areas. For the southern inner channels near the
Stikine Delta, residual moisture is expected to cause more fog
development Friday night into Saturday morning, though it is not
expected to be as widespread as drier air tries to push into the
area through the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday will see a slow return to an active pattern,
with rain chances slowly spreading from west to east. This
incoming rain is a result of a deep trough, associated with post
tropical system Halong moving up through the Bering, will push out
our ridge to the east. Fortunately for SE AK, our area looks to
be mostly removed from the strong winds and very heavy rain
associated with the system. What will be present is a weakening,
occluded front pushing west to east, bringing near normal to below
normal winds for this time of year for a frontal passage and
modest rainfall for Yakutat. For Yakutat, there is expected to be
a long duration period of unidirectional from the southwest, fully
saturated air moving into the area. Combined with orographic
effects, expecting an efficient rain maker with rain totals
between 3.5-4.5 inches in 48 hours. Leaned toward the higher
amounts due to the significant warm air advection, and aligned
mountains for good orographic lift.

Expecting to see the aloft trough slide to the east Monday night
into Tuesday, which will see lee side troughing on the east side
of the Coast Mountains and in the southern Yukon. This combined
with strong cold air advection pushing in behind the trough is a
good setup for a southerly push up Chatham Strait, Stephens
Passage, and Lynn Canal, with wind speeds ranging from 20-30
knots.

Beyond Tuesday, the active pattern is expected to continue. Early
indications of another front for mid to late week are definitely
there, although this does not look out of the ordinary for
October.

&&

.AVIATION...Currently high ceilings and VFR conditions continue
across the entire panhandle. Skies have cleared behind the front
allowing for the chance of fog and low stratus to redevelop
tonight across the southern panhandle. Areas around PAPG, PAWG and
PAKW are the most likely to see fog development with lowering
ceiling and visibilities because of it. However, overall
confidence for IFR flight conditions, due to fog and a low stratus
deck, are lower than the past few mornings.

Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period,
generally 10 kts or less. The only wind concern at this time is
an area of LLWS due to broad northwesterly winds over Prince of
Wales Island. Around 2000 ft, there is a chance of winds up to 25
to 30 kts near until early Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: Elevated wave heights of 9-10 ft for
near coastal areas and upwards of 12 ft in the central gulf begin
subsiding from North to South through Friday night. NW flow over
the eastern gulf, reaching 20 to 25 kt (around strong breeze),
will also begin to gradually weaken late Friday and into Saturday
as the ridge axis moves over the panhandle. By late Sunday, an
approaching system from the W will result in waveheights beginning
to build over the Northern and central gulf with a westerly
swell.

Inside Waters: High pressure returning to the area will coincide
with a weak outflow event beginning Friday night, with winds
flipping to the N and building to 15 - 20 kt (around fresh breeze)
for most of the Inner Channels that are favored during high
pressure. This N flow will linger through Saturday, slowly
weakening to 5-10 kt by Saturday night, and remaining similar
through Sunday. Can`t rule out the potential for marine layer
redevelopment for the outer coast over the weekend, but think that
northerly outflow will help reduce its overall impact. Some fog
development still likely for Frederick Sound east of Cape Fanshaw
as well as SUmner Strait Friday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...EAB/DS
MARINE...STJ

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