701
FXAK67 PAJK 310556
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
956 PM AKDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.UPDATE...to add the 06z aviation discussion...

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Sunday/
Key Points:
 - Ridge in the gulf keeps the rain out of the area, and
   decreases cloud cover once again.
 - Not as warm for the weekend, but maximum temperatures will be
   in the low to mid 70s.
 - Afternoon to evening sea breezes continue for areas across the
   panhandle.

Details: The trough over the northern gulf coast has dissipated
as of late this morning, and cloud cover has begun to decrease
around the Yakutat and Gustavus areas. Something that the
shortwave has affected was our high temperatures for the weekend.
Temperatures at 850 mb have slightly decreased, in turn decreasing
maximum daily temperatures across the panhandle. That being said,
daily high temperatures will remain in the high 60s to low 70s
for northern and central areas, and reach low to mid 70s for
southern areas.

With continuing clear skies, somethings that will continue to
occur are areas of fog, mainly near Klawock and the Icy Strait
Corridor, in the morning and developing sea breezes during the
afternoon hours. Sea breezes will increase land winds to 10 to 15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts. The strongest of these sea breezes
are expected along Lynn Canal and Icy Strait. Other inner
channels, such as Cross Sound, Clarence Strait, and ocean
entrances, will also see increasing winds as the pressure gradient
strengthens from the ridge over the gulf. This ridge and pressure
gradient will continue to create winds of 20 to 25 kts along the
eastern gulf coast for the outside waters.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure over the gulf continues warm, dry weather
- Temperatures increase to above normal again Monday and Tuesday

Little changes to the forecast through the upcoming week as a
broad upper level ridge and a resilient surface level high will
keep the panhandle dry and warm, prolonging the clear skies and
above normal temperatures, particularly for the southern
panhandle. Icy Strait will see recurring inflow sea breezes in the
afternoon hours which will accelerate around Point Couverden as
southerly winds pick up along Lynn Canal. These will then rebound
overnight with winds slackening and likely reversing direction in
many areas as drainage winds coming out of valleys take over,
though not as strongly.

Maximum temperatures in the southern panhandle are expected to
reach the mid 70s up to around 80 on Monday, with inland areas
feeling the warmest as they are not susceptible to sea breezes.
The northern panhandle will see high 60s to start the week, with
inland areas breaching low 70s. Minimum temperatures will reach
the low 50s to high 40s, as the lack of cloud cover allows the
land to cool much more significantly at night. Temps will be above
normal for much of the week, as evidenced by MaxT EFIs of 1
across the panhandle. 850 mb temperatures aloft of 17 degrees
Celsius will spread over a majority of the panhandle, with the
southern panhandle potentially seeing 18 to 19 degrees C. This
further increases forecaster confidence that many communities will
see temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s through Tuesday, and
even higher for the southern panhandle. By later Tuesday, a shift
in wind direction could bring some cloud cover to the far southern
panhandle which could slightly lower daytime maximum temperatures
midweek.

An upper level low moves up from the southeast Wednesday
afternoon before jumping into the central gulf. Models have
slightly more agreement having the low jump onshore over the
panhandle, though drier air in place over the panhandle should
limit rainfall potential initially. However, associated surface
inflection could bring precipitation back to Yakutat Thursday,
reaching the rest of the panhandle Friday depending upon the
breakdown of the surface ridge.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 06Z Monday/...VFR fight conditions are in
store for most of the Panhandle. The primary exceptions may be
along the Outer Coast, the western half of the Icy Strait
Corridor, & the extreme southern Panhandle, which may see the
marine layer build back in later tonight & into Sunday morning.
That may cause them to dip down to anywhere between the LIFR &
MVFR categories for that timeframe. Tomorrow, the marine layer
should retreat from the coast, once again, & those areas should
rebound to VFR for the rest of the TAF period. As far as winds are
concerned, some afternoon & evening sea breezes may occur.
Besides that, they should remain on the lighter side. LLWS
continues to not be a concern through the period.

&&

.MARINE...Inner Channels: Local wind patterns from valley
drainage winds at night and sea breezes in the afternoons and
evenings are still the main forecast drivers. Some sea breezes
could reach 15 kt in Icy Strait, and near Skagway. Otherwise
lighter winds and seas of 3 ft or less are expected through late
week. An exception to this is across southern inner channels and
Cross Sound where winds of 15 kts are expected to continue as the
ridge remains over the central gulf. This will also create
stronger winds near ocean entrances where the stronger winds over
the gulf waters will reach some inner channel areas.

Outside Waters: High pressure has repositioned itself into the
central gulf decreasing winds and seas in the far outside waters
and in the northern gulf, but increasing northwesterly winds in
the eastern gulf. This is due to the pressure gradient
strengthening between the high pressure in the gulf, and the
thermal low in British Columbia. The high pressure system will
remain over the gulf and strengthen through the weekend allowing
for winds along the eastern gulf coast to remain elevated.
Currently, winds off Prince of Wales Island are around 20 kts with
seas around 5 to 6 ft with a 10 sec westerly period. These winds
are likely to increase to 25 kts this evening from Cape Ommaney
southward as the gulf high strengthens. The strengthening high
will build seas to 8 ft by late tonight in the same area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will keep much of the panhandle dry
through the weekend and into next week. Low risk for fire weather
concerns remain, but fine fuels are being watched. Lowest inland
relative humidity expected around 30 to 50% each afternoon where
skies are clear mainly for early next week. Warm temperatures
expected through mid next week but somewhat cooler for this
weekend compared to this past Thursday and Friday (60s and low 70s
for highs expected) before another warm period expected (70s or
higher for highs) for the first half of next week. Winds remain
low except for localized sea breezes up to 15 kt in the
afternoons.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAB

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