481
FXAK67 PAJK 200700
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1100 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.UPDATE...

Aviation discussion updated for 06Z. Amendments not scheduled due
to a technical issue.

Areas of forecasted thunderstorms were adjusted northward to
address the northward track of inconsistent lightning storms
approaching Icy and Yakutat Bays.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

- Multiple systems to impact the region through the weekend, with heavy
  rain, gusty winds and increasing seas.

- A Flood Watch was issued for the northern panhandle due to heavy
  rain and ice melt occurring through the weekend.

- Wind advisories are up for many areas of the panhandle for gusts
  of 40 to 55 mph.

- Cooler but seasonable temperatures for the period, with daytime
  highs generally in the 50s.

SHORT TERM...The next low pressure that will move into the area this
evening is moving north this afternoon with the front already spread
across the Gulf of Alaska. This front will approach the area this
afternoon and evening bringing an increase to winds for the
panhandle with a lot of places expected to see winds gusting 40-50
mph starting this evening and going through tomorrow. The southern
panhandle will see winds increasing first with wind gusts peaking
tonight into the overnight hours before diminishing in the morning
hours tomorrow. Farther north, winds are expected to increase during
this evening as well with the strongest winds expected to start
around 8-10pm and will persist into the afternoon hours tomorrow
before starting to diminish tomorrow evening.

Besides the strong winds, heavy rain will move into the area at the
same time and most places should see rain amounts of 2-5 inches of
rain for the storm total. The heaviest rain is expected to start
this evening and persist into the morning hours. After the front
supporting this wind moves through the area, the chances for
convective showers and thunderstorms increases. These showers could
bring periods of heavier rain and gusty winds. Left the threat of
thunderstorms in due to the potential for convection over the Gulf
with the low persisting around the area for the next few days. The
next brief break looks to be Monday evening into Tuesday as we see a
gap between the system that is currently affecting the area and the
next one that moves in for the middle of the week.

.LONG TERM....../Tuesday through Friday/...An active pattern continues
into the beginning of the week as a low redevelops in the central
Gulf, continuing to bring waves of precipitation with showery
onshore flow between them lasting through midweek. The low appears
to redevelop around 140W early Tuesday morning, looking notably less
strong than the current system in the Gulf that impacted the area
this weekend. It is expected to bring another more organized wave of
precipitation northward across the panhandle during the day Tuesday,
followed by a few less organized and showery waves Wednesday into
Thursday. This midweek low looks to be a bit more aligned today
between models on the main precipitation band moving through
Tuesday, with all of them appearing to shift the low and front
southward a bit compared to yesterday. Expecting much of the
rainfall Tuesday to impact the southern panhandle at this time, with
some areas around Ketchikan and Metlakatla seeing potential for up
to 1 to 1.5 inches in 24 hours as the main band moves through. Some
uncertainty still remains on timing and rainfall amounts, especially
due to the more showery regime expected midweek and the spread on
the low`s track/location especially moving into Wednesday. Some
guidance shows the low remaining further west, while some have it
moving in towards the panhandle with the low center sitting east of
140W during the day Tuesday. This will also bring some lower
confidence in some of the marine winds, depending on how far
offshore or how close to the panhandle the main low center ends up
moving to.

AVIATION...

MVFR and IFR flight conditions are ongoing, and will persist over
the next 24 hour TAF period. The strongest system we expect this
weekend is moving  north and we are seeing the impacts to the wind
forecast evolve in real time. For TAF sites located more inland,
winds are gusting well out of the south or southeast. Further
towards the coast, expect a shift and increase in winds, as the low
repositions itself closer to us and northwest of its current
location, gusts have the potential to hit 40kt. PAYA will remain
largely easterly. Due to the winds and incoming fropa, there is
shear potential at most TAF sites. Rain will be a constant over the
next 24 hours.


There has also been some thunder cropping up offshore, mostly
between Cape Spencer and Icy Bay. A few strikes were within the
vicinity of PAYA, and another cell is moving just on shore at Icy
Bay. VCTS is being carried at PAYA.

A nationwide issue is causing an issue with our computer systems
receiving any METARs, so amendments are not scheduled with the 06Z
TAFs. Technicians are working to address the issue, so once it is
resolved amendments will resume.

MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the inner channels have
started to see increases in wind speeds again this afternoon.
Currently the strongest wind speeds are over the southern inner
channels around 20 to 30 kts. Southerly and easterly winds will
continue to increase across the area as a strong low pressure system
continue to push farther into the gulf. This afternoon and evening,
strongest winds will be over Clarence Strait and into Chatham and
Sumner Strait. Clarence Strait will specifically see winds near 35
kts this evening. Soon to follow Lynn canal will start to see winds
increase and continue into Sunday morning with strongest winds most
likely Sunday afternoon. Lynn Canal is also very likely to see winds
near 35 to 40 kts with gusts around 50 kts. With how strong this low
pressure system is, with lowest pressure around 975 mb, there is the
chance that areas see stronger than forecasted winds. This is
especially true for east to west facing channels. Winds then
diminish late Sunday into Monday with a short break over the
panhandle. Active weather is expected again to continue for next
week.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds and waves have once again
begun to increase across the gulf as a strong low pressure system
moves through the gulf. In the far off shore winds have already
increased to around 30 to 35 kts. Winds across the gulf will
continue to increase with widespread gale force winds of 35 to 40
kts, with gusts up to 55 kts. Along with these strong winds,
significant wave heights will quickly increase with highest waves
around 15 to 20 ft across the gulf. Strongest winds and highest seas
are most likely to occur Sunday morning before diminishing Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. The gulf will then get a brief break
from strong winds late Sunday into Monday. Active weather is still
in store for next week as winds once again increase across the gulf
into Tuesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ317.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ318-319.
     Flood Watch from 4 AM AKDT Sunday through late Sunday night for
     AKZ318-319.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ320>325-327.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Sunday for AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...EAB

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