393
FXAK67 PAJK 040026
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKST Tue Nov 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- The wet and active pattern continues through the week as
  multiple fronts push into the panhandle, bringing periods of
  moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Maritime interests should remain aware of multiple Gale to Storm
  force fronts across the Gulf and along the coast on Tuesday,
  Thursday, and into the weekend.

- Light snow possible along northern highways. Little to no snow
  for the Haines Highway, with 3 to 5 inches through Tuesday
  night near White Pass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The center of the low driving today`s front continues to move north,
but will soon begin to weaken as it moves onshore in south central
AK. The front will soon move through the panhandle, allowing winds
and precipitation to reduce in intensity overnight and into
Wednesday morning. Inland towards the southern Klondike highway,
rain will transition to snow tonight as temperatures fall, allowing
4-5" of snow to potentially impact the highway near the Canadian
border. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect to message this risk.

Wednesday will be the calmest day in the forecast, though a
shortwave moving north out of Haida Gwaii ought to keep rain in the
forecast for much of the panhandle. A much stronger low in the Gulf
will be on the way for Thursday, prompting another front with storm
force winds and strong winds over land as well. See the marine
section for more details regarding the wind forecast. Some moderate
rain will accompany this system, though at this juncture hydro
concerns are limited. Some more snow could be on the table for the
southern Klondike again.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday to Monday/...Models are in fair agreement
that a short wave moving around the general large scale low over
the eastern Bering and SW Mainland of Alaska (the Delta regions).
As the short wave rotates into the far Western Gulf that spin up
a frontal band Thursday morning. A move developed low surface low
looks to curl into the gulf from the North Central pacific with a
strong near 970 mb low Thursday morning. As the low and its
associated frontal band lifts towards the Northeast gulf coast and
panhandle. With the latest set of data, increased the speeds that
there looks to be a small section of Storm force over the NE Gulf
but this would be for midday Thursday.

Panhandle stays in the wet side of the forecast with the front
pushing through, and wrap around the low pushes into the panhandle
of Friday. Longer range solutions are hinting at yet another low
pulling NE out of the Pacific to the panhandle late Friday and
Saturday, though the position of the rain focus and the timing are
in need of fine tuning through the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 00Z Thursday/...Conditions continue to vary
across the panhandle Tuesday afternoon as VFR to high end MVFR
CIGs prevail across most sites with a front on our doorstep. Across
the panhandle, conditions are expected to generally deteriorate
by this evening and continue overnight as the front pushes inland.
Winds will soon be picking up in earnest across coastal sites,
spreading inland over the coming hours along with lowering CIGs
and light to moderate rain. Periods of VIS dropping to 3-4SM with
heavy rain are most likely to be seen in the southern panhandle. LLWS
is also ongoing or expected to begin shortly at southern coastal
TAF sites and begin at interior southern TAF sites between 2-6Z.
LLWS will likely last through early Wednesday morning at interior
locations. Behind the front, a transition to showers and some
improvement is expected later in the day Wednesday before another
wave moves up from the south.

&&

.MARINE...Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters):
A strong low over will continue moving NW towards Kodiak Island,
the associated frontal system will arcs across the northern and
eastern portions of the Gulf. Winds associated with the front will
ease over the entire Gulf, with the greatest amount of improving
conditions occurring in the northern Gulf where the current storm
force winds will ease to SCA by Wednesday morning. Combined seas
will ease alongside the winds with 12-15 feet expected across the
Gulf by morning. A brief break in weather will occur Wednesday
before the next significant system moves into area waters
Thursday. Model guidance is showing this low headed more for the
Central Panhandle before turning northward. As a result the
highest winds and seas will start over the waters south of Sitka.
Current guidance is showing the potential for storm force winds to
begin Thursday morning and will move N/NW throughout the day.
Looking ahead into more of the extended period, a similar pattern
will play out after Thursday with a brief break before another
storm system moves into the area from the south.

Inside Waters:
Generalized southeast winds will slowly ease through
the rest of tonight as a front moves through the area. With Clarence
Strait holding onto Gales through later Wednesday morning. The rest
of the inner channels will see their SCA drop early Wednesday
morning. The next system that will begin impacting the inner waters
by mid morning Thursday with high end storm force gusts expected for
Clarence Strait. Subsequently Gales are expected for the inner
waters south of Juneau. Conditions will slowly ease later Thursday
and into Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST
     Wednesday for AKZ318.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ328.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-642>644-651-661>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053-641.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Butwin

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