798
FXAK67 PAJK 140538
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
938 PM AKDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.UPDATE...Update to the Aviation section, to include the 06z TAF
issuance, and the Long Term forecast section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Mostly benign pattern with the continued upper level
low retrograding to the west through the short term period.
Moisture continues to stream in from British Columbia, wrapping
around the aforementioned upper level low. As the air descends, it
adiabatically warms, drying the air. This looks to sap much of the
moisture coming from the south, resulting in low chances for rain
across the southern panhandle, but not zero. However, likelihood
for rain will continue to decrease through the morning hours
tomorrow for the southern panhandle, but will continue for the
northern panhandle as moisture continues to stream in from the
east. Expecting low rainfall accumulations with the moisture
streaming in from the east, with mostly just clouds.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday into next weekend/...The overall trend next
week is looking like drier and warmer weather is on the way to SE
AK.

Key Messages:
-Lingering low in the gulf will keep rain and rain showers in the
 forecast early next week.
-Evidence is increasing that drier, sunnier, and much warmer temps
 are on the way for late next week.
-Highs in the upper 60s to 70s around the area are likely.
-Wind speeds look to be on the lighter side late in the week.


Details:
A stationary closed low at 500mb, just off the coast of Haida
Gwaii, will continue to persist and give SE AK chances for rain.
This feature will regain some energy from fujiwhara interaction
with another system that will consolidate and strengthen the low,
which will send a new front into the southern panhandle by Monday.
By and large, we expect winds to remain near moderate to fresh
breezes near southern Clarence Strait with much lighter winds
everywhere else. Along with freshening up of the winds in the
south, expect some moisture to move into the area Monday, bringing
light rain and clouds to the panhandle. Expect cloudy and wet
conditions into Wednesday before a pattern change brings a ridge
of high pressure into the gulf.

As this ridge builds, warm temperatures will move into the region
for later in the week and the weekend. Dry conditions with
temperatures making it into the upper 60s to 70s will be found
across the region.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle this
evening. The only place that really has any concerns for ceilings
due to rain is across the extreme northern inner channels and NE
gulf coast where a deformation band is continuing to bring cloud
cover (with some ceilings down to 1500 ft near Yakutat at times) and
some on and off light rain showers. That band of clouds and
showers should diminish and move off to the west by tomorrow
afternoon. Then generally VFR conditions before more rainfall
starts to move into the southern panhandle late Sunday night.



&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Main story is the weak closed low bringing fresh breezes
to the coast of Prince of Wales Island, which will continue
through Saturday night. One chance to the forecast is the lighter
winds along the NE gulf coast with higher confidence that low
clouds will descend to the surface as widespread fog. Expect these
conditions to last through the morning hours.

Inside: Moderate Breezes in Clarence Strait will diminish into the
evening hours with the weakening surface low off the coast of
Prince of Wales Island. Otherwise mostly light winds through
Saturday night. Not expecting much fog for the inner channels due
to slight warm air advection, resulting in a low cloud deck rather
than surface fog.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....AP/GJS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...NC

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