553
FXAK67 PAJK 171401
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
601 AM AKDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- A short wave moves over the panhandle today bringing clouds and
  light rain to the northern panhandle.
- Ridging continues behind the shortwave allowing for dry
  conditions to return for the weekend.

Details: Rain and low clouds have returned to Yakutat this morning
as a weak front and shortwave push into the panhandle. This short
wave is driven by an upper level low moving over the NE gulf. This
shortwave will continue to increase cloud cover this morning, mainly
for the northern panhandle. Light rain and drizzle is expected today
north of Frederick Sound. Rain totals remain low below 0.1 inch for
the entire panhandle.

Another ridge then builds over the gulf, moving into the panhandle,
Thursday afternoon into evening. This ridge will once again create
dry conditions across the panhandle into the weekend. Times of
lingering drizzle may continue into tonight due to onshore flow over
the far north.

Overall, no major changes were made to the previous forecast. High
temperatures remain in the mid 60s for the northern panhandle, and
high 60s to low 70s for the southern panhandle. Clearing skies in
the afternoon will once again allow for sea breeze development, with
the strongest of these winds near Skagway around 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...Stacked upper and surface high pressure situated over
the Gulf continues to last into the long range, continuing the
warming and drying trend into the weekend and early next week.
There will be some shortwaves attempting to move through Friday
into Saturday, bringing some chances for light rain along the
northeast Gulf coast, however the surface ridge will rebuild by
Sunday. This will bring a change to a warmer and drier pattern for
early next week, as skies will begin to clear Saturday into Sunday
and rain chances decrease for the majority of the panhandle by
this weekend. Alongside this ridging pattern, some significant 12
to 15 degree C temperatures at 850 mb will be advecting warmer
air into the region Monday and Tuesday and leading to some warmer
surface temperatures. This will be aided even further by the sky
clearing early next week, allowing for areas to get into the 70s
for maximum temperatures. Areas further inland and along the
northern panhandle (such as Skagway and Juneau) may see more of
this warm air advection, with the NBM showing a potential of
20-30% of getting to 80 degrees and EFIs pinging for the panhandle
Monday and Tuesday. Overall something to keep an eye on in the
extended range.

The skies clearing will continue to allow a stronger sea breeze to
develop in some of the inner channels, with winds increasing to 10
to 15 kts if a sea breeze develops. With the setup of the ridging
offshore and a low over B.C., we are also expecting some stronger
westerly winds along Icy Strait and other E-W oriented channels,
with the strongest winds expected during the afternoon. The outer
coastline is expected to continue to see a pattern to support a
marine layer developing, with both the stacked ridge and moisture
availability, so areas along the coastline and into the Icy Strait
Corridor area if pushed inwards by westerly winds may see some
marine layer formation Friday into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Small changes to the TAFS at the current time, with
the primary adjustments being to add detail on improving
conditions through the latter half of Thursday. A weak front
moving through the panhandle has is bringing with it brief periods
of light rain and drizzle to the northern half of the area, but
this will come to an end by the late afternoon. Some lower CIGS
are also present as a result, with some outer coastal communities
in low MVFR or even IFR ceilings, while other areas see mainly VFR
conditions. Expect these conditions along the outer coast to
improve by the afternoon hours, with CIGS rising significantly.
Some patches of fog in the northern panhandle may develop Thursday
night, lasting through early Friday morning with the
corresponding potential for low CIGS and VIS restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: As a ridge behind the weak front moves into the panhandle,
winds along the coast will once again increase to WNW 15 to 20 kts.
The strongest of these winds will be near Cape Decision and into
Dixon Entrance. Wave heights remain around 5 ft building to 6 to 7
ft, for a short time this afternoon, west of POW Island. Wave
heights will then begin to subside this evening with a 6 to 8
second wave period.

Inside: This morning, ahead of the next ridge, the inner channels
remain around 5 to 10 kts with isolated areas reaching 15 kts. Late
this morning the building ridge will increase the pressure gradient
first for the southern panhandle. This will increase winds mainly in
southern Clarence Strait and near Cape Decision to around 15 kts.
The ridge then approaches the N panhandle this afternoon, and a
tightening pressure gradient will allow winds across Cross Sound,
Icy Strait, and into Lynn Canal will increase to 15 kts with gusts
up to 20 ks. These stronger winds will diminish late Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....Contino
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAB

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