120
FXAK67 PAJK 151759
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
859 AM AKST Sat Nov 15 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion for 18z TAF issuance

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-Snow and mixed snow/rain showers training along the northeast
  gulf coast or just off shore. Keeping a close watch on the
  Yakutat area. If they train over the top of Yakutat proper a few
  overnight ( 2 to 4 possibly ) could fall.

- Occluded front from the Bering Sea parent low to move into the
  panhandle area late Friday to Saturday. This will spread the
  next band of organized precipitation into region Saturday.

- Brief break possible Sunday as ridging builds over the Gulf of
  Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...From the overnight, rain and snow has been reported
around the area due to a passing front. This front will continue
to track northward today. Behind the front is showers. These
showers will last through the day today with a diminishing trend
tonight into tomorrow.

This morning, we are seeing rain showers for areas south of Icy
Strait and a rain/snow mix or snow for those along and north of
Icy Strait. As the day goes on, any snow should end up being
contained to just the northern Lynn Canal area.

Along highways out of Haines and Skagway, expecting snow to linger
through Saturday morning with lower elevations mixing with rain.
Have 1 to 3 inches in the forecast now, however these overrunning
situations can be a challenge if the cold air remains in place
with continued moisture streaming into the area. But with the
diminishing trend in the showers, moisture will be a limiting
factor.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Minimal changes
to the Sunday forecast as the low moves southeast and ridging begins
to develop over the Gulf and panhandle. This will still bring a
period of lower PoPs, with some clearing in the cloud cover. The
drier weather expected to last longer for the central and southern
panhandle into early Monday morning, while some showers linger over
the NE Gulf coast and northern panhandle, before the next front
begins to move in from the west Monday morning. The winds during
this period will remain lighter across the panhandle, and stay more
northerly bringing some cooler temperatures particularly for Sunday
night, dropping minimum temperatures down to around freezing for
much of the northern panhandle and areas further from the coast.

The forecast remains largely the same for the front moving through
Monday into Tuesday, with the biggest change in the forecast being
in the precipitation types and amount of snow on the highways. Model
guidance has been trending more warm at the surface, with 850 mb
temperatures staying around -4 to -5C and surface max temperatures
nudging up to the high 30s to low 40s over the central and northern
panhandle as onshore flow returns to the panhandle Monday with this
next system. Snow levels are also increasing this week, from 500 to
600 ft Monday morning further north and far from the outer
coastline, to over 1000 ft by Tuesday morning across even the
northern panhandle. This warmer air brought in by this system and
higher snow levels and wet bulb temperatures correspond to more rain
being expected as the precipitation type Tuesday and Wednesday with
the exception of the highways. Monday morning there will be possible
mixing Icy Strait corridor northward due to the lower temperatures
from overnight as the moisture moves in, but transitioning to rain
during the morning to midday.

The greatest amount of QPF is expected along the NE Gulf coast for
this system, with around 1 inch in 24 hours Monday and expecting
another 0.5 to 1 inch Tuesday and Wednesday as precipitation
continues to move into the panhandle. The rest of the panhandle
should see amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per 24 hours as rain
lingers even after the front moves through, and as another wave
moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall this system will
bring between 1.5 and 3 inches of snow to the Haines Highway and
between 3 and 5 inches of snow to the Klondike Highway in 48 hours.
The winds for this system remain largely the same in the forecast,
aside from some increases to 15 to 20 kts Wednesday across the inner
channels as the second wave moves through. Otherwise, no other wind
impacts across the inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Low CIGs from a front pushing north through the
panhandle have begun to lift for the central panhandle and will
continue to do so up through Lynn Canal through the next few
hours. Light northerly winds along the surface have allowed for
snow to continue down to the surface at Haines and Skagway through
9 am leading to much lower VIS. This precipitation should diminish
into the late morning hours, eventually transitioning to showers
with a mix of more rain then snow later. For the entire panhandle,
precipitation should clear out by early Sunday morning, with
overall improvement to VFR conditions and diminishing clouds,
particularly for the southern panhandle. No LLWS expected for the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Main marine concerns in the short term forecast are
centered around the low pressure that is moving through the Gulf.
As of this morning, the low pressure center is approaching the
central Gulf and is tracking southeast. The associated front has
been swinging south-to-north overnight, bringing rain and snow to
the panhandle. By this afternoon, the low will reach the eastern
Gulf and will continue to move southeast Saturday evening.

Outside waters: As the low center travels through the area today,
the winds on the south side will be strongest at around 15 to 25
knots.

Lighter westerly winds are likely Sunday, at around 5 to 15
knots.

Inner Channels: Southerly winds around 5 to 15 knots are likely
with pockets of higher wind speeds. For now, expecting those
stronger winds to be near Icy Strait, Near Point Couverden, and
southern Stephens Passage. But as the front pushes northward
tonight, wind speeds in the inner channels should lighten up to
around 5 to 10 knots by late tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...GJS

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