210
FXAK67 PAJK 021730
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
830 AM AKST Sun Nov 2 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Onshore flow continues persistent showers through the weekend,
  steadily decreasing into early this week.

- Isolated thunderstorms along eastern Gulf coast through midday
  Sunday.

- Winds elevated across inner channels and Skagway through Sunday
  evening, before rapidly diminishing across the panhandle into
  Monday.

SHORT TERM...The weakening low in the northwestern Gulf continues
to bring onshore flow across the panhandle, with shower activity
lasting through tonight. The chances for showers will remain
highest for the northern panhandle throughout the day as the low
continues to linger in the northern Gulf and bring in moisture
from the SW, but showers still remain likely across the majority
of the panhandle today. These showers will remain light, with
moderate to heavy rain still possible across the northern
panhandle this morning before rain rates diminish throughout the
day. Another shortwave will move through this evening into
tonight, however it looks to be a rather weak shortwave, with only
a bit of 500 mb vorticity supporting it as it moves through the
southern half of the panhandle. This will bring another round of
light showers with the highest rates being along the outer
coastline and southern panhandle, but nothing high in terms of
total rain amounts with only about 0.30 to 0.60 inches expected in
24 hours. Moderate to heavy snow for the Klondike Highway above
2000 ft is still expected to quickly diminish into this morning
as the highest QPF amounts are during the wave moving through
early this morning. Additional snow accumulations of 1 inch per
hour are expected through this morning, and diminishing after
around 10 am this morning to a rate of 1 inch every 6 hours
through tonight. Showers will begin to diminish across the
northern and central panhandle into early Monday morning, the
highest precipitation chances lasting longest along the outer
coastline.

Winds early this morning have remained elevated for Skagway, with
sustained winds around 35 mph and gusts to 45 mph lasting
overnight. These increased southerly winds and gusty conditions
are expected to remain through this evening, as the pressure
gradient remains tightened and slight surface ridging forms over
the northern panhandle. This, along with the rest of the winds
across the panhandle, will rapidly diminish into tonight,
particularly after 06z for the Skagway area. These lighter winds
will remain into Monday.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Friday/...Mostly benign start to the week,
transitioning back into wet weather primarily for the southern half
of the panhandle by midweek, followed by continued active weather
with multiple rounds of energy moving up from the south.

Monday will begin off the week with a weak trough moving up along
the Coast Mountains from the south. Expecting this trough to mostly
impact the southern panhandle, with much of the organization
shearing apart on the mountains. Needless to say, a bulk of the rain
showers are expected in the extreme southern panhandle, with
decreasing rain chances the further north. Keeping a bit more
uncertainty in the forecast as roughly 25% of ensemble members
indicate a deeper trough, which would travel further inland,
although chances drop below 30% around the Icy Strait area.

For midweek, looks like the active pattern continues, with a deep
surface low moving up from the south, settling in the southeastern
gulf by Tuesday. With the initial front to sweep across up the
panhandle, there is roughly an 75% chance of at least gale force
winds in the outer gulf and at least strong breezes in the southern
inner waters, such as Clarence Strait and Sumner Strait. With the
low placement, expecting to see a pickup in northerlies out of
interior passes, such as Taku Inlet and Taiya Inlet. With the
initial band, there is the possibility of snow down to around 800 ft
near Haines and Skagway. The big question right now is how strong
the front will be, and therefore, how far the front will push
northward.

While the parent low in the gulf is expected to be fully stacked and
well occluded, multiple shortwave troughs aloft SW of Haida Gwaii
continuously moves energy northward for the rest of the week. Hence
enters the uncertain portion of the forecast, which could lead to
some larger changes as we get closer in time. What can be said,
however, is the southern half of the panhandle is largely expected
to stay wet and windy into the weekend.

AVIATION.../through 18z Tuesday/
MVFR to VFR flight conditions continue across the panhandle this
morning as front departs and low weakens in the N Gulf. CIGS
general hovering AoB 5000ft, with some isolated spots breaking out
briefly to around 8000ft. Through the reset of saturated,
isolated showers will continue as on-shore flow remains
persistent, dropping visbys down to around 2 to 4SM within any
heavier rain. CIGS should generally continue around 3000 to 5000ft
through the afternoon with MVFR to VFR flight conditions
prevailing, with aforementioned isolated IFR visbys within any
heavier shower.

Winds will strong remain across far northern TAF sites, like
Haines and Skagway, with sustained winds around 30kts with gusts
up to 45kts for Skagway and sustained winds around 15kts with
gusts up to 30kts through 03z this afternoon for Haines, quickly
diminishing thereafter. Elsewhere across the panhandle, sustained
winds should remain around 15kts or less, with isolated gusts up
to 25kts, again quickly diminishing through 03z this afternoon.

MARINE...
Outside Waters: Showers continue across the Gulf with southwesterly
15 to 25 kt winds continuing into this morning. Winds offshore diminish
by tonight as the low in the NW Gulf weakens further and moves
inland to the west. Winds will shift to a more southerly direction
as the low moves west, and diminish to largely 10 to 15 kt by
early Monday morning. Potential for isolated thunderstorms will
remain until midday as convective activity remains offshore, from
the NE Gulf coast down along Baranof Island. 12 to 15 ft seas
diminish throughout today and into tonight, to 7 to 10 ft seas by
early Monday morning, the highest of which remaining in the
southeast Gulf. W 8 to 12 ft swell diminishing to a 5 to 8 ft
westerly swell by tonight.

Inner Channels: Largely 15 to 30 kt winds across the inside
waters as the low keeps a tightened pressure gradient over the
panhandle this morning through this afternoon. Winds between 25
and 35 kt expected for Lynn Canal this morning, near Point
Couverden, and through Stephens Passage as the low in the
northwest Gulf keeps winds elevated across the N-S oriented
channels. These elevated winds will last through 00z to 03z this
evening, before rapidly diminishing tonight through Monday
morning. Winds between 15 and 20 kts will remain longest in
northern Lynn Canal, Stephens Passage near Cape Fanshaw, near
Point Couverden, and into southern Clarence Strait as surface
ridging keeps these winds lasting a bit longer into tonight.
Clarence Strait will remain 15 to 20 kt by morning, while the rest
of the inner channels will diminish to 10 kt or less.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-032-034-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...Contino

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