819
FXAK67 PAJK 282343
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Rain showers likely Monday night and through the day Tuesday.
  Drying possible at times along the northern gulf coast on
  Tuesday.

- Winds likely to remain gusty at times through early in the week.

- Temperatures mainly seasonable with highs averaging in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A large upper level circulation over the gulf
continues to bring onshore flow Monday with showers scattered
across the entirety of the panhandle. A weak surface circulation
is expected to move into the northern gulf overnight into Tuesday
before gradually weakening and pushing inland in the vicinity of
Glacier Bay. This will lead to a weakening of the gradient over
the northern gulf and a brief transition to weak offshore flow
over the northeastern gulf coast. As this circulation progresses
into the northeast gulf on Tuesday, onshore flow and instability
aloft will become more conducive for thunderstorm potential to
shift to the southeastern gulf, to the coastal waters from Dixon
Entrance to southern Baranof Island. The primary impacts from
these would be erratic gusts and localized heavy rain quickly reducing
visibility.

Overall the pattern in the gulf remains unsettled through midweek,
as the  low deteriorates and lifts inland, before another forms
near Cook Inlet and brings a fresh batch of moisture towards the
northern half of the panhandle. Temperatures will remain
relatively unchanged through the early week, though any areas that
see more clearing could see more overnight cooling, particularly
along the northeastern coast Tuesday night. With continued
saturation in the lower levels and persistent onshore flow, patchy
fog development is not out of the question tonight, though there
is higher forecast confidence for the northeast coast Tuesday
night.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday to Sunday/...Active weather continues in a
typical Southeast Alaska fall fashion through the extended
forecast. A weakening low anchored in the gulf dissipates as it
drifts north and melts into the central gulf coast by Wednesday
morning. General upper-level, onshore flow mid week will leave the
panhandle experiencing showery activity, with higher potential
for breaks in the clouds. However, conditions are expected to
deteriorate Wednesday night into Thursday as another front
approaches. Another low moving NE out of the Pacific looks to move
over the Haida Gwaii or BC coast region Thursday; rain may cover
the southern panhandle, but another feature will drop into the
northern gulf and track east over the northern panhandle into
Friday. Continuous rain and gusty winds across the region could
last into the weekend as additional waves of moisture track across
the Gulf of Alaska. There looks to be a stronger low moving into
the western gulf with an associated frontal band arcing to the
central gulf by Saturday, bringing 20 to 30 kt winds approaching
the gulf coastal zones Saturday to Saturday night. Expect winds to
pick up along the coast and through major marine waterways, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions likely starting late Wednesday
night. Additionally, low cloud ceilings and steady rainfall will
reduce visibility, creating mountain obscuration and potential
delays for regional aviation throughout late week and the weekend.
Overall, the end of the week`s forecast will stay on the wet side
with fairly continuous rain, with higher amounts associated with
the frontal bands and lows.

&&

.AVIATION...

Flying conditions are better than they were this weekend. While
some gusty winds persist in the inner channels, winds in SE AK as
a whole have calmed down to 5-15 kt. With all the available
moisture, patchy fog may form in parts of the northern panhandle
and PAPG, though like this morning, it is likely to be shallow and
shortlived. What will not be shortlived, however, is the
continuous rain for the entire region. Vsby issues related to rain
are unlikely to cause impacts, with the exception of an isolated
shower or two towards the south, where a highly localized area
inside a shower could experience modest reductions in vsby. VFR
will be the most common condition, with cigs overnight and into
Tuesday morning lowering to near 1-2 kft for some sites, bringing
them to MVFR. Most cigs will raise to AoA 3kft by noon.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A 992mb low in the northern
Gulf of Alaska will shift eastward through Monday night, bringing
a swath of westerly fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) to the
southern gulf and easterly fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts)
through the coastal waters of the northern gulf. Onshore flow will
continue to push developing showers into the northern panhandle,
spreading southward to envelop the rest of the panhandle by
tonight. A slight chance for thunderstorm development remains
today for the northeastern gulf coast, shifting southeastward
along the coast Tuesday to follow the showers.

The low center will continue to shift eastward through Tuesday
before falling apart as it makes landfall along the northeastern
Gulf Coast Wednesday. Winds in the northern gulf will become
relatively light and variable Tuesday before starting to increase
again from the southeast Wednesday. Winds in the southern gulf
will shift southwesterly and decrease to moderate to fresh breezes
(11 to 21 kts) through Wednesday. The gulf is currently
experiencing 8 to 10 ft wave heights with a 5 to 6 ft WSW swell at
a period of 10 to 12 seconds, which will decrease to around 5 to
6 ft with a 2 to 3 ft WSW swell at a period of 6 to 8 seconds
through Wednesday following the winds.

Inside (Inner Channels): Onshore flow from a system in the
northern gulf is bringing southerly moderate to fresh breezes (11
to 21 kts) through the inner channels and widespread shower
potential through Tuesday. Currently the strongest winds are being
observed through the northern and parts of the central inner
channels, but this swath will shift southeastward into the
southern panhandle as the system tracks eastward over the next 24
hours. Northern Lynn Canal is expected to continue blowing up to
20 kts through the rest of Monday before becoming light Tuesday
morning. Overnight, the central panhandle will feel the brunt of
the winds, with 15 to 20 kt southeasterly winds increasing through
Stephens Passage, Frederick Sound, and Southern Chatham Strait.
Through Tuesday morning, the strongest winds will be increasing
through Sumner and Clarence Straits. Winds will relatively
decrease Tuesday night before another system approaches from the
northern gulf, increasing winds back to fresh breezes (17 to 21
kts) through the N/S oriented inner channels up to 20 kts in
Northern Lynn Canal Wednesday. Wave heights of 3 to 4 ft are
expected in the areas of stronger winds through Tuesday,
decreasing to a widespread 1 to 2 ft overnight before increasing
to 2 to 3 ft again in windy areas Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...VFJ
MARINE...ZTK

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