685
FXAK67 PAJK 171307
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
507 AM AKDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Marine layer low clouds continue to dominate the
forecast for most of the panhandle today. This morning those
clouds have invaded the inner channels to the northern end of
Chatham Strait through Icy Strait and covered most of the
southern inner channels south of Frederick Sound. Those clouds
should retreat through the morning to mostly plague western Icy
Strait to Gustavus, Cross Sound, Yakutat, Western Baranof and
Western POW Islands. Though there could be some patches of clouds
that stick around through the day farther inland. The low clouds
are expected to return tonight and will likely cover a larger area
than what they did overnight (likely getting to Angoon and Juneau
this time).

Daytime temperatures are again going to be mainly influenced by
how much cloud cover an area has. Northern inner channels will
likely be the warmest again today reaching into the 70s again with
the clearer skies. Southern inner channels and especially the
outer coast will see cooler day time highs (60s and possibly upper
50s in some areas) due to cloud cover part of or all day.

Winds along the cloud cover edge could get a little frisky tonight
in the north as well. Icy Strait got west winds up to 30 kt
overnight due to the strong temperature gradient between the
cooler outer coast and the warmer northern inner channels.
Thinking that the same thing might happen again this evening so a
Small craft advisory for Icy Strait is out for this evening.
Otherwise winds for most areas are 20 kt or less.

.LONG TERM...Summer continues across SE Alaska through the first
half of the week, though more active weather is on the horizon.
Get out and enjoy it while you can.

A ridge will continue to hover over SE AK through Wednesday, with
the axis slowly moving E over the Gulf and across the area. Dry,
with afternoon sea breezes in the inner channels is the main theme
over the next few days. By Thursday, a weak wave will attempt to
advance through the ridge, bringing with it chances of rain,
though operational guidance is likely overemphasizing PoP chances
with this system. Anticipate fairly minimal QPF totals and wind
impacts, if the system isn`t largely eroded away by the ridge
itself. By the end of the week, an extension of a closed low over
the Aleutians attempts to form into a longwave trough and move
into the Gulf, bringing some onshore flow, cooler temperatures,
and increasing PoPs through the weekend. Think that there is a
good chance that much of the energy will move S of the panhandle,
but still anticipate at least some chances of rain for the area.
Afterwards, some clearing is increasingly likely for the latter
half of Sunday or Monday, though this is not set in stone, with
the GEPS being more pessimistic.

Threats to coastal and gulf waters remain low through Thursday,
with our swells significant deep ocean wave heights remaining
largely under 8ft. With that said, stout 15 to 20 knot northwest
winds along the coast will bring short period wind driven waves to
the west coast of Prince of Wales and into Dixon Entrance.

&&

.AVIATION...Marine layer has continued to spread this morning across
the panhandle with more locations reporting MVFR down to IFR and
some isolated LIFR conditions as compared to yesterday at this
time. These conditions are expected to continue through the
morning with places through the Inner channels seeing some
reprieve during the daytime hours. These conditions are expected
to return this evening though as the layer redevelops. Along the
outer coast, very little in the way of improvement was noted
yesterday. Current thinking is that today will be very similar to
yesterday. For areas that do stay out of the marine layer, sea
breezes are expected to return mid morning today and should
persist with the heating of the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flood advisory continues for the Chilkat River due to
snowmelt. The river did briefly drop below minor flood stage last
evening, but has since risen above it again. The Chilkat is
expected to continue to fluctuate up and down on a daily pattern
through the next few days with the river staying above minor flood
stage for most of that time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...SF

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