585
FXAK02 KWNH 042256
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Feb 08 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 12 2025

...Strong low to bring high winds to the Aleutians by Superbowl
Sunday...


...Overview...

The upper pattern will feature mean troughing to the west
extending across the Bering Sea and Aleutians while mean ridging
persists across the Mainland and Gulf of Alaska. Waves of energy
moving through the trough will support a few surface lows that
will track across the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea, one of
which will have the potential to bring high winds to the Aleutians
Superbowl Sunday into Monday. By early next week, the upper ridge
will likely erode to some degree over the  eastern Pacific and
southern Gulf of Alaska, letting some energy split to the south of
the ridge and allowing weak surface lows to track towards the
Canadian West Coast.


...Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...

Guidance is in relatively good agreement with a typical amount of
spread for this time frame. As expected, there are differences in
location and timing of individual low pressure systems, but model
guidance is agreeable on the overall pattern. For WPC`s forecast,
a blend of the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET were used
for days 4-5 (Saturday and Sunday), with slightly more weight
placed on the GFS/ECMWF than the CMC/UKMET. For day 6 onward
(Monday-Wednesday), ensemble means from the GEFS/ECENS/CMCE were
added to the blend in increasing amounts to smooth out differences
in deterministic model solutions while the CMC/UKMET were phased
out. The CMC/UKMET were phased out because the CMC strayed farther
from the general consensus and mean solutions later in the period
and the UKMET is unavailable after day 5. This blend retained
details of impactful lows through the weekend, and maintained
continuity with the previous forecast.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Strong upper ridging will build from the Gulf of Alaska to the
Mainland this weekend and will be sandwiched by amplified upper
troughs on either side of it. Quiet weather is expected for much
of the Mainland underneath the influence of high pressure while a
series of shortwaves bring a few surface lows across the Aleutians
into the Bering Sea. These lows will be accompanied by periods of
light to moderate precipitation and elevated winds from the
Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula and portions of the western
Mainland. There will be potential for a significantly stronger low
to impact the Aleutians Superbowl Sunday into Monday, which could
bring a threat of high winds to the area. Shortwave energy
splitting to the south of the high pressure ridge next week will
likely track south of Alaska with little to no impacts expected.
Initially, temperatures will be below average across the eastern
half of the state and above average across the western half of the
state, with the exception of cooler valley regions. Above average
temperatures will gradually expand east to encompass most of the
Mainland next week, but Southeast Alaska should remain below
average.


Dolan


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$