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FXAK67 PAJK 171946 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1046 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025

.Mid Morning and 18z Aviation Update...

No major changes to short term forecast this morning as front
continues to push into the panhandle through Monday. Main concern
will be winds increasing within the N/S inner channels through the
afternoon as front passes for places like Lynn Canal, Stephens
Passage, with winds up to 25 to 30kts by Monday evening.
Precipitation chances gradually decrease from W to E through
Monday evening as front exits the area, potential for breaks in
precip overnight into early Tuesday before another weak system
pushes into the NE Gulf coast, bringing a return of precip along
and north of the Icy Strait Corridor for Tuesday morning.

&&

AVIATION.../Until 12Z Tuesday/...
MVFR to VFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 5000ft and
intermittent visbys down to 3SM ongoing across the panhandle this
morning as front pushes inland. Not anticipating much improvement
through Monday, MVFR flight conditions become predominate through
00z with CIGS AoB 2500ft, decreasing further after 06z post FROPA
with intermittent CIGs AoB 1500ft by 15z Tuesday. Highest
potential for IFR cigs late Monday night into Tuesday morning
across the southern panhandle TAF sites like Klawock, Ketchikan,
and Petersburg. Return to MVFR to VFR flight conditions once more
through Tuesday morning as a weak system pushes into the NE Gulf
coast.

Winds across the N panhandle will remain elevated through Monday
afternoon due to aforementioned passing front, with strongest
sustained winds around 15 to 25kts with gusts up to 25 to 35kts.
Strongest winds will remain near TAF sites like Haines and at
Skagway, continuing through Tuesday morning. Winds across the S
panhandle expected to be lighter through Monday afternoon, around
10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 556 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...

SYNOPSIS...
Key Points:

- A front has begun to push through the gulf and will push into the
  panhandle today bringing increased winds and widespread
  precipitation.

- With this front, the Klondike and Haines Highways will see new snow
  accumulations Monday. The Klondike Highway will receive around
  3 to 5 inches in 12 hours.

- Active weather continues through the rest of the week with a
  stronger system mid to late week.

SHORT TERM...The anticipated front continues to move toward the
panhandle. This system has already allowed for precipitation to
fall across the northern panhandle. For many areas, this
precipitation is falling as rain, and will continue to fall as
rain, with isolated areas of mixed precipitation to snow. The
areas were all snow is falling, is mainly over the far north or
at higher elevations. Specifically the Klondike Highway will see
the most snow with accumulations up to around 3 to 5 inches.
Confidence has increased with 12 hour accumulations around 4
inches, calling for a Winter Weather Advisory from mile post 6
and northward along the Klondike. The Haines highway is already
seeing snow fall as well, with expected accumulations around 2 to
3 inches today.

As this front quickly moves over the panhandle, winds will
increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph. The
strongest gusts will be located over the northern panhandle near
Skagway. These strong winds will occur late this afternoon into
this evening with winds quickly diminishing afterward. An
exception to this is Lynn Canal that is likely to hold on to
slightly stronger winds near 25 kts into late tonight.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week
with multiple systems and a range of possibilities for snow. The
Haines and Klondike Highways remain the likeliest suspects for
accumulating snow at this time. Communities at sea level will be
harder pressed to see any accumulating snow due to the lack of any
cold continental airmass in the lower levels. However, snow mixing
in with rain cannot be ruled out with any heavier precipitation
bringing snow levels closer to the surface, as seen with recent
systems.

For Tuesday, a short wave trough will rotate through the gulf with
some model discrepancies on the strength of two associated lows.
One of these will likely track towards Cook Inlet and Prince
William Sound. The other one is expected to track towards the
panhandle, bringing more precipitation across the panhandle,
lingering over the panhandle Tuesday night. Storm totals are
expected to be lower for this system than the one earlier in the
week, with the upper elevations of the Haines and Klondike
Highways seeing another 1 to 2 inches of snow.

Moving to midweek, there is still some uncertainty over the track
of a gale force low moving into the southern gulf Wednesday. The
GEFs continues to have a midlevel ridge push slightly further
north along the gulf, which is driving the midweek system further
north along the panhandle, while both the Canadian and Euro
ensembles have this ridge being shallower and not steering the low
as far north. Therefore, there were not enough changes to warrant
deviation from the previous forecast in following the trend of
the grand ensemble. This still has the low weakening as it
approaches the panhandle between Dixon entrance and Baranof Island,
though still bringing moderate precipitation, primarily from
Frederick Sound southward. Any northward shift in the track of
this feature would lead to stronger winds pushing further north
along the inner channels as well as higher precipitation rates for
the central panhandle. Even so, the highest precipitation amounts
overall from this system would still be expected along the outer
coast of the southern panhandle with 0.75 to 1.5 inches in 24
hours for the far southern panhandle and outer coast, diminishing
to around 0.5 inches for the panhandle north of Frederick Sound.
Depending upon the northward jog of this low, the highways could
also see another small batch of snow.

Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday. This front is
expected to bring gale force winds to the gulf waters along with
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to a majority of the
panhandle. The heaviest precipitation is expected along outer
coastal communities, with 24 hour totals from Thursday afternoon
to Friday afternoon 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts
at higher elevations and westward facing slopes. For communities
in the inner channels, storm totals look to be closer to 0.75
inches to 1.5 inches. As with earlier in the week, a lack of a
significant cold continental airmass in the inner channels will
likely limit any snow potential for communities at sea level.
Haines and Skagway cannot be ruled out, especially higher
elevations of the Chilkat Peninsula. Also, the track of the low
on Wednesday into Thursday could serve to prime the northern inner
channels for snow if it induces a northerly gradient for long
enough. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the week progresses.

MARINE...
Inside Waters: A front moving into the panhandle today will increase
winds across the inner channels to southerly fresh to strong breezes
(17 to 27 kts). The strongest of these winds will occur right as the
front reaches the panhandle late this afternoon, and then begin to
diminish shortly after, through tonight. Lynn Canal will stay
stronger for longer with winds near 25 kts and near gale gusts into
late Monday night. By Tuesday morning, most areas across the inside
waters will see winds below 15 kts. Active weather continues
throughout the week with the next stronger system arriving midweek.

Outside Waters: A front continues to push across the gulf bringing
widespread strong breezes to near gale force winds of 23 to 33 kts.
A small area of winds near Capt St. Elias will increase to gale
force winds around 35 kts this morning. They are already seeing winds
around 30 kts with strong gale force wind gusts around 45 kts. Winds
diminish to fresh to strong breezes late this afternoon into this
evening after the front pushes inland. Southeasterly seas with this
front will build to 11 to 13 ft this morning with around an 8 second
period. Overnight Monday, westerly swell begins to dominate, with
significant heights remaining near 12 ft along our coast at a period
near 12 seconds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>034-053-641>644-
     651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB

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