466
FXAK67 PAJK 172340
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Wednesday night / road area of lower
pressure persists and spins up bands of showers into the southern
portion of the panhandle. Any light rain tonight limited to south
of Icy Strait area I suspect and another band will reinforce the
PoPS by morning. Yakutat area may stay in the dry with the easter
flow aloft. A ridge building over the west central gulf will drift
east Wednesday and start to shut off the precipitation still
falling across Southeast Alaska. Warming temperatures start the
later half of the week, but more on that in the long range section.


.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday/... Some easterly rain
showers will continue across the panhandle into Thursday evening,
associated with both a low in the Gulf to the west of Haida Gwaii
and a low over British Columbia. These showers will begin to
decrease into Thursday night as a surface ridge approaches the
panhandle from the west, pushing the weakening low to the
southeast. This ridge, accompanied by an upper level ridge
building over the Gulf on Friday, will help to bring drier
weather, clearer skies, and some higher temperatures into this
weekend. Models showing 850mb temperatures of between 10 and 12
degrees C moving into the area alongside this ridge, which will
bring us some warm air advection that will also aid in bringing
temperatures up. This warm air advection alongside the surface
ridging will bring some areas of the panhandle to over 70 degrees
for their highs this weekend, with the highest temperatures
looking to be Saturday afternoon and in the southern panhandle.
There are some higher (14-15 degrees C) 850mb temperatures moving
along the border with British Columbia, though this will have
little impact on the panhandle outside of Dyea, which is expected
to see highs above 80 for the weekend. Temperatures will also be
higher due to the lack of cloud cover during Friday and the
weekend, resulting in likely even higher temperatures than the
models are showing due to the long sunlight hours and surface
heating. Temperatures will then begin to decrease again Sunday
into Monday through the majority of the panhandle, with only Hyder
looking like it will stay warmer for longer.

The higher temperatures in the Yukon Territory and
British Columbia alongside their potential for some convective
showers later in the week may result in some risk for wildfires,
which may bring some haze in to Haines and Skagway. As of now we
have put haze in for the majority of the midrange forecast for
just Haines and Skagway in anticipation of this.

Winds look to stay on the lighter side over the region for the
rest of the week into the weekend. However, the pressure gradient
in the northern panhandle may tighten as the surface ridge begins
to move in while a low remains over Canada to the northeast, which
may bring some elevated winds to Lynn Canal on Thursday. Friday
into Saturday morning there will be some elevated winds along the
southern outer coast and coming out of Chatham Strait and Clarence
Strait as the ridge continues to push east while a low remains
over British Columbia, bringing some 15 to 25 kt winds as the
gradient tightens. These winds are not expected to last however
as the ridge continues to push eastward Saturday into Sunday, with
winds decreasing to between 10 and 15 kt off the coast Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through Wednesday afternoon/ Predominantly VFR
conditions throughout the panhandle this Tuesday afternoon. Sea
breezes will continue for the northern and central panhandle,
though in northern Lynn Canal outflow conditions are strong
enough to offset them. A broad low near Haida Gwaii will continue
to bring diminishing light showers to the southern panhandle
through Tuesday evening along with broken cloud decks between 5000
and 10000 feet. By Wednesday afternoon and evening, convection
forming over BC is expected to advect over the central and
northern panhandle with potential for MVFR conditions in any
heavier showers, along with erratic winds. However no significant
LLWS or surface winds are expected during the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Outside Waters: Winds for the outer waters 10 to 15 kt
generally with a few areas reaching up to 20 kt. Southeast winds
for the waters west of Prince of Wales Island and west for the
northern central gulf over the top of the ridge along the western
gulf. The flow wraps back around to a NE pattern into the central.
gulf Seas less than 6 feet near the coast into Wednesday night.

Inside Waters:Generally light winds for inner channels with a few
areas up to 20-25 kt like Five Finger Light and southern Lynn
Canal near the Junction with Icy Strait. Local sea breezes for
the northern panhandle, and maybe a less extent tomorrow wind
there will be more clouds around.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....Contino
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek

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