968
FXAK67 PAJK 010611
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1011 PM AKDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06z aviation section...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
The panhandle remains largely dry and warm through the holiday
weekend and will continue to do so to start the week thanks to
persistent high pressure over the gulf. The one exception to this
otherwise benign pattern is marine stratus that formed over far
southern Clarence Strait and into Hecate Strait. While increasing
northerly winds Sunday night should scour out a decent amount of
it along the main channel, an eddy is expected to form east of
Annette and Duke Island, allowing for this stratus to accumulate
and rebound northward once more into SE Clarence and up into Misty
Fjords. Some of this low stratus, potentially low enough to
impact surface visibilities reaching Ketchikan and Metlakatla,
cannot be ruled out for Monday morning. Some isolated fog forming
and filtering down from interior valleys is also likely, with
highest confidence for Klawock. Similar to Sunday morning, the fog
and marine layer should diminish quickly with daytime heating.

Primary message to start the week is warming temperatures Monday
and continuing into Tuesday with highs reaching the mid to upper
70s Monday and isolated inland areas potentially reaching up to
80. Sea breeze circulations will be the dominant driver of winds
in the inner channels through the afternoon and evening hours
Sunday and Monday, though Clarence Strait will see pressure driven
sustained northerly winds due to thermal troughing extending into
Hecate Strait. For more information on this warming trend and the
heat advisory that was issued for parts of the southern
panhandle, see the long range discussion below.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday into the weekend/...

Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues the warm, dry weather.
- Temperatures will be above normal through most of the week.
- Low rain chances (20-40%) return late this week and last into the
  weekend.

Details:

Little changes to the inherited forecast for the upcoming week. The
broad upper level ridge and resilient surface level high will keep
the panhandle dry and warm, prolonging the clear skies and above
normal temperatures.

Max temperatures in the panhandle are expected to reach well into
the 70s up to around 80 on Tuesday and potentially Wednesday. Inland
areas will be the warmest as they won`t be impacted by sea breezes.
Confidence is high for well above normal temps with forecasted 850
mb temperatures aloft around 16 to 20 degrees Celsius with the
southern panhandle at the higher end of that range. When 850mb temps
get that warm, temps in the 70s are likely.

The second half of the weekend looks like a potential pattern
change. The high pressure looks to break down as a low pressure
approaches. The will bring increasing clouds Thursday with low
chances (20 to 40%) for rain Thursday night for Yakutat. Friday,
these low chances for rain spread into the rest of the panhandle.
These low rain chances last into the weekend. When these rain
chances actually move in will be highly dependent on when the high
pressure breaks down. If the ridge looks like it will linger,
then these rain chances will be delayed. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Tuesday/...For the most part, the Panhandle
will keep seeing VFR conditions through the period as we remain
under the influence of a persistent ridge of high pressure. Here`s
where the exceptions come in. We are under a dirty ridge. So, the
Outer Coast TAF sites may see some reduced CIGs & VISs down to
within the MVFR/IFR category range tonight as a marine layer
moves in generally from the southwest. PAYA will be affected the
longest as it is already closest to them. As you move
southeastward along the Outer Coast, areas such as PASI & PAKW,
respectively, will be affected less time before the marine layer
begins to try to erode, once again, during the day Monday. As for
winds, they are anticipated to be generally light, except for
some enhanced afternoon sea breeze winds. LLWS values remain
benign through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Inner Channels: Local wind patterns from valley drainage winds at
night and sea breezes in the afternoons and evenings are still
the main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes could reach up to 20
kt in Icy Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise lighter winds and
seas of 3 ft or less are expected into early next week. An
exception to this is Clarence Strait where NW winds of 15 kt are
expected to continue blowing, and ocean entrances where any NW or
W exposures will allow stronger NW winds up to 20 kt from the near
coastal water of the gulf to invade.

Outside Waters: The area of high pressure in the central gulf
will be rather persistent and is expected to last into the coming
week. Increased NW winds in the near coastal waters of the eastern
gulf have been observed and are expected to continue as pressure
gradients strengthen between the gulf high and the thermal low in
British Columbia. Currently seeing winds up to 20 kt gusting to 25
kt from Cape Fairweather southeastward and seas of around 5 to 8
ft (with a 3 ft swell from the W at around 10 sec). Highest seas
will be west of Dixon Entrance and off of Haida Gwaii. Winds are
likely to increase through Sunday night from Cape Ommaney
southward as the gulf high strengthens and will persist into
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will keep much of the panhandle dry through the
holiday weekend and through the middle of the upcoming week. Low
risk for fire weather concerns remain, but fine fuels are being
watched. Lowest inland relative humidity expected around 30 to 50%
each afternoon where skies are clear mainly for early next week.
Warm temperatures expected through mid next week but somewhat
cooler for this weekend compared to this past Thursday and Friday
(60s and low 70s for highs expected) before another warm period
expected (70s or higher for highs) for the first half of next
week. Winds remain low except for localized sea breezes up to 15
kt in the afternoons.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM AKDT Tuesday for AKZ319-325-328-
     330-332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-661-662-664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...GJS
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...STJ

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