527
FXAK67 PAJK 051340
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
440 AM AKST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SHORT TERM...

Key Messages:
-Marine winds up to Strong Breeze expected within Lynn Canal and
 near Taku Inlet through Wednesday evening, with light freezing
 spray possible.
-Increasing clouds, but widespread dry conditions continue through
 Wednesday with a pattern change moving into Thursday.
-High temperatures today reach into the low 30s to low 40s with
 lows tonight dropping into the 20s to low 30s at sea level.

Details:
Persistence forecast for much of Wednesday as outflow winds
continue to weaken under dry conditions. Main forecast challenge
through the short term remains diurnal temperatures and winds as
mid/upper level ridge axis shifts over the panhandle through the
afternoon. Similar thinking to yesterday, with widespread
temperatures reaching into the 30s and isolated locations briefly
reaching into the low 40s this afternoon. For minimum temperatures
Wednesday night, main forecast problem will be wind speeds, the
timing/height of increasing cloud cover from an approaching
system, and how insulated surface temperatures will remain.
Fortunately, there shouldn`t be any cold weather product concerns.

A pattern change kicks off through late Wednesday afternoon as a
mid/upper level shortwave trough develops over southcentral
AK/Prince William Sound, with an attendant surface low moving down
into the NE Gulf coast by early Thursday morning. Given the speed
and strength of the system in combination with very dry lower
levels, not anticipating much, if any, precipitation over the
panhandle through early Thursday. As the low moves closer to the
SEAK coast, anticipating winds to increase once more in inner
channels and outflow prone areas, though not as strong as last
weekend`s outflow event.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...
The pattern change for mid range into the long term forecast period
will become established by Thursday. High pressure ridge at mid
levels will have shifted to the east as a stronger low moves over
the Bering Sea area. By next week start to see energy from that
strong low moving into the AK Gulf. The weak NE Gulf low keeps
tracking SE along the Panhandle coast Thursday into late Friday. For
the weekend another ridge moves over with a likely return to the
typical weather fronts tracking in. SE AK does not look to get into
any highly impactful weather patterns with position of the mid level
ridge, most of the excitement will be the the west.

Precip from the coastal low is indicated to remain mostly off shore
but just tag the SE Panhandle Thursday. With the next ridge its a
onshore flow pattern so once again chance precip for the inner
channels Friday and Saturday. Due to the source of the end of week
low little in the way of moisture transport thus expect maybe a few
hundredths of QPF if anything. Due to the remaining cold air snow
ratios are in the 15-20:1 range, which could drop an inch of light
snow if precip bands move further inland. Temps getting back to a
more seasonable range with highs back into the upper 20s and mid 30s
and lows in the low to high 20s.

Models kept with the chance of precip for SE AK and position and
track of the low. Ensembles get us back to a typical SE AK pattern
but the issue is timing of any blocking ridge break down and that
models tend to make this happen sooner. Little changes made to
previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flight conditions continue to dominate the
panhandle with some high clouds rotating around the northern edge
of a ridge in the gulf. Outflow winds continue, particularly in
the areas of Taku Inlet, Taiya Inlet and the Stikine delta.
Drainage winds will also continue down the Chilkat Valley towards
Haines gusting to 25 kt through the day. No significant LLWS in
the TAF period, though outflow and gap winds mentioned above could
lead to pockets of turbulence. Otherwise no significant weather
expected in the panhandle for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...STJ

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