


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
152 FXAK67 PAJK 160616 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1016 PM AKDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .UPDATE...For the 06z TAF package. Strong front, moving through the panhandle has gusty winds and is likely resulting in wind shear, and turbulence with flow over and around the terrain. During the day, expect a westerly or southerly flow based on favored direction the inner channels. Ceilings primarily 2000 to 4000 feet overnight. Also Updated winds in Stephens Passage for Gale force winds from 30kt near Youngs Bay this evening and updated the Inside marine forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 359 pm Wed Oct 15... SHORT TERM...Little change to this upcoming storm force, barrier jet front for the panhandle tonight. Still expecting storm force winds to spread across the NE gulf coast beginning this evening and continuing through tonight. For more information regarding marine concerns, see the marine section. As for wind gusts, Yakutat looks to get hit the hardest, with wind gusts up to 50 mph late tonight. These gusts are expected to occur right as the frontal passage moves over the area and the winds shift to the south to southeast. As for areas from Juneau south, expecting to see wind gusts cap at around 35 mph, particularly in areas exposed to south to southeasterly winds. Behind the front, expecting to see rapid pressure rises, and continued windy conditions through Thursday. Along side these windy conditions, strong cold air advection from the west looks to persist through Thursday. This combined with constantly moist boundary layer and relatively warm surface conditions is expected to bring CAPE values exceeding 250-300 J/kg along the coast. With strong westerly winds and a topographic influence, isolated thunderstorms could pop up along the mountains. Due to the dry layer above 750 mb, could see some gusty winds up to 35 mph associated with these showers and thunderstorms from evaporative cooling downdrafts. LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...For Friday morning, post- frontal showers with a chance of thunderstorms remain along the Outer Coast as well as winds up to around 25 to 30 kt over the eastern gulf waters & Lynn Canal due to a relatively tight pressure gradient that will still be in place. This will keep things rather breezy over land areas, as well. The thunderstorms may bring gusty winds up to around 35 mph & moderate to heavy rainfall. After a brief lull in the winds Friday afternoon, a gale force SFC low moves up into the SE Gulf for Friday night through Saturday, bringing winds up to around 35 to 40 kt as it pushes in for the SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels, particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday afternoon, after the low has pushed into the SE Gulf, it will begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing winds over the SE gulf to 20 to 25 kt through the end of the forecast period. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon, northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25 kt as the pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time associated with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in the moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for the southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this low. For mainly Saturday night & Sunday night, around peak nighttime cooling, some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway. && .AVIATION...Currently seeing VFR conditions across the board as a high cloud deck and calm winds push into the panhandle. The southern panhandle is still seeing low CIGs stick around, though only the southernmost sites are currently MVFR. A storm force low in the western Gulf has sent a front towards the northeastern coast through Wednesday, expected to reach Yakutat in the next hour or two and moving over the entire panhandle through the evening. Strong gusty winds around 25 to 30 kts, moderate to heavy rain rates, and 35 to 45 kts of LLWS are expected at the peak of this system, with CIGs and VIS dropping to at least MVFR overnight. CIGs AoB 1500 to 2500 ft will persist through the period, with VIS expected to drop to around 4 SM as heavier rain and low scattered layers moving through. Some areas of the southern panhandle may drop to IFR with CIGs around 700 ft at the peak of the system. Gusty winds for the southern, central, and outer coast of the panhandle will last until the front moves through, and then calm down until showers begin to pop up. Winds for the northern panhandle are likely to continue through Thursday with the persistent onshore flow. The front will move out of the panhandle through Thursday morning, with westerly gulf winds continuing showers in its wake. && .MARINE... Outer waters: The storm force front is upon us, which will bring storm force winds with violent storm force gusts to the NE gulf coast in the next few hours. Expect to see these winds continue for 6 hours as the barrier jet strengthens, before shifting to the south. Similarly for the rest of the gulf coast, winds, currently sitting around 30 knots on buoy 46084, will gradually increase as the front draws near. Collocated with the strongest winds is the highest wave heights, reaching around 25 ft with a south to southeast swell. Behind this front, tight gradients from a surface high pressure in the northern Pacific and lingering surface low pressure in the northern gulf will result in a prolonged period of near gale to gale force southwesterly winds for the gulf waters. Due to the long duration, length of fetch, and strength of winds, expecting to see wave heights exceeding 25 ft in the offshore waters and 20 ft on the outside marine zones. Inside waters: With the storm force front on the inside waters doorstep, will start to see winds in easterly channels begin to increase. Specifically, the backside of Douglas, Icy Strait, Cross Sound, and Peril Strait will see increases in winds for the next few hours. One change is Lynn Canal, which is now expected to see a brief period of light winds before a southerly surge as the frontal passage moves through. Expecting to see some isolated pockets of gales in southeasterly channels during the frontal passage, but the chances do not exceed 30% and last for less than 3 hours. The exception is Clarence Strait, which look to have gales overnight tonight into early Thursday, before a sharp wind shift to the SW channels with winds less than 20 knots. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 1 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ317. Strong Wind until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ332. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672. Gale Warning for PKZ031-036-641>644-651-661>663. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>035-053. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau