116
FXAK67 PAJK 290551
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
951 PM AKDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the aviation section following the 06z TAF
issuance. Included extended long term section to the long term
discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM... / through Friday night / Not much change into
forecast, so dry and warm, with generally light winds. Southern
panhandle has parts reaching out to lower 80s for Prince of Wales,
Southern Inner Channels, and Misty Fjords. for the afternoons
into Friday.

The change will as an upper trough/surface feature that will be
dragging over the Northeast gulf and perhaps grazing northern
Glacier Bay and northern part of Lynn Canal. A low chance of rain
will sneak into the NE gulf corner with the main Panhandle it
could be more of a few sprinkles, if any rain does happen.

.LONG TERM...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures in the high 60s for the northern panhandle and
  mid 70s for the southern panhandle

A broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm through the end of the weekend
and early next week, prolonging the clear skies and warm
temperatures. Remnants of a front from interior Alaska reaches the
northern outer coast Friday and attempts to push into the
panhandle. This creates a small chance for light showers to reach
the northern interior panhandle late Friday night into early
Saturday morning, but with less upper level moisture support, this
will most likely just manifest as cloud cover. Light outflow
winds in the southern panhandle will increase Sunday afternoon
when the pressure gradient begins to tighten and funnel 15 to 20
kt sustained winds out of Clarence Strait. Icy Strait and Lynn
Canal will see stronger inflow winds due to sea breezing and a
tightening pressure gradient over northern Lynn. Skagway may
experience 10 to 15 kts of southerly winds during afternoons.
Westerly winds out of Icy Strait may stay slightly elevated after
the sun sets and get caught in the outflow winds going down
Chatham Strait.

850 mb temperatures aloft have cooled down for the weekend,
though they are still reaching 12 to 14 degrees C for some areas
of the southern panhandle. Temperatures are expected to reach the
mid to low 70s, with inland areas feeling the warmest as they are
not susceptible to sea breezes. The northern panhandle will see
high 60s through the weekend. This will increase again early next
week, with EFIs indicating high max temps peaking on Wednesday. An
upper level low looks to move up from the southeastern gulf
Wednesday afternoon before jumping into the central gulf. Models
have become more in line with the EC having the low move into the
central gulf and then jump onshore over the panhandle, though the
GFS still wants to hold off for a little longer. The associated
surface inflection could bring precipitation back to the panhandle
Friday.

EXTENDED: Looking at the Tuesday afternoon / Wednesday afternoon
time frame, increased the temperatures in southern panhandle,
Juneau, and Skagway. Recent NBM guidance suggests temperatures in
the mid to high 70s these days, particularly reaching the northern
panhandle Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures at or near 80 for
areas around Klawock, Hyder and Ketchikan. NBM 4.3 and NBM 5.0
guidance gives probabilities of between 60-70% chance of above 80
degrees for Juneau Tuesday, and a 50-70% chance of above 80
degrees for both Ketchikan and Klawock on Monday and Tuesday.
Something to watch going forward as alongside the NBM
probabilities, the EFI continues to also get more confident (over
0.90) with a SoT of 1 to 2 for Wed 00Z and Thurs 00Z.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Saturday/...VFR category flight conditions
are in store for most areas of the Panhandle with generally light
winds with afternoon sea breezes as we remain under a persistent
dominant ridge of high pressure through the period. The main
exceptions will be around the northeastern Gulf Coast region,
including PAYA, & through the western half of the Icy Strait
Corridor, including PAGS for marine layer influence, bringing
some low stratus clouds & some chances for FG. Those areas could
see conditions down to within the MVFR/IFR category range. PAYA
has a chance of some showers from a weakening system passing to
the northwest, moving up and over the aforementioned ridge of
high pressure. As for LLWS, it remains quite benign through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...Overall little in way of changes for this as well but
for area details...

Inner Channels: Local wind patterns from valley drainage winds at
night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are the main
forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach 15 kt in Icy
Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds and seas of 3
ft or less for most areas expected through late week. Exception:
Clarence Strait will see some increasing NW winds (up to 15 kt) as
the ridge starts to move W Thursday night.

Outside Waters: Ridge of high pressure planted firmly over the
eastern gulf means lighter winds and lower seas for most parts of
the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Highest winds and seas currently are W
of 140W but even then are only approaching 15kt and 3 to 4 ft
seas at the Cape Suckling and mid gulf buoys. Central and northern
gulf conditions are expected remain mostly the same through
tonight with S winds up to 20 kt and seas gradually building to 6
to 7 ft by late Thursday night though winds will start to lighten
and turn W into Friday as the ridge moves W. East of 140 W, mainly
will be seeing 10 kt or less of wind and seas of 5 ft or less into
late week. Exception: the near coastal areas S and E of Cape
Edgecombe will see NW wind increasing to 15 to 20 kt Thursday
night into Friday as the ridge axis shifts W.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Continued very warm temperatures over 70 degrees and
no rain are continuing to dry out the fine fuels. The dry weather is
expected to continue for an additional week so there is little
chance of rewetting the soils and fine fuels. Will be keeping an eye
on the situation, but lower resistance to any possible spreading of
fires is a minor concern.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT Friday for AKZ328-330>332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...ZTK/Contino
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...Bezenek
FIRE WEATHER...Bezenek

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