676
FXAK67 PAJK 200100
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 PM AKST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

 - Gale force front pushes through the panhandle Wednesday night
   with another strong front following shortly behind on
   Thursday.

 - High Wind Warning for Prince of Wales Island is set to expire
   at 6 PM, though elevated wind gusts will persist overnight.

 - Winter Storm Warning for the Haines Highway near Haines Customs
   expiring at 6 PM tonight, additional snowfall up to 2 inches
   expected.

 - Winter Weather Advisory has been extended for the Klondike
   Highway near White Pass until 6 AM Friday for long duration
   snowfall, with an additional 6 to 12 inches expected through
   early Friday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Tonight/...
A low pressure system sitting in the central gulf has pushed a
strong front into the panhandle Wednesday afternoon. This front is
currently sitting along the outer coast of the panhandle and will
continue moving northeast through tonight before another front
moves into the area Thursday morning. Strongest winds are
currently blowing off the outer coast and up through the southern
panhandle, moving north through the panhandle overnight. Gusts up
to 60 mph in Prince of Wales Island are diminishing through the
evening, therefore the high wind warning will be allowed to expire
at 6 PM.

Expecting light to moderate rain with accumulations around 0.5
inches or less for a majority of communities, with higher elevated
regions seeing between 0.5 and 1 inch. Some of the northernmost
regions may see a rain/snow mix overnight, with higher elevated
areas seeing mostly snow. The northern highways, past mile marker
35 on the Haines Highway and past mile marker 10 on the Klondike
Highway, will see accumulating snow of 3 to 4 inches Wednesday
night. A winter storm warning for the Haines Highway will be
expiring tonight, while a longer duration winter weather advisory
for the Klondike will remain in effect through Thursday.


.SHORT TERM.../Thursday and Thursday night/...
The upper level steering flow continues to remain active across
SE, as an increasingly negatively tilted trough across the Bering
Sea continues to steer impulses along its southern flank up and
into the panhandle. Widespread rain and snow showers in the
immediate wake of a previous front sent into the panhandle
Wednesday night will give way to another organized front on
Thursday.

This second front arriving on Thursday brings with it not only
more rain and wind, but also the chances for more snow for the
Klondike Highway. Accumulating snow through the daytime hours
remains low confidence, as 850 mb temperatures will be marginal,
and snow levels could rise as high as 2500 feet through Thursday
morning as the previous front successfully pushes north. Snowfall
totals during this time frame will be dependent on snow melt
cooling, and QPF rates sufficient to overwhelm the worst of the
WAA. However, this WAA will diminish through the latter half of
Thursday as the pressure gradient goes parallel, winds slacken,
and snow levels begin to diminish once more. As a result, am more
confident in the the possibility for more accumulating snow
Thursday night, though QPF rates will also be diminishing through
this time frame. Think that additional snowfall totals through
Thursday night on the Klondike Highway could range between 6 - 13
inches, as extended the pre-existing winter weather advisory for
the Klondike through Thursday night as a result.

Strengthened winds in the inner channels through Thursday night,
and moved up the timing of the switch to southerly winds in Lynn
Canal. Also increased land-based winds as the second front arrives
on Thursday, and strengthened wind gusts across much of the
panhandle, with strong winds expected for many locations,
including Juneau. Also refined anticipated Thursday snowfall for
the Klondike Highway.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...
Waves continue to rotate around the low in the northwestern Gulf
through the end of this week, allowing for precipitation to
continue across the panhandle Friday into the weekend. There will
be a general downward trend in precipitation amounts as the low in
the Gulf weakens Friday and Saturday, before ridging begins to
build Sunday into Monday, bringing a drier and colder trend for
early next week.

A shortwave will follow up behind the last wave of precipitation
on Friday, the highest rates being for the late morning through
the evening across the panhandle. Largely expecting between 0.4
and 0.6 inches in 24 hours across the panhandle Friday, with
between 2 and 3 inches of snow in 24 hours for the Klondike
Highway above 2000 ft and less than an inch of snow expected for
the Haines Highway near the border. The snow being expected mostly
in the night and early morning for the Haines Highway and above
2000 ft for the Klondike is due to the higher snow levels and
warmer 850 mb temperatures Friday.

Both snow levels and 850 mb temperatures however will begin to
decrease over the northern panhandle into Saturday from the weaker
onshore flow and less warm air advecting into the area as the low
begins to weaken, and as a high begins to develop to the
northeast / east over British Columbia into Sunday. Precipitation
will linger across the panhandle but largely diminish Saturday
into Sunday, with the highest PoPs remaining along the outside
coastline and southern panhandle by Sunday. The northern panhandle
will begin to rapidly diminish Sunday night into Monday, as weak
offshore flow from the N and E from the surface high pressure
strengthening over Canada while the low diminishes to rather weak
troughing over the Gulf. Snow levels as well as temperatures will
begin to drop into Monday, particularly for the northern panhandle
as 850 mb temperatures decrease to -7 to -9 degrees C, however
the lack of QPF will result in a cold and drier pattern come for
early next week. However, as snow levels begin to drop and
temperatures along with it Saturday night and through Sunday,
there is potential for some rain snow mixing north of Icy Strait
Corridor Saturday night through Sunday. PoPs will decrease
throughout this time frame and becoming a slight chance to chance
Sunday night, and the decreased QPF amounts will lead to very
little to no accumulation even if snow mixing occurs. Even along
the highways, the low QPF amounts Saturday and Sunday will only
allow for around an inch of snow accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 00z Friday/
MVFR to VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this afternoon
with CIGS generally AoB 4000ft ongoing as a strong front pushes
into the SEAK coast. With this front, PIREPs reporting LLWS for
lower panhandle TAF sites like Ketchikan and Klawock, with stout
SE-ly around 40 to 50kts near 2000ft, with multiple PIREPS
reporting light to moderate turbulence around 4000ft for the S
panhandle TAF sites. Through the rest of this evening,
anticipating trends to remain generally the same as front stalls,
draped over Prince of Wales Island and just off-shore of Baranof,
with precip and MVFR flight conditions becoming more predominate
by 12 to 16z Thursday morning with CIGS AoB 3500ft.

Strongest winds through the next few hours expected to continue
for the central panhandle with front stalled, with sustained winds
around 25kts with gusts up to 35kts for Sitka and Ketchikan.
Elsewhere, winds will decrease briefly overnight to around 10kts
or less. Winds increase once more for Thursday as another system
pushes into the panhandle, with increasing gradient along the N/S
channels. Expecting wind gusts up to 35kts to develop by 00z
Friday for the Icy Strait Corridor TAF sites and northward,
particularly for Juneau, Skagway, and Haines. Main aviation
concern will be long duration SE-ly LLWS around 30 to 40kts
persisting through Thursday as multiple waves push into the
panhandle. Strongest LLWS expected along the coast of Baranof and
Prince of Wales Island and south of a line from Sitka over to
Petersburg through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A gale force front is pushing into the panhandle
through Wednesday night, with strongest winds along the eastern
gulf coast diminishing tonight. Coastal buoys currently reporting
southeasterly sustained near gales to gale force winds (28 to 40
kts) with gale to storm force gusts (34 to 47 kts) decreasing
through the next few hours. Wave heights up to 25 ft with 20 ft
southeasterly swell will decrease to 10 to 15 ft overnight with 8
to 10 ft swell. Another strong front will follow close behind,
moving into the gulf overnight and swinging up into the panhandle
Thursday morning. Southwesterly gale force winds will follow this
front through the central gulf, but strongest speeds will only
reach the coast through the early morning hours before pulling
back to stay in the central gulf. Speeds will gradually diminish
to strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) through Thursday.
Wave heights will increase back up to 25 ft offshore Thursday
afternoon with 15 to 20 ft swell turning southwesterly, but will
quickly decrease to around 15 ft into Friday morning.

Inside Waters: The gale force front is pushing north through the
panhandle through Wednesday night, with southeasterly fresh to
strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) continuously increasing overnight.
Lynn Canal will continue blowing 15 kts or less overnight before
the next surge flips it southerly. As another strong front moves
through the panhandle through Thursday morning, widespread near
gale to gale force winds (28 to 40 kts) will push north through
the channels. Speeds will begin to decrease through Thursday
afternoon, but will still stay elevated at fresh breezes with
spots of strong breezes before decreasing into Friday. Channel
entrances will see wave heights reach 10 to 15 ft with both
systems, dropping down closer to 10 ft in between. The rest of the
inner channels will see around 3 to 5 ft heights increase to 6 to
8 ft with the peak of the front.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ319.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ327-330-332.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ328.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ013-021-031>036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-012-022-053.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...ZTK
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...ZTK

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