726
FXAK67 PAJK 161920 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1120 AM AKDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...Morning Update and 18z Aviation Discussion...

Minor changes to the ongoing forecast this morning as dry
conditions and mostly sunny skies persist over the area. Adjusted
sky coverage and marine winds upwards for Cross Sound, Icy
Strait, Stephens Passage, and Clarence Strait through this
afternoon, around 15 to 20kts as east to west gradient tightens
under the surface ridge. Otherwise, anticipating dry conditions to
continue with high temperatures to reach into the high 60s to low
70s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
- A ridge over the gulf is allowing for dry conditions to continue
  with partly cloudy skies.
- A short wave moves over the panhandle late Wednesday into Thursday
  bringing clouds and light rain to the northern panhandle.
- High temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s expected today with
  up to 80 degrees near Hyder.

Details: A ridge remains over the gulf allowing for mostly dry
conditions throughout the day. The southern panhandle will remain
dry, with clearing skies, allowing for increasing temperatures
into the low 70s. Interior areas, near Hyder, are expected to
reach 80 degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for Hyder due to
these warmer than normal temperatures.

This morning, the northern panhandle will see times of mostly cloudy
skies due to onshore flow that is bringing moisture to the mid
levels. As the ridge continues to move closer to the panhandle,
skies will clear for the northern panhandle. These clearing skies
will in turn lead to afternoon sea breeze development. Affected
areas will see winds increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20
kts.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the ridge moves into the panhandle
allowing for a shortwave to move over the panhandle ahead of the
next ridge. This shortwave will bring light precipitation to the far
northern panhandle. Little to no rain accumulation is expected as
the shortwave is quickly followed by another ridge.


.LONG TERM.../ Thursday to Sunday night /
Overall high pressure over eastern Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska
continues through the weekend, with ridge flattened Friday to
Sunday. Ridge begins to rebuild on Sunday but not enough impact
southeast until the Day 7 and 8 periods. Light rain for the
northeast gulf Coast with accumulations less than a tenth of an
inch and then that falling off to trace or less.

Continued onshore/along shore for the Northeast Gulf Coast and
panhandle through the weekend so clouds may stack near the coastal
zone there. Will need to watch if marine layer stays anchored
along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18z Thursday/

Upper end MVFR to widespread VFR flight conditions across the
panhandle this afternoon. Worst flight conditions over the next
few hours will remain along the coast as marine layer retreats
with CIGS AoA 2000ft. By Wednesday night, a weak front approaches
the panhandle bringing with more midlevel cloud cover and the
chance for some drizzle for a few locations along the NE Gulf
Coast and the northern half of the panhandle. Most locations will
stay VFR during Wednesday night, barring the possibility of
somewhat lower ceilings AoB 2500ft along a few outer coast
locations like Sitka, Yakutat, and Gustavus.

Winds should remain around 15kts or less through the afternoon
for much of the panhandle, decreasing to 5kts or less overnight
and variable, outside of Sitka and Skagway which will see
elevated sustained winds 15 to 20kts with sporadic gusts up to 25
kts. LLWs not a major concern through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: As the ridge continues to tighten and the
ridge axis moves into the central gulf, northwesterly winds along
the central to southern coast will continue to increase to NW
moderate to strong breezes of 20 to 25 kts Tuesday evening. Along
with strong breezes, times of near gale to gale force wind gusts
have a chance of occurring Tuesday evening and night near the
southern coast from Cape Decision down to Dixon Entrance. Wave
heights build to 6 to 8 ft, with the largest seas west of Prince
of Wales Island and near Dixon Entrance. These increased winds and
waves are expected into Wednesday evening before the ridge begins
to slightly weaken.

Inside: Mainly light to gentle breezes of 5 to 10 kts persist across
the inner channels. An upper level trough brought cloud cover and
even some drizzle to the northern panhandle which put a damper on
any significant sea breeze development this afternoon. The lone
exception is in the north at Skagway, due to thermal troughing
over the interior, which is seeing southerly winds of 15 to 20 kt
in the area of Taiya Inlet. These and other sea breezes in areas
that dodged cloud cover today will show up once more on Wednesday
with similar strength. Along Clarence Strait, Northwest winds will
increase to 15 to 20 kts through the period with the tightening
ridge. These winds across Clarence Strait will remain elevated
through Wednesday, beginning to diminish Wednesday evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ331.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661.

&&

$$
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB

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