325
FXAK67 PAJK 152229
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
229 PM AKDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Warm weather with relatively low humidities continue for today
  before more mild conditions Sunday.

- A pattern change looks to arrive Monday as rain chances return
  from north to south. Chances for wetting rains increase
  significantly for next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM... A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is
keeping the Panhandle warm and dry for your Saturday. Tonight,
the big forecast concern will be for aviation and mariners, as a
marine layer cloud deck moves into the area. The marine layer is
expected to bring low clouds to Yakutat, into Cross Sound and Icy
Strait corridor, Chatham Strait, and perhaps into Clarence Strait
as well.

Sunday, a warm front associated with a low pressure system will
approach the NE Gulf Coast. This will bring rain, some heavy at
times, to Yakutat and areas to the west. As a cold front approaches
with the system Monday, it will bring rain across the Panhandle, but
the system will weaken going into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM.../Through Friday/...

A couple of changes to the long term forecast going forward, but
still within the same flavor as yesterday`s forecast. Tuesday
looks increasingly like a less rainy day. With the cold air
advection building surface high pressure in the central gulf,
precipitation chances have been reduced down to just a chance for
the Icy Strait corridor, and almost removed entirely for the
southern half of the panhandle. Could also see some clearing in
the southern half of the panhandle as well from the ample dry air
aloft. Going into Wednesday, this ridge over the gulf quickly
breaks down, as rain chances increase again. Still expecting to
see mostly ridging for the southern panhandle, directing a
majority of the moisture towards the NE gulf coast and Icy Strait
corridor. This trend looks looks to continue towards the end of
the week, with a general active and wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR continues to dominate the Panhandle, with a
marine layer along the coast bringing LIFR to IFR FG. Confidence
has increased for the marine layer and fog to push further east
into the inner channels tonight, but likely holding west of
Sisters Island. As observed in Sitka, northwest flow along the
coast hitting Cape Edgecumbe will act like an eddy, with VFR
conditions persisting; however, just surrounding Sitka is the
potent IFR/LIFR marine layer. As westerly winds form late tonight
this layer will likely move over PASI.

For folks along and south of Frederick Sound, VFR is prevalent.
Primary threat this afternoon is thunderstorm development in
British Columbia, with storms likely stalling along the coast
range. However, there is a non-zero chance we could see a storm
sneak into the high terrain surrounding the Misty Fjords area.
As of 22z Saturday, building cumulus clouds over Prince of Wales
is something to watch as well. Westerly winds late Saturday night
will likely bring an IFR marine layer and/or fog to Prince of
Wales and Metlakatla. Will advertise this layer moving into
Ketchikan early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside:
Northwest winds continue to impact the coastal waters, with 18z
ASCAT passes reporting gentle to moderate breezes. Current sea
state is a combination of southwest seas, southerly swell, and
northwest wind chop; significant heights of 3 to 5ft and dominant
period near 8 to 10 seconds. These northwest winds persist,
although should not get much stronger than fresh breezes near and
downwind of prominent capes. Seas remain near or below 5 ft,
dominated by fresh seas of 8 to 10 seconds. With that said, there
is underlying southerly swell at 15 seconds so anticipate some
bigger breaking wave action along favorable reefs/breaks near the
coast. A commercial fishing vessel reported fog near Cape
Edgecumbe, with this threat likely along the coast through the
night.

Sunday a low lifts into the Gulf with an accompanying front, with
northwest winds beginning to break down, shifting to the
southeast. Current forecast favors building winds of strong
breezes along Cape St. Elias by Sunday evening, reaching gale
force in the early hours of Monday morning. Moving east to the
Fairweather Grounds, winds of strong breezes are forecasted, with
fresh to moderate winds as you move south toward Cape Edgecumbe
and Prince of Wales.

Our summertime mellow sea state gives way to fresh seas, building
to near 8 to 11 ft Monday, a warmup for whats to come later this
fall as we move into our storm season. Primary threat is for
smaller recreational boats operating along our coast.

Inside:
Late afternoon sea breezes of moderate to fresh breezes, and a low
marine layer, remain the primary hazard into Sunday afternoon.
Current forecast favors the highest winds of fresh breezes to
impact Cross Sound Saturday afternoon. Late Sunday into Monday
southerly winds build across the Inner Channels as a low moves
into the Gulf, bringing moderate to strong breezes to many
passages along and north of Frederick Sound; highest winds in Lynn
Canal. Mariners operating the upper arms of Glacier Bay will
likely see southeast winds of moderate to strong breezes quickly
shifting to the south. Reid Inlet comes to mind, where folks will
often find shelter from these southeast winds only to find
themselves exposed to strong southerly winds coming off the Brady
Icefield.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 6 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ319-321-328.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-642>644-651-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Musall
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...AP

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