823
FXAK67 PAJK 052055 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1155 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2026

.UPDATE...We continue to see gale to storm force conditions over
the eastern GulfAK and coastal waters, with impacts to aviation
also being noted across the central and southhern Panhandle this
morning. The High Wind Warning was expanded to include Baranof
Island and Sitka this morning into tonight as the zone of higher
winds moves gradually north ahead of the approaching front.


&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...9 AM THU to 9 AM FRI.
The strong storm force low with gusts to around 55 knots over the
GulfAK late this morning continues moving slowly north. To the
east of this low is a frontal boundary moving into SEAK from
British Columbia and the eastern Gulf...with lowering ceilings
MVFR periodic IFR in rain with gradient wind gusts increasing to
east/southeasterly at 30 to 40 kt. Low level wind shear expected
south of a Sitka to Petersburg line this afternoon from the SE at
50 kt will slowly work north with the front through evening. Lots
of reports of low level turbulence and wind shear coming in from
area pilots across the central and southern Panhandle today. Those
reports are always much appreciated here on the aviation desk.
Generally MVFR with periodic IFR will work north into the northern
Panhandle through the overnight period as the low center starts
to turn more north then northwest over the GulfAK. 05/Garmon

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 639 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2026.

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - The active pattern continues into the weekend as multiple
   fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of moderate to
   heavy rainfall and strong winds.

 - Storm force winds expected in the SE Gulf and Clarance Strait
   today. Gusts to 60 mph likely in the southern panhandle as
   well.

 - Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow
   for the Haines Highway, and 3 to 5 inches through Thursday
   night near White Pass.

SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Morning satellite imagery is
showing the strong system that will be impacting the panhandle
today starting to move up into the area. Low center as of 4 am is
at around 50N 145W with the outer bands of its front already
reaching Haida Gwaii and the far SE gulf. Lightning detection has
also seeing some lightning near the core of the system this
morning. The forecast for today mostly remains unchanged from
yesterday with the front moving into the panhandle today bringing
rain and wind. High Wind Warnings remain up for the southern
panhandle and storm warnings remain up for the SE gulf and
Clarance Strait.

Most of the changes in the forecast involve the SW winds on the S
side of the system that will affect the panhandle late Thursday
into Friday. First the wind advisory for Sitka has been extended
into Friday morning as in addition to the gusty SE winds on
Thursday there will be another period of gusty SW winds late
Thursday into Friday morning. Second, the northern inner channels
will see a distinct increase in winds late Thursday night or
Friday morning. N Lynn Canal and Skagway in particular could see
min gale force winds to 35 kt starting early Friday morning. Winds
will persist in the north through Friday before starting to
diminish. Southern panhandle will see their winds diminish Friday.

Few changes in the precip forecast as this system is more focused
on wind then rain. Total rainfall looks to be around 1 to 2.5
inches for most areas (Yakutat may only see around a half inch)
through Friday. Only area that will likely see snow are the higher
elevations of the Klondike Highway. Moisture looks to have a
somewhat difficult time getting up there though so snow
accumulations look to be around 3 inches in any 12 hour period
there. Some instability also noted behind the main front near the
core of the system this morning so decided to include mention of
slight chance of lightning today for the SE gulf and southern
outer coast.

LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Wednesday /  Sunday is looking like it
may be the break day for weather for SEAK, as incoming low/short
wave will undercut the panhandle moving over the Haida Gwaii and
British Columbia coastal area as it landfalls Sunday. Southern
portion of the panhandle may get some rain out of the associated
rain shield. THe northern panhandle and Northeast gulf coast
region would be a drier off short pattern briefly. Also not a big
gradient so winds should be a bit more relaxed.

The model solutions for Monday have an agreement that a low will
move from the Pacific into the eastern-central gulf  with a roughly
a 960-965 low into the gulf Monday morning. the track of this one
looks similar to the Thursday system. Will expect quite strong winds
for marine zones  probably up to Storm force.  The Southwest islands
of the panhandle  may end up with public hazards as well for Monday.
Stay tuned for updates to the situation.

AVIATION.../Through 12Z Friday/...Conditions across the panhandle
are primarily VFR ahead of a strong front making its way toward
the panhandle. Rain is anticipated to reach southern and central
coastal sites by 15-17Z this morning and reach interior and
northern locations by 18-22Z. CIGS are expected to remain mainly
low end VFR to high end MVFR as the front moves through. However,
shortly after the onset of rain, visibilities are likely to
plummet as low as 3-4SM. Rain is likely to be heavy at times which
is what will drop visibilities so low. Gusty southeasterly winds
are also associate with this front, with locations across the
southern panhandle likely to see wind gusts up to 50-55kt. The
northern panhandle could see gusts up to 40-45kts. Wind shear has
been forecasted across the southern panhandle, but is anticipated
to be marginal at PAJN and PAGS, so it was not included in the TAF
forecast. High winds are anticipated to peak Thursday morning to
afternoon before diminishing slightly. Another push of strong
winds is expected at the end of the 12Z TAF period as a secondary
shortwave moves across the panhandle and will bring winds similar
to the initial front passage.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):Very active gulf of Alaska for
the next 24 hours as a gale force storm system moves through from
N to S through the central gulf. The associated front will be
moving through today with a brief area of storm force winds likely
just W of Prince of Wales and Baranof Islands around midday, but
it will mostly be SE gale force winds across the gulf waters.
Another area of gale force winds will show up toward Thursday
night into Friday on the south side of the low this time blowing
from the S or SW. All of these features will traverse the gulf
from S to N with the low eventually ending up in the northern gulf
near Cape Suckling by Friday afternoon. Seas will also be on the
increase as well. Seas are mostly 8 to 13 ft currently but with
the high winds moving in they will be building to 20 to 30 ft by
this afternoon or tonight mainly in the SE gulf. Seas are expected
to start subsiding again Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Inside (Inner Channels):Central and southern inner channels are
looking to be very active today with storm force winds expected in
Clarence Strait and gale force winds for most of these other
channels. Highest winds will be today with a gradual diminishing
trend expected late tonight into Friday. Northern inner channels
will see an increase in winds starting late Thursday night into
Friday as an increase in southerly pressure gradient and second
wrap winds move into the area. N Lynn will likely reach min gale
force Friday morning before diminishing Friday night. Yakutat Bay
will largely stay out of most of the higher winds though they may
see some 20 to 25 kt E winds Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323-328-
     330-332.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ325>327-329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>035-643-644-651-652-663-664-
     671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...EAL

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