713
FXAK67 PAJK 301850
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1050 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.UPDATE...Update to include 18z TAF Issuance...

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 18z Thursday/...Widespread VFR to MVFR
conditions trend through the morning, with low CIGs around 2000
to 3000 ft currently blanketing the panhandle. Scattered showers
continue to move across the panhandle Wednesday morning, with more
breaks beginning to take hold. Some heavier showers will continue
to drop VIS down to 2-4SM, but should move through quickly and be
followed by a return to MVFR/VFR conditions. Part of the cloud
deck in Northern Lynn Canal is sitting around 700 ft bringing PAHN
down to IFR conditions, which may begin to lift as showers move
in.

A more organized band of precipitation is slowly traversing
eastward through the NE gulf this morning, and is expected to move
into the northern and central panhandle through the second half
of Wednesday. The timing has been pushed bach slightly, with the
band now expected to reach the NE outer coastline around 21-00z.
This will bring much of the panhandle down to MVFR conditions,
with CIGs down to 1500-2500 ft expected through the end of the TAF
period. Winds will increase to 10 kt with some gusts to 20 kt as
this pushes through. PAGY and PAHN will see the strongest of these
winds, picking up this afternoon and increasing to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25-30 kt through the evening. While most locations from
PASI to PAPG and northward will see deteriorating conditions again
through the afternoon, the southern panhandle may see improvement
to VFR conditions with potential for breaks in the clouds through
the early afternoon.

...ZTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 550 AM AKDT Wed Sep 30 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain showers are fewer and farther between this morning, but
  will be increasing in intensity and frequency by this evening.

- Winds fairly benign across inner channels this morning before
  increasing with next front approaching this afternoon and
  evening.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s
  and lows in the mid to low 40s.

SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/ General W to SW onshore
flow remains the norm across the panhandle this morning, and while
showers have becoming fewer and farther between, they are still
present. Inner channel winds are mostly 15 kt or less out of the S
and E. Things will be changing into this afternoon and evening as
an upper level trough moves over the area from W to E. First the
shower activity is expected to increase in intensity and frequency
across the northern 2/3rds of the panhandle this afternoon and
evening. Total rainfall from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday
afternoon will likely range from around a quarter inch to 0.75
inches. Some of these showers could be strong enough to produce
lightning from around Cross Sound to Yakutat Wed night. Winds will
also be on the increase, especially in the northern inner
channels. Lynn Canal is expected to reach 25 kt Wed night and
could go slightly higher in the northern part of the Canal. Other
northern inner channel areas will likely see winds of 15 to 20 kt
Wed night. Both winds and showers are expected to diminish
Thursday, but the showers are not expected to completely
disappear. With onshore flow from the gulf continuing, some
showers will linger into Friday especially for the northern
panhandle.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/...A low pressure system
originating from a mid-level North Pacific trough will move along
the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf of Alaska this weekend.
Reinforced by a stronger system behind it, it will produce
prolonged rainfall from Saturday into early next week, fueled by
tropical moisture and weak but continuous divergent flow aloft.
Models continuing to favor landfall along the north-central coast
near Cordova. The system could bring moderate to heavy rain, with
the highest totals expected along the northeast Gulf coast and
higher terrain, though most of the region will be impacted. Warm
advection seems apparent through many levels of the atmosphere
along this system, which will allow for a very slight warming in
temperatures, but not expecting much of a difference due to
persistent cloud coverage across the region this weekend.

Climatological guidance is trending higher, though values remain
within seasonal norms. The NE Gulf Coast may see locally heavy,
long duration rainfall instead of showery bursts due to limited
cold air aloft and minimal convective activity. For the heaviest
period (Saturday evening to Sunday evening), 24-hour QPF averages
1.5-3 inches, with up to 4-5 inches at higher elevations. GEFS and
Euro ENS indicate PWATs around 175% of normal. The GEPS is
trending more aggressive, while the GEFS and Euro ENS align more
on timing and intensity. Stronger winds and building seas are also
increasingly likely along the outer coast and northern inner
channels ahead of the low. The active pattern will persist into
next week as the following Bering Sea low reinforces onshore flow,
though rain chances should taper off by mid week.

AVIATION...Scattered showers continue to move across the
panhandle with larger breaks between showers this morning, keeping
most areas at VFR to MVFR conditions. Some heavier showers will
continue to drop VIS down to 2-4SM at times through the morning,
but these will quickly move through and be followed by a break
with a return to MVFR/VFR conditions after the shower passes. Some
areas around PoW have begun to see clearing overnight, bringing
1-2SM VIS as patches of fog have developed, however much of this
fog remains shallow and not particularly widespread, expecting to
lift into the morning.

A more organized wave of precipitation is expected to move across
the northern and central panhandle this afternoon starting with
the NE outer coastline at 18-20z. This will keep most areas at
MVFR and bring some elevated winds across the area, with CIGs down
to 1500-2500 ft expected through the end of the TAF period. Winds
will increase to 10 kt with some gusts to 20 kt as this pushes
through. PAGY and PAHN will see the strongest of these winds,
picking up by around 21z and increasing through the evening to
15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt.

While most locations from PASI to PAPG and northward will see
deteriorating conditions again through the afternoon, the southern
panhandle will begin to see improvement between 21z and 03z to
VFR conditions.

MARINE... Inner Channels: S to E winds of 15 kt or less dominate
the inner channels this morning and seas are mostly 3 ft or less.
That will be changing into this afternoon and evening as an upper
trough moves through the area. Lynn Canal will see the higher
winds with 25 kt S winds expected. The northern part of the Canal
could see slightly higher winds up to 30 kt at times overnight as
well. Other areas of the inner channels from Sumner Strait
northward will see 15 to 20 kt winds overnight Wed night. Seas
will be on the order of 4 to 5 ft. Seas near ocean entrances
exposed to the W and SW will likely be a few feet higher due to
persistent W swell from the gulf through Wed night. Winds and seas
are expected to diminish to 15 kt or less into Thursday and will
stay mostly low into Friday. The exception might be N Lynn where
20 kt S winds might persist into Friday.

Gulf Waters: S to SW flow around 15 to 20 kt is the main rule of
the day across the gulf waters. That will not change all that much
into the late week except for a diminishing trend in wind speeds
into Thursday after an upper trough moves through. Seas are around
6 to 8 ft with a persistent W swell around 5 to 7 ft (period
around 10 sec). These seas will persist until Thursday when a
subsiding swell and lowering winds lead to a diminishing trend in
waveheights down to 4 to 5 ft by Thursday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...EAL

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