832
FXAK67 PAJK 190621 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1021 PM AKDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.EVENING AND AVIATION UPDATE...
No changes to ongoing forecast this evening. Light rain will
overspread the northern panhandle through tonight and into
tomorrow afternoon, primarily along and north of Baranof Island to
the Icy Strait Corridor and east to Juneau. Still expecting a
drizzle to light rain with around 0.2" or less of rainfall
expected through Wednesday evening. Low temperatures tonight drop
into the upper 40s to low 50s, with pockets of mid 50s across the
southern panhandle.

.AVIATION.../through 06z Thursday/
General VFR to MVFR flight conditions ongoing across the panhandle
this evening with CIGS AoB 5000ft, no real vsby limitations
within the last few hours. Overnight, expecting flight trends to
remain generally the same with MVFR to low-end VFR, albeit a more
widespread decrease in CIGS AoB 4000ft as more widespread rain
coverage develops overnight along and north of a line from Sitka
to Kake to Petersburg. Not expecting significant vsby limitations
at this time, generally 3 to 6SM within rain, drizzle or mist,
but can`t rule out intermittent periods of IFR visbys down to 2SM
along the coast. Moving into Wednesday afternoon, front will
continue to trek eastward across the panhandle, losing steam as
it deteriorates with rain chances decrease across the S
panhandle and improving conditions to VFR across the northern
terminals. Although rain diminishes through Wednesday evening
across the panhandle, will still see resultant return and
continuation of MVFR to VFR flight conditions into Wednesday
evening.

Sustained winds across the panhandle generally remain around
10kts or less through Wednesday across the SEAK terminals, with
some isolated gusts up to 20kts through the afternoon. Strongest
winds remain at the usual suspects of Haines and Skagway, with
sustained winds 10 to 20kts and gusts up to 30kts. No significant
LLWS concerns through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 351 PM AKDT Mon Aug 17 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- More seasonable temperatures will prevail through the end of the
  week with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, especially
  across the north, as multiple systems traverse the region.

- Increasing winds and building seas are expected over the Gulf
  waters late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday Night/...
Plenty of clouds remain in place across the region this afternoon
under a light onshore flow. While organized precipitation has
come to an end, there are still a few areas of drizzle and light
rain. Weak high pressure is attempting to push into the southern
panhandle and will bring a few more breaks in the clouds and
perhaps some robust intervals of sun to these areas through this
evening. Patchy fog is again expected to form tonight, especially
in sheltered locales that experience some clearing this evening.

A weak disturbance aloft will approach the northern panhandle by
Wednesday morning and enhance the onshore flow. This will also
result in at least a chance of light rain for much of the area,
but persistent, heavier precipitation is not expected through the
day. Meanwhile, more significant low pressure and an associated
frontal system will approach the central Gulf by Wednesday
evening. South-southwesterly flow increases ahead of this feature.
A steadier rain will also overtake the northeast Gulf Coast and
then slowly spread into the northern panhandle by late Wednesday
night. On Thursday, some of this rain will slowly ease southeast
into the central panhandle as the front draws a little closer to
the coast. This trend likely persists into early Friday, but most
of the activity still appears to stay north of Frederick Sound
through this period. For more details on the Friday and beyond
forecast, please see the long term discussion below.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will range from the
upper 50s to low 60s across the northeast Gulf Coast, and mainly
in the mid 60s to lower 70s in the southern panhandle, locally
warmer well inland.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
Active weather will continue into the long term forecast as
multiple systems move into the Gulf of Alaska. At the end the work
week, a weak short wave moves into the panhandle, as the ridge to
the southwest of the area weakens. The will bring light to
moderate rain to the northern panhandle Friday, spreading into the
southern panhandle by Saturday morning. A stronger low pressure
system will then move into southeast into the gulf Saturday into
Sunday. There is still some differences on where the location of
this low will be over the gulf. If it is farther offshore, rain
amounts will be lower and less heavy. If the low moves slightly
closer to the panhandle, overall rain amounts will be slightly
more, especially for the southern panhandle. Many of the solutions
do not bring super strong gulf winds, with wind speeds remaining
around 20 to 30 kts Sunday. Confidence and model agreement greatly
decreases after the Sunday system, but the overall pattern of
onshore flow looks the most likely to continue.

Temperatures through the long term period remain near average with
high temperatures in the mid to high 60s. There are indications that
areas near Hyder will see temperatures into the mid to high 70s on
Friday. Other southern areas could also see some warmer temperatures
Friday as well, but not as warm as Hyder. The main indicators of
this is continued dry weather along with 850 temperatures between 12
to 15 C. The limiting factor will be the amount of cloud cover that
they receive as the low pressure system moves into the gulf bringing
more moisture into the area.&&

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: An incoming front overnight will transition the current
westerly 10 to 15 knot winds to south to southeasterly from south
to north. As the front approach the coastline, a barrier jet style
effect will increase wind speeds to around 20 knots, and further
to around 25 knots as the front moves near the northern gulf
coast. Expect to see, behind the front, a somewhat sharper
transition to southwesterlies at 15 knots before winds decrease.
One point of interest is to the west of Cape Spencer, where a
convergence point may bring winds above 25 knots near 46083. Wave
heights are expected to behave and largely be below 6 ft, with the
exception of east of Cape St Elias, where seas are likely to be
between 6 and 8 ft with highest winds.

Inside: The incoming front will begin to impact the panhandle
during the mid morning timeframe of Wednesday, gradually
increasing winds to up to 15 knots. Not expecting a bulk of the
energy to make it past the initial mountains to the panhandle,
due to a sharp ridge axis set up over the panhandle. Therefore,
went with a lower magnitude solution for much of the panhandle,
although local areas exposed to easterly winds, such as the
backside of Douglas, Icy Strait, and Cross Sound, may reach wind
speed of 20 knots from gap flow and terrain effects. Expecting to
see the wind threat largely fall off by the evening timeframe of
Wednesday, with the possibility of some patchy fog overnight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC

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