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FXAK67 PAJK 021733
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
933 AM AKDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion and Mid-Morning Update...

No major changes to the forecast this morning. The main headline
continues to be the unseasonably warm and dry conditions across
the Panhandle. The marine layer will continue to impact the
northern gulf and areas into Cross Sound and Icy Strait through
the day. This marine layer will weaken any sea breeze development
along those areas, and will keep temperatures slightly cooler
with increased cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...
Similar to yesterday, the above normal temps and clear skies
continue for SE AK.

Key Messages:
- Clear skies with near 0% chance for precip.
- Above normal afternoon highs in the 70s to around 80 likely for
  most of the area.
- With the exception of sea breezes, wind speeds will remain
  light.
- Some concern for spotty areas of marine layer development.

Details: High pressure continues over the gulf and it is the main
character in our weather story. This high pressure is keeping the
rain at bay and keeping the dry/sunny weather in place.

We are also seeing some very warm air aloft, upwards of 10+
degrees C above normal for this time of year at the 850mb level.
So, once that warm air is able to mix down to the surface, highs
in the 70s to around 80 are likely around the panhandle. That
being said, for those along the coast, slightly cooler temps in
the 60s to around 70 are most likely.

A couple variables that can break this temperature forecast are
sea breezes and marine layers.

For those near the water, if a sea breeze is able to develop,
that will keep temps much lower than the forecasted 70s. So the
farther away from the water you are, the more likely of seeing 70s
Tuesday afternoon.

The marine layer, while a lower chance of happening, would keep
temps cooler. For now, mainly looking at Yakutat for any marine
layer impacts, that would include fog, but if the extra moisture
is able to slide east into Icy Strait, it would keep afternoon
temps cooler for those in the northern panhandle. Otherwise,
anticipate the marine layer to redevelop and impact the outer
coastal waters, southern panhandle, and Icy Strait Corridor
Tuesday night in to Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...Continuing to see the high pressure linger over
the Gulf, allowing for warmer weather and preventing precipitation
and cloud cover from reaching the panhandle. This will keep the
clear skies and warmer than average temperatures across the
panhandle through Thursday, with the warmest temperatures in the mid
to high 70s up to around 80 degrees extending into Wednesday now.
NBM guidance for the southern panhandle and parts of Juneau and
Haines show probabilities of around a 40-60% chance of exceeding 80
degrees on Wednesday afternoon. This is alongside 850 mb
temperatures still remaining 13-15 degrees C over the northern
panhandle and 17-19 degrees C over the southern panhandle into 00Z
Thursday. Inland areas will be the warmest across these areas
Wednesday, before generally beginning to decrease into the end of
the week. Thursday looks to still be rather warm, still having some
13-15 degree C temperatures at 850 mb and clearer skies in the
northern panhandle that morning and afternoon, but not expected to
be as warm as Wednesday.

Precipitation will begin to slowly push into the northeast Gulf
coast around Yakutat Thursday night into Friday, bringing some light
rain chances across parts of the panhandle throughout the day
Friday. These chances remain low still with between 15 and 30% PoPs
Friday into the weekend, as there is potential for the surface high
to still linger and prevent as much moisture actually pushing into
the panhandle. The largest barrier to precipitation moving in will
remain dependent on when the surface high pressure actually
breaks down and begins to allow for systems to move in from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions prevail across the panhandle with
the exception of Yakutat where a marine layer has developed and
will continue to bring ceilings below 2000 ft through the day.
This marine layer is starting to develop across Cross Sound and
Icy Strait. Across other areas of the panhandle, mostly clear
skies will continue throughout the day. Winds will once again
increase during the late morning to afternoon hours as sea breezes
develop. Areas near Ketchikan are already seeing increased winds
up to 10 kts. Similar to previous days, these winds will continue
to increase with the highest winds around 15 kts.

For tonight into tomorrow morning, the marine layer will persist.
The marine layer is expected to move slightly southward and start to
impact and lower the ceilings along the coast off of Sitka, Prince
of Wales Island, and into the southern panhandle. With the marine
layer, visibilities and ceiling will lower to MVFR with times of
IFR. This will impact daily warming and sea breezes along areas
that have a marine layer develop.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside: Little change from yesterday. High pressure continues to
control our skies here in SE AK. Swell remains out of the south
at 2ft 14-18 seconds, with wind waves of 6 to 10 ft less than 10
seconds along the Prince of Wales (PoW) Coast and Dixon Entrance.
These wind waves are being driven by fresh to strong breezes (17
to 27 knots) out of the NW, highest winds off the coast of PoW and
Cape Fairweather. Wind speeds look to decrease for the second
half of the week as the high pressure weakens.

Inside: Sea breezes continue to be the primary concern for the
inner channels over the next 48 hours. Reported winds speeds have
been getting up to around 10 to 20 kts in the usual trouble
spots, Near Point Couverden, the tighter spots in Stephen`s
Passage, and in Southern Chatham Strait. Winds should calm down
during the overnight and stay lighter into Tuesday morning before
picking back up again for Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds look to
decrease for the second half of the week as the high pressure
weakens.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions continue with poor RH
recovery, relative to rainforest standards, for areas above the
marine influence (above 1500ft). FFMC continues to drive the fire
danger indices, residing in the upper 80s to low 90s in select
areas of Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Skagway. The message
remains consistent, we do not expect large 10+ acre fire growth in
old growth timber; however, fire danger for fine flashy fuels
continues to persist.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM AKDT Wednesday for AKZ319-325-328-330-
     332.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-661>664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS/GJS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...GFS/AP
Fire...GFS/AP

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