398
FXAK67 PAJK 191503
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
603 AM AKST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- A strong low is moving north into the southern gulf as of early
  Wednesday morning. This low sends a strong front towards the
  area bringing multiple hazards across the panhandle.

- High Wind Warnings are in effect for areas along the central to
  southern coast with gusts near 60 mph this morning into this
  afternoon.

- Winter weather products are in place for the far northern Haines
  and Klondike highways due to heavy precipitation allowing for
  wet and dense snow.

- Active weather continues into the end of the week as another
  system reaches the panhandle Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Winds have begun to increase across the southern
gulf and southern inside waters as a strong low pressure system
moves farther north into the gulf. This low brings a variety of
hazards across the panhandle with heavy wet snow falling over the
far northern highways and strong winds over central and southern
coastal cities.

First, winds have already begun to increase across the southern
coast with sustained winds near 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph so
far this morning. Winds will continue to increase with the strongest
winds occurring late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon with
gusts near 60 mph for Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands. Other
areas along the coast, especially near Ketchikan and Annette Island,
will see strong winds as well with gusts around 50 mph. Along with
strong land winds, the eastern gulf coast will see increased winds
to strong gales, around 40 to 45 kts, increasing from south to north
this morning. These gulf winds will begin to diminish late this
afternoon.

Second, this front brings moderate to heavy precipitation across the
panhandle. Rain will be the primary precipitation type, but in the
far north, precipitation will fall as snow over the Haines and
Klondike Highways. Cool northerly flow combined with heavy
precipitation rates Wednesday morning will help drive snowfall for
the Chilkat Valley into the border. This snow will be heavy and wet
due to the front bringing warm air. This allows for lower liquid to
snow ratios across the area. Most other areas of the panhandle will
see around 1 to 2 inches of rain in 24 hours Wednesday into Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...A mixed bag of conditions is in store  for the long
range forecast. On one hand, the active weather pattern continues
through the remainder of the week and the first half of the
weekend as a negatively tilted trough sets up over the Bering Sea.
On the other hand, the potential for a break is looming beginning
on Sunday as the previous steering flow breaks down and is
replaced by a rex- block over the Interior.

The long range forecast starts off with a degree of uncertainty, as
operational guidance is struggling to resolve the timing and
position of a low which will move into the panhandle on Thursday.
While confidence is high in the low`s associated front arriving
Wednesday (see the short term for further details), two separate
solutions have emerged for the parent low`s trajectory on Thursday.
Solution one - the GFS/Canadian solution, would have the low
decouple from its parent front and veer off into the SE Gulf
before weakening and steering back north, ultimately arriving in
the panhandle as an open trough. Should this solution verify,
cooler temperatures are possible along the Klondike highway and
winds generally across the inner channels would be weaker than
forecast as the S pressure gradient is weakened. The second
possible solution, favored by the NAM and Euro models, features
the low remaining in sync with its advancing front and moving up
into the NE Gulf Coast by Thursday morning. This solution would
result in stronger S winds and the potential for a warmer
Klondike Highway. For the time being, am leaning towards the
NAM/Euro solution. This not only poses a challenge for wind speed
forecasts in the inner channels - but it also poses a challenge
for snowfall totals on the Highways. Especially along the Klondike
Highway, the potential does exist for significant accumulating
snow on Thursday (6-12 inches). However, confidence is low, as
depending on the previously mentioned system track, temperatures
may be too warm to allow for significant accumulations after warm
air advection moves in Thursday morning. Stay tuned for further
updates.

Confidence is higher in another front moving in on Thursday proper
after the previous low pressure. Anticipate more rain (and
potentially snow for the Klondike Highway), followed by showers
through Friday and into Saturday. One final short wave will likely
move through on Friday, bringing another round of heavier and more
organized precipitation.

Showers diminish through the latter half of Saturday, and Sunday and
Monday will likely be mostly dry as a rex block sets up over the
Gulf and the Interior, setting the stage for weak Northerly
outflow.

&&

.AVIATION.../ through Wednesday night / The weather front
approaching the panhandle seems to stay off shore much of
Wednesday with the initial energy to the north central gulf before
the entire feature begins to move eastward. Expect the gusty low
level winds along the panhandle to maintain LLWS threats to
airports like Sitka, Klawock, Ketchikan and to a less extent
Gustavus, Juneau, Wrangell, Petersburg and Yakutat. With the
continued flow, Turbulence near terrain will be a hazard today as
well. Across the northern Lynn Canal region Snowfall instead of
rain with increase the visibility restrictions if flying into
those areas as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside Waters: Winds will continue to increase across the central
and southern inner channels this morning as a low moves north into
the gulf. So far, the strongest winds are near Cape Decision and
Point Couverden with sustained winds near 30 kts. Strong breezes to
near gales (22 to 33 kts) will continue across the inner channels
with wind gusts increasing to gale force across the central and
southern inside waters. Southern Clarence strait is likely to see an
area of gale force winds beginning late this morning into tonight.
Along with gale force winds, southern Clarence Strait could see 12
ft seas due to a strong fetch of ESE winds into the area. Winds
across the inside waters will remain elevated ahead of the next
system arriving Thursday.

Outside Waters: A strong low continues to move north into the
southern gulf as of early this morning. Winds along the eastern gulf
coast will continue to increase to strong breezes near 40 to 45 kts
and with storm force gusts along the central to southern coast.
Along with increasing winds southeasterly seas will build to near 23
to 28 ft through this afternoon. Winds and seas begin to gradually
diminish Wednesday night before another gale force system pushes
through the gulf from the west on Thursday. Gulf winds become
southwesterly Thursday night as winds slowly diminish to strong
breezes into the end of the work week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM AKST Thursday
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ323-328.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ323.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this
     afternoon for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ327.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM AKST this
     evening for AKZ328.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through this afternoon
     for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033>035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...Bezenek
MARINE...EAB

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