641
FXAK67 PAJK 231747
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
847 AM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025

.UPDATE...
Update to Aviation discussion at 18z.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Active shower pattern continues through Sunday.

 - Rain/snow mix across the southern panhandle Sunday, becoming
   light snow sunday night for the northern panhandle

 - Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
   week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of
   the panhandle.

SHORT TERM.../ through Sunday night / Broad low in the northern
Gulf of Alaska persisting through Saturday night. Satellite
imagery showing a band of semi organized showers rotating about
the. The showers are from near Kodiak across the northern gulf
and the south to Sitka-Klawock are. A secondary band is behind the
first out over the central gulf. The atmosphere, may be unstable
enough that isolated thunder could develop in the showers so added
this to the forecast, with most of this threat out over the
eastern gulf coast waters. Have not seen any strikes via the
lightning detection systems so may have put too much on it.

The low will weaken through the day and overnight. High pressure
will build from Northern Alaska through Northwest Canada to
Alberta. Surface ridging in the 1020s to lower 1030s mb, is
starting to build the arctic air pool over area with 850
temperatures beginning to lowers to the minus teens Celsius
which is the start to the bigger cold pools for later winter.
Deep winter may be coming, but not here yet.

LONG TERM...Starting Monday morning, a low in the Gulf continues
to weaken while still bringing some onshore flow to the area.
This onshore flow will likely continue to bring showers to the
panhandle. More specifically, the central panhandle looks to be
the main focus for any precipitation that does fall. As this low
weakens, high pressure is starting to look more likely to develop
in the Interior as well as near the Yukon. With this strengthening
high pressure as well as cold air from the Arctic, the pressure
gradient between the coast and the Yukon is expected to
strengthen. With this increased gradient, winds are expected to
increase through the gaps in the terrain bringing us offshore
flow. With the offshore flow, precipitation chances are expected
to diminish as well as colder temperatures are looking more likely
for this upcoming week. Some places could potentially see their
coldest temperatures since last winter. There is still some
uncertainty in ensemble guidance so the fine details are not as
clear yet. But this pattern change is looking very likely headed
into next week. Headed into the latter half of the week, the
uncertainty continues with regards to potentially seeing a warm up
for the panhandle. But with the cold air in place, any moisture
that moves into the area could fall as snow before switching to
rain. Things could still change going forward and will continue to
be watched.

AVIATION...Shower activity continues to plague the Panhandle,
spreading northeast, complicating the 18z TAF package. While VFR
is widespread, leaned pessimistically on the potential to see -SN
mixing down, diminishing VSBY to IFR/MVFR at times and CIGS AoB
2000 ft. Sunday night precipitation activity increases, with -SN
likely impacting more of the Panhandle. Overall trend is going to
be deteriorating conditions through the day Sunday with increasing
shower activity and snow mixing in with rain for heavier showers,
particularly further inland. No significant surface winds or
LLWS, though some erratic winds cannot be ruled out with heavier
showers along the outer coast with isolated lightning potential.
Multiple flying hazards to contend with over the next 24 hours
from lowered CIGs, to significant drops in VIS due to snow or
rain/snow showers, as well as isolated moderate icing.

MARINE...
Outside: Onshore flow from a departing shortwave northern
British Columbia and southern Yukon will give way to a weak,
somewhat vertically stacked low in the northern central gulf. A
short wave negatively tilted trough will move up from the south,
kicking up southerly winds up to a fresh breeze along the NE gulf
coast down to around Cape Decision. As the associated front moves
against the terrain, expect to see a tip jet develop across the
coast of Cape Spencer, with winds exceeding 25 knots. Waves remain
elevated from westerly to southwesterly swell to 12 ft, with
overall wave heights beginning around 13 ft, and diminishing to
around 7 ft throughout through Sunday night.

Inside:  The trough expected to move up through the southern
and central panhandle looks to stall around Icy Strait, keeping
Lynn Canal mostly drainage flow past Sunday night. Wind
associated with this trough look to be around a moderate to fresh
breeze from the SE, steadily increasing over the day Sunday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Bezenek

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