962
FXAK67 PAJK 131729
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
929 AM AKDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation section to include the 18z set of
TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 604 AM AKDT Sun Sep 13 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- High pressure continues through Monday with drier weather,
  partly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid
  70s.

- Inner channel marine winds remain light through Monday, with
  afternoon sea breezes up to 10 kts expected.

- Pattern change on the horizon as a weather system approaches
  late Tuesday, bringing a return of rain and elevated winds
  across the panhandle by mid week.

SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/

High pressure continues to sit over the north Pacific and Gulf
through early in the week, keeping the panhandle dry but allowing
for some clouds to move in just along the outer coastline. This
morning, a low stratus marine layer sits just along the coast from
Yakutat down to the tip of Baranof Island, pushing into Cross
Sound. This has been encroaching in on some towns along the outer
coast this morning, with patchy fog development under the marine
deck around Yakutat and Cross Sound. Some areas of patchy fog,
with locally dense pockets, have developed in other parts of the
panhandle as well early this morning, including around POW Island.
Fog will begin to lift through the morning hours as the sun
begins to rise, with much of the panhandle seeing clear skies and
dry weather again today. Some higher cloud cover may remain along
the outer coast, but otherwise clear skies will keep much of the
inland panhandle seeing highs in the mid to high 60s and sea
breeze development during the daytime.

Overall pattern Sunday and Monday will be continued flow just along
the shore / weak onshore flow keeping most cloud cover along the
outer coast, with a marine layer bringing low clouds and patchy fog
to coastal areas during the night. Some slight chances for showers
and drizzle over the Gulf waters and just into the coast is possible
Sunday into Monday as weak upper level disturbances move over the
area, however rain chances aren`t expected to increase until Tuesday
with the next low approaching from the west.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/
Upper level pattern is rather dynamic through the long range. It
starts out with a broad ridge of high pressure situated over the
Gulf of Alaska while a sharp trough is at around 180 longitude.
That trough will be advancing east through the start of the long
range period and will proceed to push the ridge east into Canada
by Thursday. Behind it more zonal flow takes over, but not for
long. An upper level low will be digging SE from Russia by the
weekend and will eventually anchor a broad trough stretching from
the Bering Sea to the Panhandle by Sunday.

This means that the forecast for the panhandle is rather dynamic
as well. It will start out rather quiet with the ridge over the
gulf initially keeping most precipitation at bay. However, that
ridge will be starting to flatten enough that flow turns more
onshore over the northern panhandle and precipitation starts to
return to the forecast. The rain is not expected to start in
ernest until Wednesday as a front works its way eastward across
the gulf. This front does have some tropical connections, but it
is moving eastward at a decent clip and looks like it will be
weakening as it goes. So while there may be periods of moderate or
heavy rain rates (especially for the NE Gulf coast), the rapid
eastward movement and weakening nature means that those rain rates
will not be over any particular area for long. Expected rain
totals for Wed look to be around 1 to 3 inches mainly from the
central panhandle Northwestward with the highest totals expected
along the NE gulf coast. This system will also bring some wind
with 25 to 30 kt SW winds possible in the gulf while the northern
inner channels will see a burst of southerly winds up to 30 kt
during the day Wednesday.

The general trend for late week and beyond is first a drying
trend for late week as surface ridging builds over the panhandle
through lingering onshore flow could mean that showers and clouds
will be still around. The latter half of next weekend is looking
to be rather active as a more substantial front is possible as the
strong upper low that is moving into Bering sea sends a front
across the gulf. We will be watching this feature as some guidance
is suggesting this front could be min gale force as it crosses
the central gulf and somewhat wet as well.

AVIATION...Quiet weather continues this morning with areas that
have been seeing lowered ceilings and visibilities due to fog
already clearing up. This should continue for the panhandle today
with Sitka likely being the one area that sees less clearing due to
the marine layer already being well entrenched there. One thing to
watch today will be how much the clouds break up during the day for
Sitka. Elsewhere, clear skies are expected for most locations across
the panhandle with some sea breezes possible as we start to see
temperatures warm. One area that will need to be watched for the
winds today will be Haines as the winds have increased coming down
from the Chilkat valley to the Haines ASOS. Otherwise, clouds are
expected to return this evening for a lot of locations and some
return of the marine layer will occur later tonight, especially
along the outer coast which will usher in MVFR or lower conditions.


MARINE...

Inside Waters: High forecast confidence of no major inner channel
weather hazards through Sunday. As expected, a marine layer had
redeveloped out in the Gulf and along the coast overnight,
encroaching into Icy Strait/S Glacier Bay and over Baranof Island
towards Angoon. In addition, areas of dense fog ongoing across the
inner fjords within W Prince of Wales near Naukati Bay and
southern Wrangell Island. Similar to yesterday, expecting fog and
marine later to retreat through the late morning. Winds will
remain light through much of Sunday, outside the typical afternoon
seabreeze influences, around 10 kt or less, with a sporadic gusts
to 20 kts for a couple hours in the afternoon before quickly
diminishing into the evening. Winds overnight are expected to
become light and variable, with some northerly component near
Taiya Inlet from interior drainage winds. Wave heights remain
ranging 0 to 3 ft through Sunday night.

Outer waters: No major changes from the previous forecast, with the
persistent message of high pressure dominating the Gulf through
the rest of the weekend bringing winds generally out of the W-NW.
Places north of Cape Fairweather should see more of a westerly
component to the wind. Wave heights remain 4 to 6 feet along the
coast and outer water from the westerly swell moving through the
area. As the high pressure moves to the east, winds for the
central and southern portion of the gulf will increase to 15-20 kt
while points north of Cape Edgecumbe should see NW winds
remaining around 10-15 kt.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ328.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NM/STJ

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