745
FXAK67 PAJK 051459
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
559 AM AKST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Light mist with areas of fog are likely to continue across the
   panhandle with due to weak onshore flow.

 - The weekend through next week, models are falling into line
   behind a weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy
   snow. Higher confidence in totals for the northern panhandle,
   but still significant uncertainty elsewhere about timing and
   amounts, but details are being watched closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Minimal changes made overnight to the forecast as the overall
weather patterns remain on track. Light mist and rain continue
across the panhandle as onshore flow continues. The southern
panhandle is seeing more of a break from this light precipitation,
but in turn they are seeing continued areas of fog, at times
dense below 1 SM. Along with these lowered visibilities and
onshore conditions, winds will remain light across the area
through Friday afternoon. The only exception to this will be over
the southern gulf waters as a quick moving, weak low moves east
south of the panhandle. This low will bring slightly increased
winds across the southern gulf to around 15 to 20 kts through
Friday morning. Light winds of 10 to 15 kts, and weak onshore
flow, returns late Friday morning before a larger system arrives
Saturday.

On Friday night winds will begin to increase as a low pressure
system pushes into the north central gulf. This low will quickly
increase precipitation rates across the northern panhandle and
spread into the panhandle. Along with increasing precipitation
rates, decreasing temperatures will transition precipitation to snow
starting along the northern panhandle. Confidence is high for a long
lived snow event starting this weekend lasting into early next
week. Snow initially starts late Friday night, but the heaviest
amounts arrive later Saturday into Sunday. See the long term
forecast for more details on the snow forecast timing and
intensity

Main change to the forecast was to strengthen wind speeds a bit
more quickly for the inner channels and land-based areas than
previously forecast for Friday night into Saturday, given the
trajectory across the NE Gulf that a developing low will take
through Friday.

.LONG TERM...//Saturday through Tuesday/...A pattern change going
into this weekend is still looking to bring cold temperatures,
heavy precipitation, and strong winds to the panhandle into early
next week. Confidence has improved for snow potential in Skagway
and Haines over the weekend, and even more for the northern
highways. A winter storm warning has been issued for these areas
over the weekend, and a watch has been issued for Yakutat. The
special weather statement was also continued for the NE gulf coast
and the Icy Strait Corridor.

A system sending a front into the panhandle overnight Friday is
still looking to stall in the northern gulf through the weekend,
funneling consistent moisture over the panhandle. This front will
bring moderate to heavy rain rates to the area, with around an
inch to an inch and a half of rain in 24 hours expected for a
majority of locations and persisting at similar rates through the
weekend. Though these rain amounts may seem typical for a 24 hour
period, the persistence at those rates lasting through the weekend
and into next week will be watched closely, especially at higher
elevations. A cold air mass aloft shifts into the Yukon and
continues to moves southward through the weekend. A tightening
pressure gradient over the northern panhandle will increase
outflow winds through the weekend, helping to funnel the colder
air south into the panhandle. Decreasing temperatures with ample
available moisture will increase the potential for heavy snowfall
in the northern panhandle, extending south through the weekend and
into next week. Highest confidence of snowfall remains in the N
Panhandle over the weekend. Forecast becomes more of a challenge
moving towards the Icy Strait Corridor, starting as rain and
transitioning into a mix by Sunday, limiting potentially
accumulations. Expecting a transition over to snow going into
Monday, though uncertainty remains as to how much available
moisture there will be, limiting appreciable amounts. As snow
level drops south following the colder temperatures, snow
potential will also move further south towards the corridor, and
the rain/snow mix will then follow into the central panhandle.
Stay tuned to the forecast moving into the weekend as details come
into clearer view regarding potential amounts and refined timing.

As the gale force low moves into the northern Gulf and a high
sets up to the north of the panhandle into this weekend, a tight
pressure gradient allowing for northerly flow begins to set up
over the northern panhandle into Lynn Canal. This cold air mass to
the north contributes to the colder temperature trend over the
weekend and into early next week, alongside bringing stronger
winds down Lynn Canal. These winds will begin to increase Saturday
into Sunday with northerly gales in northern Lynn Canal with 35
to 40 kt winds by Sunday afternoon as the gradient tightens over
the northern panhandle. These gale force winds will last into the
beginning of next week as the gradient remains. Winds will
increase in Skagway at this time, with 25 to 35 mph sustained
winds possible Sunday and Monday. A decent 850-750 mb inversion
setting up over Whitehorse to the northeast will allow for these
winds to impact Skagway not only from the strong pressure
gradient, but from a decent density difference, allowing for more
confidence at Skagway having elevated winds over this timeframe
with gusts reaching up to 40 to 50 mph at times. Other land areas
will see an increase in SE winds as the front moves through, with
diminished winds between the waves of precipitation that push
through this weekend into early next week. Overall the outflow
pattern over the northern panhandle is expected to last into
midweek, with more northerly winds and offshore flow beginning to
move southward to around Icy Strait Corridor Monday onwards. This
cold dry air will help to lessen the precipitation amounts across
the northern panhandle midweek into the end of the week when
looking ahead.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Saturday night/...
Generally MVFR flight conditions with winds less than 10kts are
expected through the this afternoon. VIS and CIGs will
occasionally lower to IFR and even down to LIFR flight category
this morning as areas of fog and mist pass through the TAF sites,
especially. over PAYA and the northern TAF sites. The dense fog
that was over the southern panhandle diminished early this morning
and flight conditions have improved. An approaching system will
bring deteriorating flight conditions with IFR VIS AND CIGs later
today and into tonight, starting first at PAYA, PAGY and PAHN
this afternoon, then spreading southeast across the panhandle
through the night. Rain is expected to mix with snow today and
eventually change over to all snow tonight for PAHN and PAGY.
Winds will also increase to 10-15kts across for PASI and the
northern TAF sites overnight, while remaining below 10kts across
the south. LLWS expected to develop as winds 2kft aloft increase
25-35kt from the south to southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Calmer conditions last through Friday over the
Gulf as a weak high remains over the area, before being pushed out
by the oncoming system moving in from the west by Friday night.
This next system will bring southwesterly to southerly fresh to
strong breezes (17 to 27 kt) across the Gulf, with winds becoming
more southerly by Saturday. As the pressure gradient tightens
between the low in the Gulf and the high to the north over Canada
Saturday night into Sunday, northeasterly near gale to gale force
(30 to 40 kt) offshore winds and gap winds will occur along the NE
Gulf Coast between Yakutat Bay and Cape Spencer. The southeastern
Gulf will also see an increase from near gales to gales (28 to 36
kt) as a front moves through Saturday night into Sunday morning
and again Sunday night into Monday. Seas between 5 and 8 ft
tonight will quickly increase tomorrow night into Saturday as the
system moves in to between 10 and 14 ft. The seas will continue to
see an increase into Sunday to 12 to 16 ft. Southwesterly swell
continues tonight through the weekend.

Inner Channels: Predominantly calmer winds give way to a sharp
increase Friday night into Saturday as the next system moves into
the area. This will bring southeasterly winds across the inner
channels between a moderate to fresh breeze into Saturday, and up
to a strong breeze (22 to 27 kt) for northern Lynn, Frederick
Sound, Stephens Passage, and near the ocean entrances. The
channels will see a brief increase as the fronts move across the
panhandle this weekend into early next week. Northerly outflow
begins to set up over northern Lynn Sunday as the pressure
gradient begins to tighten, bringing near gales in the morning
becoming gales into the day Sunday. Largely expecting between 35
and 43 kt winds down Lynn Canal lasting from Sunday into early
next week, with the stronger northerlies moving southward down to
Point Couverden Sunday night into Monday. This will allow some
lower level convergence right around Point Couverden from the
southeasterly winds up Chatham Strait and the northerly outflow
coming down out of Lynn Canal, bringing winds around Rocky Island
to around 25 to 30 kt. Frederick Sound near Point Fanshaw and up
along Stephens Passage will continue to see strong breezes to near
gales throughout the weekend, alongside Clarence Strait seeing
near gales as the fronts move through and bring stronger
southeasterly winds.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Saturday night
     for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Sunday
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 PM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ031-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GFS

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